Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips on weaker banks, healthcare as uranium melt-up continues

Uranium stocks lit up the ASX for the second day in a row, with strong gains across the sector as investors continued to react to positive news developments from Sprott's US$200 million capital raise to purchase physical uranium.

Elsewhere, stocks failed to follow strong US leads from Monday night, with most sectors hovering within 1% of breakeven. Gold stocks bounced back, but only very modestly compared to yesterday's heavy losses, and big banks and healthcare stocks were a little softer.

Takeover target Santos (STO) (+0.51%) managed another gain, but stablemate Woodside Energy (WDS) (-1.0%) couldn't maintain its also-recent winning ways.

In the iron ore majors, a softer commodity price weighed on BHP Group (BHP) (-0.37%) and Fortescue (FMG) (-0.38%), but Rio Tinto (RIO) (+0.04%) was flat. It was just that kind of day 😴!

But given all the noise going on in markets at the moment, what with trade wars and real wars going on – a bit of a snoozefest on the Aussie market probably isn't such a terrible thing!

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Uranium in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 7.1 points lower at 8,541.3, 0.30% from its session high and 0.19% from its low. Despite the narrow loss in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers managed to pip decliners by 149 to 137.

Today's blue chip winners:

Today's blue chip lowers:

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

If it can’t go down…it’ll probably go up! 📈 (click here for full size image)

Monday’s candle is exactly the kind of thing that demonstrates why you keep hearing me say the words “stay the course here”.

That’s what a trend follower does: Read the evidence, decide when a trend is intact, when it might be changing, and when it has changed.

Despite Friday’s candle being a clear supply-side showing, there just wasn’t enough evidence in total to suggest that the prevailing short and long term trends on the Comp had changed. It’s all about weight of evidence – and there simply wasn’t enough evidence to indicate the supply-side had grappled control.

So, stay the course 🛳️.

Which is where we are today, again, but with the reassurance of another higher trough / point of demand at 19367. Monday’s candle is a decisive demand-side showing, completely wiping out Friday’s negativity and then some – never doubt the bulls in a bull market!

19367 nicely sets the 18847-19242 zone as a key area of excess demand. It’s pretty simple, as long as we continue to close above it – and the coincidently corresponding short term uptrend ribbon – then the Comp’s short term uptrend remains intact.

Supply is 19801-20205, but likely closer to 20205 than 19801. It’s really all there is now. It’s the main event – the big show.

Fail there, and the demand-side might begin to lose confidence, it might pull back its cash preferring the relative safety that this affords…

At the same time, the supply-side may feel greater motivation to sell, fearing they may not get another chance…

We’ll see this manifest as supply-side candles (i.e., black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows). It’s the upward pointing shadows in 19801-20205 you particularly want to watch out for – classic sell the rally stuff.

But I think this scenario is a far lesser probability than the one that sees us sooner rather than later dislodging that pesky sell at the all-time high for the sake of it supply. Hey, trade war, real war, we’ve come this far…this is something I’ve come to believe that might help you think more like a trend follower:

If it can’t go down…it’ll probably go up! 📈

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

If it can’t go down…it’ll probably go up! 📈 (click here for full size image)

A disappointing session today – not tracking the strong positive move in risk sentiment evidenced on the Comp. But to be fair, we didn’t fall yesterday in response to the Comp’s very scary Friday candle – so, I guess we should take it and be happy.

Given all the noise in markets at the moment, neutral probably isn’t that bad. Hey – if it can’t go down, it’ll probably go up, remember!? 😁

There’s very little to add here to previous analysis. Supply is 8640. It needs to be cracked decisively (none of this annoying making a new high with a long upward pointing shadow business 🚫!).

Demand is at 8380-8453, but more generally, at the short term uptrend ribbon. The XJO’s short term uptrend remains intact until we close below both of those.

So, I’m staying the course on the XJO unless I see a good reason not to…e.g. close below demand / some really nasty supply-side candles / lower peak to 8640.

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

If it can’t go down…it’ll probably go up! 📈 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered uranium was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 11-Jun.

In that update, and can I say what a difference a few days and some exogenous news makes…things are looking pretty dire for the uranium price.

As in before = 🌵⚰️

And yet now = 💃🥳

Hey, I can only call what I can see on the chart when I look at it, not what news is about to break to change the balance/imbalance between demand and supply.

That’s what news can do / often does…Trend followers are flexible and understand that things change, and things change to shift the demand-supply environment.

The close back above the long term trend ribbon is important – it’s the exact thing we wanted to see prior to the short term trend rolling over and the long term downtrend resuming as per the 11-Jun update.

So, again, all I can do is call what I see – and what I see is a strong demand-side pulse that has resumed the short term uptrend and neutralised the long term downtrend. Monday’s close also consumed the 71.70-71.80 points of supply, as well as knocked out the latent excess supply we’d ordinarily associate with the long term downtrend ribbon.

All good stuff 👍.

You know the drill as far as how my model assesses when a new bull market has begun. “Bull market” for me simply means long term uptrend. It will occur when:

Short term uptrend (i.e., short term trend ribbon is light green)

Demand-side price action (this is not strictly the case as we are technically rising peaks and falling troughs – but should a trough form at/above the long term trend ribbon – i.e., see last point below = our trigger – this will rectify itself)

Predominantly demand-side candles (moot point here as all we’ve got on this data set is closing prices!)

The long term trend ribbon demonstrates it is acting as a zone of dynamic demand (i.e., we see a trough / point of demand set at/above the long term trend ribbon)

That higher trough will confirm the demand-side is buying the dip, and assuming only a shallow pullback to form it – that the supply side has backed away significantly.

That’s my bit done, it’s up to the market now! 🧐

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Tuesday

• 22:30 USA Core Retail Sales May m/m (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.1% m/m previous)

Wednesday

• 00:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index (35 points forecast vs 34 points previous)

• 10:30 AUS Leading Index

• 22:30 USA Building & Housing Permits May (1.43 million and 1.36 million forecast vs 1.41 million and 1.36 million in April respectively)

Thursday

• 04:00 USA Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement & FOMC Economic Projections (no change at 4.5% forecast)

• 04:30 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell press conference

• 11:30 AUS Employment Change May (+19,900 forecast vs +89,000 in April; rate unchanged at 4.1%)

• ALL DAY USA - US markets closed Thursday for Juneteenth National Independence Day

Friday

• 11:00 CHN 1-yr & 5-yr Loan Prime Rate (no change at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively forecast)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA CB Leading Index m/m (-0.1% forecast vs -1.0% previous)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +22.2% Green Critical Minerals (GCM) – VHD Graphite Plant Commissioned - Production To Commence, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.8% Metal Powder Works (MPW) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📈

• +14.0% Cettire (CTT) – Change in substantial holding (First Sentier Investors increase from 5.17% to 7.37%) and Change of Company Secretary.

• +11.8% Bannerman Energy (BMN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.8% Alligator Energy (AGE) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +11.5% Elevate Uranium (EL8) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +11.4% Lotus Resources (LOT) – Kayelekera Restart Commissioning Commenced, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +11.1% St George Mining (SGQ) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +7.4% Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) – No news since 16-Jun N, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +7.3% Resolute Mining (RSG) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +7.0% Bellevue Gold (BGL) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.5% MTM Critical Metals (MTM) – MTM & Meteoric Sign MOU After Successful REE Testwork, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.2% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.7% Deep Yellow (DYL) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.5% Weebit Nano (WBT) – Weebit's operations unaffected despite Middle East situation.

• +5.2% Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE) – Airport and Data Centre Awards.

• +4.7% WA1 Resources (WA1) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +4.4% Paladin Energy (PDN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +4.1% BetaShares Global Uranium ETF (URN) – No news, Uranium miners ETF.

• +4.0% Meteoric Resources (MEI) – MOU Signed with MTM Following Breakthrough MREC Testwork, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -14.5% St Barbara (SBM) – FY25 Production and Cost Guidance Update and Simberi Mining Lease Early Renewal Update.

• -3.7% Healius (HLS) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.7% EML Payments (EML) – No news.

• -3.6% Trigg Minerals (TMG) – No news, today's move is consistent with recent volatility.

• -3.3% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Life360 (360)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: US$71.00 from US$57.00

Abacus Group (ABG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.350

Adriatic Metals (ADT)

• Upgraded to hold from trim at Morgans; Price Target: $5.46 from $4.74

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.400

ASX (ASX)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $68.50 from $71.50

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $69.10

Accent Group (AX1)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.670 from $2.61

Aurizon (AZJ)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.40

• Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $3.15 from $3.20

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $3.79

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.39 from $3.32

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.20

Bega Cheese (BGA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.40

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $39.50 from $47.40

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.60

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.40

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.50

Charter Hall Long Wale Reit (CLW)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.40

Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.00

• Upgraded to accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.39 from $3.86

Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $13.55

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure/Notes (DBI)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.15

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.80

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $15.00

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.50 from $18.05

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.00

Homeco Daily Needs Reit (HDN)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.460 from $1.300

IVE Group (IGL)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.40

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.50

Ioneer (INR)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.190 from $0.200

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.00

Lendlease Group (LLC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.50

Lunnon Metals (LM8)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.600

Light & Wonder (LNW)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $188.00 from $187.00

Meteoric Resources (MEI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.350

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.30

Metcash (MTS)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.00

National Storage Reit (NSR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.70

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.10

Peninsula Energy (PEN)

• Retained at hold at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.000

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.30

Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (QRI)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.600

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.40

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $119.50

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.75 from $4.20

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.90

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

Syntara (SNT)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.120

Santos (STO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.50 from $7.60

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $8.34 from $6.70

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.85 from $8.50

• Downgraded to trim from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $6.90

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.90 from $7.50

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $7.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.90

Tourism Rentals (THL)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.92

TPG Telecom (TPG)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.75 from $5.25

Titan Minerals (TTM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.200 from $1.180

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.40

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.20

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.20

Scans