Reporting Season

OZ Minerals’ HY profits down -59.3% but claims operations are back on track

By Market Index
Fri 26 Aug 22, 3:42pm (AEST)
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Source: Unsplash

Key Points

  • Oz Minerals post half year profits after tax of $109.2m, down -59.3% from the year before
  • The company expects to capitalise on growing long-term demand for copper and nickel, driven by global electrification and accelerated decarbonisation
  • Fully franked interim dividend of 8 cent per share (CPS) for the half-year 2022, virtually half of what was paid out a year earlier

Despite underlying strength within commodity prices, inflationary costs, adverse weather, and covid absenteeism, saw Oz Minerals (ASX: OZL) post half year profits after tax of $109.2m, down -59.3% from the year before on revenue of $908.6m which was also down -7.9% on the previous period.

Underwhelming news also extended to the dividend, with management declaring a fully franked interim dividend of 8 cent per share (CPS) for the half-year 2022, virtually half of what was paid out a year earlier.

The company also suspended the dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) for the half-year dividend.

But despite missing estimates, the copper and gold miner’s share price still managed to move forward, up 0.53% in early afternoon trading.

However, the share price was down -0.50% an hour out from the close.

Impressive growth pipeline

What clearly captured the market’s imagination early this morning was the quality and high margin nature of the company’s assets, with an operating margin of 40% and robust operating cash flow generated during the half.

In an attempt to appease disenchanted investors today, Oz Minerals CEO Andrew Cole reminded the market the miner was beginning to regain operating momentum at both Prominent Hill and Carrapateena.

The miner is also benefitting from lower absenteeism, resulting in fewer shift losses and improved equipment availability.

In short, the company expects to capitalise on growing long-term demand for copper and nickel, driven by global electrification and accelerated decarbonisation.

“Current conditions reinforce the value of the OZ Minerals strategy. Our portfolio of long-life, low-cost assets in low-risk jurisdictions and a pipeline of organic growth options provide confidence in delivering our operational and growth plans.” noted Cole.

Highlights within today’s interim result include:

  • Copper and gold sales down -6% and 25% respectively

  • Earnings (EBITDA) down -36% to $358.3m

  • Closing cash at $107m, down from $215.4m at December 2021

  • All-in cost (AISC) of US$1.91 per pound, up from US$1.36

  • Increased working capital liquidity from $480 to $700m

  • Operating cash flows of $374.8m for the half-year were $82.6m lower than previous period

Other milestones within today’s result include:

  1. The Pedra Branca copper-gold mine at Carajás East in Northern Brazil reached full production in June, producing 4,887 tonnes of copper and 3,657 ounces of gold during the half.

  2. Copper production at Carrapateena hit 100,000 tonnes in the month of April.

  3. Following the recent focus on cave expansion at the Carrapateenna Province, management is expected to refocus on increasing ore production in the second half.

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What’s in store?

While no reference was made to the recent $8.3bn takeover offer by BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) – which Oz Mineral’s rejected early August - management expects all-in costs (AISC) to moderate to between US$1.60 to US$1.80 per pound.

The company also guided to copper production of between 120,000 to 135,000 tonnes, while gold production is expected to come in between 208,000 to 230,000 ounces.

As previously flagged, the miner plan to increase spending on nickel exploration over the next 24 months years to cater for growing demand for the metal from manufacturers of EV batteries. 

The miner is also aiming to get to 344,000 tonnes of annual copper equivalent production over the medium term.

Today management also announce approval to invest a further $12m to progress work at Prominent Hill to evaluate the potential to access the near surface targets of Walawuru and Papa.

 

What brokers think

Oz Minerals share price is up 18.20% over one year, and since mid-July has jumped from under $16 to $26.24.

 

By broker reckoning, Oz Minerals has at least $4bn in development capital required to meet its medium-term goals.

 

Consensus on Oz Minerals is Moderate Buy.

 

Based on Morningstar’s fair value of $29.05 the stock appears to be undervalued.

 

Based on the seven brokers that cover Oz Minerals (as reported on by FN Arena) the stock is currently trading with -9.3% downside to the target price of $23.85.

 

Late July UBS lowered its earnings forecasts by -20% and -11% for FY22 and FY23, respectively due to lower production and increased costs.

 

The broker notes that the interim revenue miss was partly due to provisional pricing, with the earnings (EBITDA) result included a higher exploration expense.

 

UBS suspects project studies spending in 2022 to be up 90% to $170-190m to ensure maintaining schedule for a 2H 2022 final investment decision on West Musgrave.

 

The broker's Buy rating is retained and the target price decreased to $22.60 from $23.25.

 

With both of OZ Minerals' copper mines at growth stages, Credit Suisse recently upgraded the miner to Neutral from Underperform with the target price increasing to $28.00 from $14.50.

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