Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 bounces on oil price pullback, Uranium stocks soar

ASX 200 futures are up 5pts (+0.05%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• US stocks recovered most of last Friday's weakness, driven by a pullback in oil prices and hopes of a contained Middle East conflict

• Uranium stocks surged on reports that Sprott is buying ~$100m of physical uranium

• Mining services companies including Emeco, Macmahon and Perenti reaffirm FY25 guidances

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, finished near best levels and recovered most of last Friday’s Israel-Iran driven selloff

• Risk-on move driven by improved geopolitical headlines, Trump says Iran wants to talk about de-escalation, though Israeli officials said they will continue operations against Iran regardless of talks

• Oil prices pull back as Israel has largely avoided Iranian energy and export facilities, no explicit threat from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz (which is seen as the catalyst that will push oil prices over US$100)

• IPOs are surging in debut/first sessions at the fastest pace in three and a half years (BBG)

• Gas prices could see modest jump due to spike in oil prices, but increase to be short-lived (YF)

• Bond investors continue to shy away from longer-dated Treasuries (Reuters)

• Japan bond volatility spreading to other markets with Treasuries more sensitive to moves in Japan (BBG)

STOCKS

• Meta to begin showing ads inside WhatsApp, add paid subscriptions (FT)

• Amazon to invest US$13bn in Australian data centers, marking nation's largest tech commitment (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Multiple central banks to meet this week, with many expected to hold rates amid uncertainty around trade disruptions and inflation risks (BBG)

• ECB seen cutting once more in 2025 despite cautious signals (BBG)

• BoE faces pressure for more rate cuts as UK economy stalls (BBG)

• Swiss National Bank to cut rates to zero amid deflation pressures (BBG)

• BOJ to keep rates unchanged today, but consider tapering its bond purchases at a slower pace (BBG)

GEOPOLITICS

• Netanyahu says he's not ruling out taking out Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, notes he is not interested in peace talks (ABC)

• Iran asked Gulf countries to press President Trump to approach Israel on agreeing to an immediate ceasefire (RT)

• Israel to continue military operations against Iran regardless of any peace negotiations between US-Iran (BBG)

• Israel, Iran trade attacks for fourth day, stoking fears of an all-out war that could drag in other countries (BBG)

• Trump holds out hope for negotiations but says they may need to 'fight it out' first (BBG)

• Iran says won't negotiate over nuclear program while being attacked (RT)

TARIFFS

• Trump and UK PM Starmer meet next week to finalise a trade pact (RT)

ECONOMY

• China's retail sales jump 6.4% in May, fastest since 2023 as subsidies drive consumption (CNBC)

• China new home prices fell 0.22% in May, the largest decline in seven months, while used home prices fell 0.5%, the sharpest decline in eight months (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Apollo sells 4.8% stake in Challenger for $7.45 per share (AFR)

• Emeco reaffirms FY25 operating EBITDA of $300m, well played to deliver earnings growth in FY26 (EHL)

• Macmahon reaffirms FY25 EBITDA guidance of $160-175m (MAH)

• Perenti reaffirms FY25 revenue guidance of $3.4-3.6bn, work-in-hand has increase due to recent contract wins, significant tender opportunities remain for future growth in key regions (PRN)

• Southern Cross Electrical awarded airport and data centre projects worth over $70m (SXE)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Market resilience: The strength we're seeing in equity markets amid this Middle East crisis is taking most by surprise. Overnight's pullback in oil prices—with Brent crude down 2.6% from session highs of +3.9%—provided a tailwind, suggesting the conflict may not disrupt production.

• Oil and gold pullback: Risk-on overnight session that weighed on some of the winners of geopolitical volatility, like defensives, energy and gold.

• Uranium volatility: Paladin Energy, Boss and Deep Yellow rallied 15-21% yesterday after Sprott announced plans to purchase $100m worth of physical uranium (a bullish catalyst for uranium prices, also tends to drive prices higher by taking supply off the market). Amazon's US$13bn investment into local data centres is also seen as a positive take for uranium/nuclear energy. The Global X Uranium ETF rallied strongly, up 5.3% to close at the highest level since April 2013. Though, the gains for local equities are far outpacing international peers.

BROKER MOVES

• ASX downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $68.50 from $71.50 (JPM)

• Regis Resources downgraded to Sell from Neutral but target up to $4.75 from $4.20 (UBS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 17 Jun: None

• Wed 18 Jun: Aft Pharmaceuticals (AFP) – $0.011

• Thu 19 Jun: None

• Fri 20 Jun: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Embark Early Education (EVO)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: VBX (VBX) at 11:00 am 

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 1:00 pm: BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Ests: Hold at 0.50%)

• 10:30 pm: US Retail Sales (May)