The ASX 200 stocks attracting the biggest broker upgrades: Elders and Boral

Shares in Elders (ASX: ELD) squeezed towards the upside last week after its FY23 results were delivered slightly ahead of expectations and attracted the largest week-on-week upgrade in consensus share price targets among ASX 200 companies.

The Biggest Broker Upgrades

The below data ranks ASX 200 companies based on the largest week-on-week increase in consensus share price targets.

'Target price' is an aggregate of Refinitiv broker target prices. % Dif compares target prices between 17 and 10 November 2023.

A Closer Look at Elders

Heading into the FY23 result, shares in the agribusiness were down around 50% in the past twelve months with 6.4% short interest (#21 most shorted stock on the ASX).

The heavily shorted and oversold dynamics were the perfect ingredients to trigger a sharp rally in the event of better-than-feared earnings. And Elders delivered (not that the bar was very high).

• Revenue down 4% to $3.32bn, ahead of the $3.27bn expected by analysts

• Underlying EBIT down 26% to $170.8m, in line with its $165-175m guidance and ahead of the $167.5m expected by analysts

"Not Out of the Woods Yet"

While the result was a small beat, its outlook commentary flagged headwinds ... literally everywhere:

• “Dry and El Nino outlook expected to see more caution from growers and potential decrease in crop plantings.”

• “Summer dryland crops may be constrained by the anticipated drier conditions.”

• “Cattle prices anticipated to remain under pressure in the short-term.”

• “Lamb and mutton prices are expected to remain subdued into 2024 …”

• “Interest rate pressure may see potential for subdued demand for regional residential properties.”

• “Continued challenging market conditions and lower livestock prices may place further pressure on broadacre turnover.”

The share price rally may have reflected factors such as a) Elders was oversold and down around 52% in the past twelve months (before the rally) and b) heavily shorted (21st most shorted in the lead-up to the result).

Nevertheless, the result was well-received by brokers. Citi upgraded the stock to Neutral from Sell and hiked its target price to $7.30 from $6.00.

"ELD is not out of the woods yet, in our view, with headwinds across the industry likely to persevere, but we are encouraged by the resilience demonstrated in FY23," the analysts said.

"We think this is even more impressive when factoring in unfavourable seasonal conditions and deterioration in agriculture input and livestock prices."

"While ELD has caveated potential for earnings growth in FY24 citing summer crop and livestock headwinds, we now have more confidence in earnings durability from ELD’s diversification and backward integration."

Holding onto Gains

Elders' strong performance following the announcement suggests that the stock is not yet facing significant profit-taking pressure. It rallied 17% on the day of the announcement (Monday ,13 November) and an additional 0.7% by the end of the week.

The question remains: Can Elders continue to grind higher in the face of a deteriorating FY24 outlook? Or is the recent strength due to a combination of short-lived factors such as short covering, positive broker notes and oversold conditions?

Elders 12-month price chart (Source: Market Index)