ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 8th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, July 8. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 refuses to fall

[4:30 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 closed 1.4 points higher (+0.02%) in a session dominated by the RBA's unexpected decision to keep rates on hold. With market expectations sitting at an ~86% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut, the index's resilience was rather intriguing.

After falling to session lows of -0.46%, the market staged a remarkable late rally to finish around breakeven. Here are a few interesting tidbits from the session:

• Market breadth remained balanced, with 102 S&P/ASX 200 constituents finishing lower while the remainder gained ground.

• Big four banks led the charge, with Commonwealth Bank (+0.8%), NAB (+0.6%), and ANZ (+0.2%) higher. Wesfarmers (+0.5%) also contributed to the late-session strength.

• Bond ticked higher, with the Australian 10-year yield up 4 basis points to 4.27% - its highest level in nearly a month.

• Sector rotation was evident, as the rate hold created clear winners and losers. Consumer staples bore the brunt of selling pressure, with Woolworths (-1.4%) and Coles (-1.7%) lower. Rate-sensitive sectors including Utilities (-1.1%) and Real Estate (-0.5%) also struggled.

The market's refusal to falter after such a policy surprise suggests an uncanny resilience. Perhaps investors are looking past today's disappointment, betting that several cuts will still materialise by year-end.

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Top gainers and losers towards close

[2:57 pm] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers towards close.

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Woolworths' odd price action

[2:52 pm] Woolworths opened around breakeven on Tuesday and spent the entire day trending lower – as if it was pricing in an RBA hold.

Woolworths intraday price chart (Source: TradingView)

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ASX 200 dips on rate decision

[2:49 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 was trading 0.28% higher heading into the interest rate decision, and dipped to lows of -0.06% shortly after the rate hold.

The index is currently settling around breakeven.

ASX 200 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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RBA unexpectedly holds rates steady

[2:42 pm] The RBA decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.85% vs. market expectations of a 25 bp cut. Here are the key takeaways from monetary policy decision:

• Cash Rate Unchanged: The RBA maintained the cash rate at 3.85%, as inflation moderates towards the 2–3% target range (trimmed mean at 2.9% in March), but recent CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, prompting the Board to await further confirmation of sustainable 2.5% inflation.

• Inflation and Economic Outlook: Uncertainties persist due to global trade policy risks (e.g. US tariffs) and domestic demand recovery, with private demand gradually improving but some sectors struggling to pass on costs.

• Uncertainties and Risks: Uncertainties include slower-than-expected domestic demand recovery, potential labour market deterioration, or stronger-than-anticipated labour outcomes, alongside uncertainties about monetary policy lags, firms’ pricing decisions, and wage responses to tight labour conditions.

• Board’s Priorities and Decision: The Board prioritises price stability and full employment, maintaining a cautious stance due to balanced inflation risks and strong labour market conditions. The decision to hold rates was made by a 6-3 majority, prioritising further data to assess global and domestic economic trends.

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Droneshield near all-time highs

[1:22 pm] DroneShield surged 7.7% and is on track for a record close after announcing a two-year R&D contract worth $11.7 million with a Five Eyes Department of Defence. The stock had been trading flat until the announcement at 12:49 pm AEST, then quickly rallied 7.5% between 1:01 pm and 1:11 pm.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Droneshield (DRO)

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ASX 200 flat ahead of rate decision

[12:30 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is trading flat (up 1 pt or +0.02%), with a relatively even split of stocks trading higher and lower. The market is showing some appetite for risk, with Tech (+0.88%) and Discretionary (+0.25%) leading to the upside, while Staples (-1.22%) and Utilities (-0.78%) lag.

ASX 200 intraday chart (Source: Market Index)

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NAB Business Survey: "Confidence and conditions lift"

[11:42 am] The June NAB Business Survey indicates stabilising business conditions, with the index spiking 8 pts to 9. Here are some of the key takeaways from the report.

Rising Business Confidence: Confidence increased for the third consecutive month to +5 index points, reaching its highest trend level in over a year, strongest in construction and weakest in retail and wholesale.

Industry and State Variations: Conditions improved in most industries, with significant gains in manufacturing and retail; Queensland and Tasmania saw the largest state-based increases, while South Australia and Western Australia experienced declines.

Capacity Utilization and Forward Orders: Capacity utilisation rose to 83.3%, above the long-run average, and forward orders improved to 0 index points, the best since September 2023, signaling recovering demand.

Cost and Price Dynamics: Purchase cost growth increased to 1.5% (quarterly equivalent), labour cost growth eased to 1.5%, and final product price growth rose to 0.6%, but retail price growth slowed to 0.6%, indicating ongoing profitability pressures.

Source: NAB Economics

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Small caps making moves

[11:30 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers in early trade.

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Analysts take on Northern Star

[10:47 am] A few more takes on Northern Star's FY26 cost and capex guidance miss.

• RBC Capital: Maintains Sector Perform, FY26 guidance miss, sustained cost pressures, and a slow start to FY26 may delay share price recovery, though long-term growth optionality remains; target lowered to $19.00 from $22.00.

• Macquarie: Maintains Outperform, FY26 capex and cost forecasts significantly exceeded expectations, with Q1 weakness flagged and KCGM execution critical for confidence; target unchanged at $27.00.

• CLSA: Maintains High-Conviction Outperform, Short-term weakness offset by a supported long-term outlook, with production CAGR underappreciated and sector inflation trends reinforced; target lowered to $24.30 from $25.20.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:32 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Platinum Asset Management enters into binder merger with L1 Capital

[10:07 am] Platinum Asset Management has entered into a merger implementation deed with L1 Capital. The key terms of the merger include:

• L1 shareholders to own 74% of the combined group, Platinum shareholders to own 26%

• Platinum shareholders will receive 'In-Perimeter' performance fees related to the first 3.5% of absolute returns generated by L1 Capital's Long Short funds and mandates

• Merger to be double digit EPS accretive in the next twelve months, over 30% EPS accretive in FY27

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Platinum Asset Management (PTM)

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Ryder Capital lifts final dividend

[9:48 am] Ryder Capital reported a pre-tax net tangible asset (NTA) return of 27.5% for FY25 (after fees and expenses, excluding franking credits), significantly outperforming the S&P All Ords Accumulation by 13.2%.

Strong gains drove performance, with core holdings delivering significant returns: SRG Holdings (+113%), BCI Minerals (+55%), Fleetwood (+75%), Count (+75%), The Reject Shop (+101%), and Macmahon Holdings (+9%). Janison Education (-47%) was the only notable detractor, with expected recovery in FY26.

The Board has declared a final fully franked dividend of 5.5 cents per share, up 10% year-on-year and represents a yield of approximately 3.98% based on Monday's close ($1.38).

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Ryder Capital (RYD)

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Gold Road to hit lower end of production guidance

[9:31 am] Gold Road said it expects Gruyere's FY25 gold production (50% owned) to be at the lower end of 325,000-355,000 ounce guidance, while AISC is expected to be around the top end of its A$2,400-2,600 per ounce guidance.

During the June quarter, the company sold 37,741 ounces at an average sales price of A$5,131 per ounce, while cash and equivalents rose 18.8% quarter-on-quarter to $242.2 million.

The company noted zero hedging, hence 100% exposed to spot gold prices.

While the implied FY25 outcomes sound soft, it does appear relatively baked into market expectations. Macquarie (Apr-25) forecasts FY25 production of 163.4koz at AISC of A$2,566.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Gold Road (GOR)

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Arafura's potential $175 million funding enters appraisal phase

[9:26 am] Arafura has advanced to the appraisal phase for potential equity investment from the German Raw Materials Fund (GRMF), with investments typically ranging from €50 million to €150 million.

Arafura is seeking up to €100 million (A$175 million) tied to neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) supply from its Nolans Project.

The German Federal Government allocated €1 billion to the GRMF in September 2024 to secure critical raw materials for German industry, enhance supply chain resilience, and support the economy, with the Nolans Project aligning with these goals through its NdPr supply to Siemens Gamesa for wind turbine magnets.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Arafura Rare Earths (ARU)

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Cochlear receives FDA approval for new products

[9:23 am] Cochlear has received FDA approval for its Nucleus Nexa System, Nucleus Kanso 3 and Kanso 3 Nexa Sound Processors, with the company expecting to launch these products in the US by the end of the September quarter.

The approval comes after Cochlear downgraded its FY25 earnings guidance on June 12th, citing weaker-than-expected Services revenue and softer implant sales in developed markets. Despite this setback, the stock recovered strongly, finishing the session 1.2% higher after opening 8.4% lower.

The launch of the Nucleus Nexa System has drawn significant attention and is widely viewed as a major technological leap. Analysts generally see features like internal memory and upgradeable firmware as offering a clear competitive edge that should support medium-term market share gains and stronger patient and clinical outcomes. While near-term earnings face pressure, Cochlear's product pipeline led by Nexa is expected to drive share gains and support a return to double-digit earnings growth beyond FY25.

The announcement was marked as non-market sensitive, so I assume FDA approval was widely anticipated.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Cochlear (COH)

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Vault Minerals attracting suitors

[9:14 am] Vault Minerals is reportedly attracting interest from at least two foreign parties for a potential takeover due to surging gold prices.

Without citing sources, these potential buyers are believed to be based in Indonesia and North Asia.

Source: The Australian

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Bell Potter sees 75% upside in Titomic

[9:08 am] Bell Potter initiated coverage of proprietary cold spray technology company Titomic, with a $0.50 target (vs. 28.5 cent close). Here are the key takeaways from the research report:

• Proprietary Cold Spray Technology: Titomic leverages its proprietary cold spray technology for metal coating, repairs, and additive manufacturing (AM), offering portable low-to-medium-pressure systems for equipment repairs and corrosion prevention, and high-pressure systems for AM of specialty alloy components.

• Key Markets: Focuses on defence, aerospace, and natural resources sectors, providing AM advantages like faster production and reduced waste compared to other 3D printing methods.

• Defence and Aerospace Engagements: TTT is engaged in qualification processes and commercial partnerships with major defence contractors (e.g. Boeing, Northrop Grumman) for AM applications in aerospace and military settings, alongside direct collaborations with the Royal Netherlands Army for in-field repairs.

• Resources Sector: Partnerships with oil and gas companies, including Woodside and Monadelphous for onsite repairs and maintenance using TTT's technology.

• US Market Expansion: In June 2025, TTT opened a new US headquarters in Alabama, supported by a management team and board with extensive defence and aerospace experience, positioning the company to capitalise on the growing US market.

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Citi lowers Northern Star target price

[9:05 am] Northern Star shares tumbled 8.6% on Monday after the company's FY26 guidance flagged higher-than-expected costs and capex.

As a result, Citi cut its target price from $22.00 to $21.00, but retained a Buy rating. Here are some of the key takeaways from the research report:

• Northern Star guided to FY26 gold production of 1.7-1.85Moz, in-line with Citi expectations but short of the company's prior 2.0Moz outlook

• FY26 AISC guidance of A$2,300-2,700/oz was 13% higher than Citi at the midpoint and 15% above consensus

• Growth capex of $1.985-2.12bn also higher than Citi expectations of $1.9bn

• Including higher sustaining capex (estimated at ~$400/oz), total capex (excluding exploration) reaches $2.85bn, compared to Citi’s prior $2.4bn. With $225m for exploration, total spending exceeds $3bn, a ~25% miss versus expectations, with capex rising nearly $2bn over the past year.

The higher-than-expected costs and capex are seen as a guidance issue, with market digestion likely to persist until the KCGM update, posing further share price downside risks.

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Market sentiment and positioning

[8:57 am] A few interesting data points from various US brokers overnight.

• BofA's Bull & Bear indicator hit 6.0 last week, the highest since November 2024, driven by strong global stock market breadth, large inflows into high-yield bonds and robust credit market technicals. Though this was slightly offset by weak equity fund inflows, bearish hedge fund positioning and growing demand for protection against potential S&P 500 weakness.

• Goldman Sachs says CTAs are likely to continue buying in the near-term, while retail traders have been providing support in recent months. They argued domestic buying has helped offset weaker foreign flows into US stocks.

• JPMorgan notes retail buying slowed in June, while sentiment levels are significantly lower than levels earlier this year.

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Oil prices still ticking higher

[8:48 am] Brent crude and WTI gained 0.2 and 2.1% overnight, shrugging off the impact of OPEC's unexpected output hike over the weekend.

OPEC+ announced an accelerated revival of oil production, adding 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, following 411,000-barrel hikes in May, June, and July, reversing a 2.2 million-barrel cut from 2023 a year earlier than expected.

Saudi Aramco raised premiums for its flagship crude in Asia, signaling optimism despite the surplus risk, supported by tight current market conditions, declining US crude and diesel inventories, and peak summer demand.

Analysts warn of rising trade tensions and a potential winter glut, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a Q4 surplus of 1.5% of global consumption, posing downside risks to oil prices over the next 6–12 months.

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Liberation Day vibes are back

[8:45 am] Trump has issued new tariff rates on key trading partners, outlined in letters posted on Truth Social. This includes:

• 25% on goods from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Kazakhstan

• 30% on South Africa

• 40% on Laos and Myanmar

• Additional letters are expected over the next couple of days

The tariff announcements led to a decline in US stocks, with the S&P 500 down 0.79%, marking its worst day in three weeks. The US dollar strengthened, yields ticked higher and gold gained, reflecting market uncertainty driven by Trump’s unpredictable trade policies.

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Good morning!

[8:35 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are currently down 47pts (-0.55%) after Trump began sending out letters that threaten higher tariff rates on key trading partners from 1 August. This drove US benchmarks broadly lower, bond yields slightly higher and placed downward pressure on commodities including copper and aluminium.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.