ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 17th June
The S&P/ASX 200 is set for a relatively quiet start as the market digests the latest Israel-Iran developments. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, June 17. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 slips as headlines turn volatile, but price action remains quiet
[4:15 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.08% in a relatively calm session despite Iran launching a new wave of drone and missile attacks against Israel.
While the market has declined in three of the last four sessions, the total fall remains modest at just 0.59%. This sluggish price action reflects the market's reluctance to fall much from record levels.
Breadth was mixed with roughly equal numbers of S&P/ASX 200 constituents finishing higher and lower. At the sector level, an odd mix of Real Estate, Tech, Staples and Materials managed to post gains.
Bank of Japan holds rates steady
[2:15 pm] The BOJ maintained its benchmark policy rate at 0.5% after a two-day meeting, as expected by all 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The central bank also announced a slower withdrawal from the bond market starting next fiscal year, reducing monthly bond purchases by 200 billion yen (US$1.34bn) quarterly instead of the current 400 billion yen.
Here are some additional key takeaways:
Market Stability Focus: The cautious approach follows recent volatility in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), with the BOJ aiming to avoid unsettling investors while exiting its role as Japan’s largest bond buyer.
Continued Bond Reduction: The BOJ will stick to its current plan of cutting monthly purchases by 400 billion yen per quarter until the new plan begins in April 2026.
Market Intervention Stance: The BOJ reiterated readiness to intervene if bond yields spike sharply, though the threshold for action is higher than during its yield curve control program.
Market Reaction: Japanese bond futures slightly declined, the yen remained stable, short-maturity bond yields rose marginally, and super-long bond yields dipped slightly post-decision.
Zip hits four month high
[1:30 pm] Zip has hit a fresh four-month high, currently up 4.1% to $2.75.
The stock has traded in a narrow range over the past three sessions following a sharp 15% rally on June 11, which was driven by an FY25 earnings upgrade.
The upgrade saw management lift cash EBITDA guidance from "at least $153 million" to "at least $160 million"—a 4.5% increase—based on continued momentum in the US market.
UBS analysts responded the following day by raising their target price from $3.20 to $3.40 while maintaining their Buy rating.
"Impressively, ZIP's accelerating US customer growth comes while credit loss performance remains unchanged. In our view this leaves capacity to invest harder into marketing in the US to generate greater net new customer growth from here, supporting the medium-term top-line outlook," the analysts noted.
Defence stocks are on a tear
[1:15 pm] The ASX has few defence stocks, but the handful that do exist are on a tear — notably:
Droneshield (ASX: DRO): Shares are up 48% in the past month and 150% year-to-date, trading at levels not seen since July 2024
Electro Optic Systems (ASX: EOS): Shares have only recently started to catch a bid, up 115% in the past month. Before the recent move, the stock was flat year-to-date
Uranium stocks surge for second day
[11:45 am] Uranium stocks are running hot, with most names up 5-10%.
On Monday, Sprott announced a US$100 million financing (now increased to US$200m) "bought deal" financing, which will be used to purchase physical.
"At current spot prices, this equates to ~2.6mlbs U3O8 to be bought. We believe momentum in U3O8 prices will bring more utilities to the market further accelerating U3O8 prices," Citi analysts said in a note this morning.
Top large cap gainers include Bannerman Energy (+12.6%), Deep Yellow (+10.1%), Lotus Resources (+9.7%), Boss Energy (+6.9%) and Paladin Energy (+4.6%). All these names have rallied between 20-34% in the past week.
Small caps making moves
[11:00 pm] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) winners and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
WTN | Winton Land | 14.02% | $1.87 |
DTR | Dateline Resources | 10.00% | $0.11 |
BMN | Bannerman Energy | 9.12% | $3.23 |
BKY | Berkeley Energia | 9.09% | $0.60 |
SXE | Southern Cross Electrical | 7.27% | $1.77 |
LOT | Lotus Resources | 6.86% | $0.19 |
MTM | Mtm Critical Metals | 6.48% | $0.58 |
GNG | Gr Engineering Services | 6.06% | $3.15 |
BRE | Brazilian Rare Earths | 5.33% | $2.37 |
C79 | Chrysos Corporation | 5.26% | $5.00 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
SBM | St Barbara | -11.32% | $0.34 |
EEG | Empire Energy Group | -5.13% | $0.19 |
ARU | Arafura Rare Earths | -4.44% | $0.17 |
PMT | Patriot Battery Metals | -3.85% | $0.25 |
MAU | Magnetic Resources | -3.59% | $1.61 |
ERD | Eroad | -3.24% | $1.35 |
AVR | Anteris Technologies | -2.86% | $6.46 |
BLX | Beacon Lighting | -2.78% | $3.50 |
FFM | Firefly Metals | -2.78% | $1.05 |
MEK | Meeka Metals | -2.78% | $0.18 |
Top gainers and losers at the open
[10:35 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
LTR | Liontown Resources | 6.02% | $0.71 |
PDN | Paladin Energy | 5.49% | $7.68 |
PLS | Pilbara Minerals | 4.96% | $1.38 |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | 4.74% | $9.72 |
ZIP | Zip Co | 4.36% | $2.76 |
XYZ | Block | 3.65% | $99.35 |
IFT | Infratil | 3.21% | $9.96 |
NEM | Newmont | 3.16% | $89.87 |
MSB | Mesoblast | 2.69% | $1.91 |
PXA | Pexa Group | 2.26% | $13.13 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
PME | Pro Medicus | -3.12% | $265.82 |
GMD | Genesis Minerals | -2.72% | $4.65 |
RRL | Regis Resources | -2.67% | $4.74 |
LLC | Lendlease Group | -1.95% | $5.54 |
JHX | James Hardie | -1.58% | $39.29 |
CDA | Codan | -1.51% | $19.60 |
IFL | Insignia Financial | -1.44% | $3.42 |
BWP | Bwp Trust | -1.22% | $3.64 |
ALD | Ampol | -1.12% | $25.57 |
WDS | Woodside Energy | -1.12% | $25.67 |
St Barbara cuts FY25 guidance
[10:15 am] St Barbara shares have slumped 11% in early trade after the company cut its FY25 production guidance due to recent high rainfall events in Simberi, PNG.
Heavy rainfall (>100mm, including >60mm from June 13-15) at Simberi disrupted the second phase of silt removal at Pigibo Central pit, flooding the pit and delaying access to the final two benches until late June, pushing production into July.
St Barbara now expects:
Full-year gold production of 50-52koz vs. prior guidance of 55-65koz (15% downgrade at the midpoint)
All-in sustaining cost of A$4,400-4,700/oz vs. prior guidance of A$3,900-4,200/oz (12.3% increase at the midpoint)
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: St Barbara (SBM)
UBS lifts Life360 target
[9:50 am] UBS has lifted its target price for Life360 to US$71 (from US$57), citing:
WWDC Impact: Apple’s WWDC showed no aggressive push into Life360’s “Find My” offering, reducing competitive concerns, and Apple’s focus on privacy (e.g., advanced fingerprinting protection in Safari with iOS26) supports Life360’s positioning.
Positive Outlook: UBS remains bullish on Life360 due to potential App Store fee relief in the US, faster ad monetisation, and expansion into Pet/Elder monitoring.
Ad Innovations: Life360 introduced “Place Ads” (location-based ads triggered by user location, e.g., Uber’s campaign yielding 100K+ rides at airports) and “Uplift” (deterministic footfall measurement for ad campaigns, providing metrics like attributed lift at the household level).
Ad Potential: With 83M+ monthly active users (MAUs) and ~95% sharing location data, Place Ads and Uplift are expected to appeal to retailers and brands, though user tolerance for frequent ads (app opened 5x/day) and default ad settings remain uncertain.
Life360's US-listed CDIs trade at a 3:1 ratio, which implies an Australian dollar target price of A$36.31 (vs. last close of A$31.58).
Ive Group lifts FY25 profit guidance
[9:45 am] Marketing and communications company Ive Group upgraded its FY25 NPAT guidance to $52 million vs. prior guidance of $47-50 million (7.2% increase at the midpoint).
The guidance does not include losses from its Lasoo business (expected to mirror FY24 losses of $4.4m) and restructuring costs of $2.0-2.5 million).
Net debt is expected to be "well below" the company's internal benchmark, at 1.5x pre-AASB16 EBITDA, which supports an annual dividend of 18 cents per share and the current on-market buyback of up to $10 million.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Ive Group (IGL)
DigiCo issues FY25 dividend
[9:40 am] DigiCo Infrastructure REIT has issued a full-year dividend of 19.90 cents per share, in-line with prospectus forecasts. This represents a dividend yield of approximately 2.85% based on the stock's close on Monday ($3.82).
The stock will trade ex-dividend on 27 June, with a payable date of 30 June.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT)
Crude oil prices spike on Trump post
[9:30 am] Crude oil prices spiked around 2.6% to US$71.4 a barrel between 8:30-8:40 am AEDT after a Trump post on Truth Social:
"Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!"
Prices are currently holding those gains, which could drive some upward pressure on local energy stocks.
Source: Truth Social
Citi's take on oil prices
[9:20 am] Citi published a brief report on its near-term oil price outlook as a result of the Israel-Iran conflict. Here are the key takeaways:
Brent oil prices surged to US$77-78 a barrel twice in the past three business days, now at US$75, a 25% increase from April lows of US$60, exceeding their US$60-65 forecast for the second half of 2025.
No significant impact on oil output or exports, with the price rally is driven by a US$10-15 a barrel geopolitical risk premium due to potential disruptions from the Israel-Iran conflict.
The risk premium is substantial but justified by the high magnitude and increasing probability of supply disruptions, though not the base case scenario.
Brent is expected to trade between US$70-80 in the near term, with the long-term forecast remaining at US$60-65, pending geopolitical stability and political certainty in Iran.
For the risk premium to widen, significant disruptions (e.g., at Kharg Island or the Strait of Hormuz) or escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict would be needed.
Supply disruption risks are high but not expected, due to potential involvement of other countries, pressure on Iran and Israel to avoid escalation, and improved Iran-Gulf state relations.
Mining services companies reaffirm guidance
[9:15 am] Several mining services companies reaffirmed their FY25 guidance this morning, including:
Perenti: Reaffirmed FY25 revenue guidance of $3.4-3.6bn, says second half of FY25 has performed in-line with expectations, work-in-hand has increased strongly due to recent contract wins (Agnew $500m, Obuasi $1bn and Mana $1.1bn) (Presentation)
Emeco: Reaffirmed FY25 operating EBITDA of $300m, says second half operating EBIT to drive return on capital to ~18%, well-placed to deliver earnings growth in FY26 (Presentation)
Macmahon: Reaffirmed FY25 underlying EBIT(A) of $160-176m, order book at $4.3bn and $2.2bn of secured revenue for FY25 (Presentation)
Lotus to adopt owner-operator strategy, slashes mining costs
[9:10 am] Lotus Resources is on track to become the market's next uranium producer, with first production scheduled for the third quarter of 2025.
The company says it will adopt an owner-operator mining strategy, which offers enhanced control over mining production.
An initial investment of ~$8 million in mining equipment and tools is expected to reduce mining costs, which account for approximately a third of C1 cash costs.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Lotus Resources (LOT)
Southern Cross Electrical awarded $70m in new projects
[9:05 am] Southern Cross Electrical has secured projects worth over $70 million, including:
Subsidiary Heyday was awarded the Western Sydney Airport Stand Alone Facilities Project by CPB Contractors, involving two major work packages.
J Hutchinson Pty awarded Heyday two additional electrical work packages for a hyperscale data centre in Sydney’s west, bringing the total packages at the site to six.
Western Sydney Airport starts immediately, with completion set for 1Q27
Data centre projects also start immediately, scheduled for 1Q26 completion
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Southern Cross Electrical (SXE)
Here comes Q2 earnings season
[8:55 am] The June quarter is coming to an end and the market is looking for S&P 500 earnings to increase 4.9% in Q2, according to Factset. This marks a sharp deceleration from 13.3% in Q1 and would mark the slowest rate of growth since the December quarter 2023. Here are some of the key expectations for the upcoming US earnings season:
Net profit margin for Q2 expected at 12.3%, down from 12.7% in Q1 but above the 12.2% from a year ago and the five-year average of 11.7%.
Bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2 dropped 4.1% to $62.85 from $65.55, underperforming historical declines of 3.0% (5-year), 3.1% (10-year), and 3.3% (15-year).
Q1 earnings season exceeded expectations, with positive factors including tariff mitigation, significant AI capex commitments, resilient consumer spending, and strong margins.
Stockpiling and demand pull-in ahead of tariffs provided support in Q1, expected to continue in Q2.
Uncertainty around the July 9, 2025, reciprocal tariff deadline is a key factor for Q2 guidance.
Apollo offloads Challenger stake to TAL
[8:50 am] Apollo is selling its ~10% stake in Challenger, and has agreed to sell 4.8% of its stake to TAL Dai-ichi Life, a Japanese life insurer, at $7.45 per share, pending regulatory approval.
The sale brings TAL's stake in Challenger to the maximum 19.9% allowed under takeover rules without triggering a bid.
Apollo has authorised Goldman Sachs to sell its remaining 5.1% stake in Challenger through a block trade to fund managers. This sale ends Apollo’s four-year investment in Challenger, which began in 2021 when it acquired the stake from Caledonia at ~$6 per share.
Source: AFR
What's driving stocks?
[8:35 am] Major US benchmarks recovered most of last Friday's declines, buoyed by:
Conflict between Iran and Israel continues, though Iran is seeking de-escalation
Israeli officials said they will continue with attacks against Iran regardless of talks
Oil prices pulled back, with Brent crude down -2.6% to US$72.4, down from session highs of +3.9% (US$77.3)
Other potential bullish drivers include optimism around earnings outlook, investors still generally under-weight equities, muted VIX and support from recent string of cool inflation data
Good morning!
[8:30 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are up 5pts (+0.05%) following Monday's relatively buoyant session, where the market finished breakeven.
Apologies for no Blog yesterday. I had some appointments during the day. We're working on additional resources to ensure continuity of the blog during my absences.
If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.
