The ASX 200 stocks attracting the biggest broker upgrades: Paladin Energy, Megaport
Uranium prices are soaring and so are Paladin Energy target prices.
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Mentioned
KEY POINTS
- Paladin Energy experienced the largest week-on-week uplift in consensus target prices last week
- During this time, uranium prices crossed US$107 for the first time since 2007, driven by mounting supply side setbacks and increasing demand
- Megaport shares soared almost 40% last week after announcing a stronger-than-expected set of numbers for Q2 FY24
Uranium is the gift that keeps on giving in 2024, with spot prices crossing US$107/lb last week, up around 17% year-to-date to the highest level since 2007.
Citi upgraded Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) to a Buy last week, with a $1.45 target price (from $1.05) to reflect higher near-and-long term uranium price forecasts.
"Our commodity team has raised its near-and-long term U3O8 price forecasts on the back of a more imminent Russian nuclear fuel ban, and potential continuations of problems with mine development in Kazakhstan and Niger," the analysts said in a note dated 25 January.
"The main driver of the uranium bull market has been the closure of mines due to low prices last decade, exacerbated by the shift towards non-Russian enrichment capacity that led to overfeeding and raised uranium demand."
The average uranium price forecast was raised to US$101 in 2024 and US$110 in 2025, with long-term pricing raised to US$115 (from $87). The new price assumptions resulted in 30% higher EBITDA assumptions for Paladin Energy between FY25-27.
Biggest ASX 200 Upgrades
Ticker | Company | Close | 1-Week | Target Price | Prev Target Price | % Dif |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paladin Energy | $1.38 | 11.8% | $1.45 | $1.30 | 11.5% | |
Megaport | $13.00 | 37.9% | $14.17 | $12.82 | 10.5% | |
Credit Corp | $17.93 | 4.2% | $20.88 | $19.06 | 9.5% | |
Boss Energy | $6.11 | 9.5% | $5.55 | $5.24 | 5.9% | |
Car Group | $33.58 | 2.3% | $31.88 | $30.18 | 5.6% | |
Altium | $51.85 | 6.6% | $45.80 | $43.64 | 4.9% | |
Ramelius Resources | $1.61 | 3.6% | $1.84 | $1.76 | 4.5% | |
Champion Iron | $8.58 | 5.8% | $8.96 | $8.60 | 4.2% | |
Sandfire Resources | $7.28 | 3.3% | $7.25 | $6.96 | 4.2% | |
REA Group | $184.62 | 0.3% | $173.95 | $167.63 | 3.8% | |
Netwealth Group | $16.76 | -3.5% | $15.93 | $15.40 | 3.4% | |
Harvey Norman | $4.40 | -0.2% | $3.89 | $3.77 | 3.2% | |
James Hardie | $59.35 | 6.8% | $56.55 | $54.88 | 3.0% |
'Target price' is an aggregate of Refinitiv broker target prices. % Dif compares target prices between Thursday, 25 January and Friday, 2 February 2024
Megaport shares rallied almost 40% last week after reporting a better-than-expected second quarter FY24 result. The key numbers include:
Q2 revenue of $48.6 million, EBITDA of $15.1 million and net cash up $6.9 million
FY24 guidance unchanged – EBITDA $51-57 million, Revenue $190-195 million
FY24 capex guidance lowered to $20-22 million (previously $28-30 million)
Key KPIs QoQ growth: Customers +1%, Ports +2% and Total Services +3%
The EBITDA figure was 11.8% ahead of Citi expectations and 33.6% ahead of consensus. While the capex guidance was lowered by 8 million or 27.5% lower than previous guidance.
Some of the key takeaways from brokers include:
Citi: "2Q ARR was in-line with expectations and was boosted by a large global WAN deal. We see potential for consensus EBITDA upgrades due to the better than expected 1H result."
Morgan Stanley: "Key new information was lower ~A$8mn capex budget now expected for FY24 that should improve overall cashflow."
Macquarie: "Investment thesis is unchanged. Strong sales productivity and demand bode well for reinvestment in sales. Operating leverage with high-fixed cost base and completion of capital projects in FY23 provide a platform for strong double-digit FCF growth over the forecast period."
