Woodside guides to 20% higher oil output in 2023; shares slump

Tue 29 Nov 22, 10:15am (AEST)
Oil rig with gas pipeline 1
Source: iStock

Key Points

  • Woodside said it expects to produce 180-190 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2023
  • Last month, the company upgraded its 2022 guidance to 153-157 million barrels
  • Capital expenditure is forecast to jump to US$4-4.3bn in 2022 to US$6.0-6.5bn in 2023

Woodside (ASX: WDS) has provided investors with guidance for what to expect in 2023, including costs, production, gas exposure and sales forecasts.

The outlook appears to have fallen short of market expectations, with Woodside shares down -4.9% in early trade.

2023 Guidance: Output and capex boost

Production: Woodside guided to 180-190 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe). This represents a 19.4% (midpoint) increase against the company's 2022 full-year guidance of 153-157MMboe.

The production guidance assumes:

  • Sangomar Field Development Phase 1 is expected to hit first production in late 2023 but no contribution is included in 2023 forecasts

  • Mad Dog Phase 2 is undergoing commissioning and forecast to come online in mid-2023

  • Pluto LNG has a major turnaround planned for 2Q23 and expected to last approximately four weeks

To add some perspective, Woodside's production in the third quarter of 2022 was 51.2MMboe, up 52% compared to the prior quarter. The jump in production reflected the first full three months of contribution from the former BHP petroleum business.

Production breakdown: Woodside expects the following split by product type.


2023 Guidance (MMboe)

Percentage (midpoint)




Pipeline gas



Crude and condensate




Natural gas liquids






Source: Company data | Table: Market Index

Capital expenditure: Full-year 2023 capital expenditure is forecast to be between US$6.0bn to $6.5bn compared to 2022 guidance of US$4.0bn to US$4.3bn. At the midpoint, this represents a 48% increase.

Gas hub exposure: Woodside expects approximately 20-25% of its 2023 produced LNG to be sold at prices linked to gas hub indices. This percentage is unchanged compared to 2022 expectations.

Woodside chart
Woodside share price chart (Source: TradingView)


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Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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