Morning Wrap: ASX to fall, S&P 500 takes a breather + Two charts explain why we're in a bull market

Major US benchmarks eased from record highs overnight, Bitcoin prices rallied and now within an arms reach of recent highs, oil prices pushed higher on rising geopolitical tensions and Russia's production cut, Trump's social media company is set to trade on the Nasdaq tomorrow and two data points explain why we're in the midst of a bull market.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower in a relatively range bound session (Source: TradingView)

ASX TODAY

• 29Metals suspends operations at Capricorn following extended period of rainfall

• Syrah Resources reports full-year net loss of $85.3m vs. $63m consensus

• Telix Pharma doses first patient in TLX250-CDx early access program 

• Fletcher Building shareholders push for next chair to be an external New Zealand-based candidate (The Australian)

• MMA Offshore top holder slams cheap and opportunistic $1bn takeover (AFR)

• Perpetual suitors including Permira and KKR are not giving up (AFR)

MARKETS

• S&P 500 lower in a relatively quiet and range bound session

• Uneventful start to the week with some focus on overbought conditions, China headwind for select tech companies, potential headwinds from rebalancing dynamics, corporate buyback blackout period and seasonally weak equity inflow period

• Goldman Sachs says month-and-quarter end rebalancing could drive up to US$35bn worth of equity selling

• Deutsche Bank says the first quarter typically account for the bulk of a year’s inflows, they then dwindle, even turning negative from April through to August 

• WTI crude settled 1.5% higher on heightened geopolitical risk and Russia production cuts output to meet OPEC+ targets (Reuters)

• Outperformance of Magnificent 7 stocks has stalled, adding to risk of a pullback (Bloomberg)

• Bond markets restart global rate cutting trades and lean towards cuts commencing in June (Bloomberg)

• Japan stock volatility set to rise with end of BOJ purchases (Nikkei)

• Goldman Sachs says gold rally set to continue through the end of 2024 (Yahoo Finance)

• Cocoa surpasses US$9,000 a ton for the first time amid supply shortage (Bloomberg)

INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

• Apple iPhone no longer holds the appeal it used to for many in China (NY Times)

• Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun to step down at year end (FT)

• Ericsson cuts 1,200 employees in Sweden amid sluggish 5G spending (Reuters)

• Novo Nordisk to acquire Cardior Pharmaceuticals for 1bn euros, maker of heart disease RNA therapies (FT)

• Fisker shares halted after potential deal with large automaker collapses (Reuters)

• Trump Media will begin trading Tuesday under ticker DJT (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Powell's ready to support the job market, even if it means lingering inflation (Bloomberg)

• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says he still sees three rate cuts this year (Reuters)

• Fed Governor Cook highlighted risks of easing monetary policy too soon (Reuters)

• Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterates expectation for one rate cut this year (Bloomberg)

GEOPOLITICS

• UK defence minister says Russia's Black Sea fleet functionally inactive (Newsweek)

• UN Security Council passes Israel and Hamas ceasefire resolution (FT)

• Israel cancels senior delegation's Washington visit after UN Security Council passes ceasefire resolution (Washington Post)

• French and American intelligence both point to ISIS as perpetrators of Moscow attack (USA Today)

• Russia casts doubt on ISIS claims for Moscow attack (Reuters)

ENERGY

• US awards record US$6bn to back industrial emissions reduction projects (Bloomberg)

• Russia orders oil producers to reduce output in Q2 to meet its OPEC+ target (Reuters)

• Morgan Stanley upgrades energy sector, citing higher crude prices and compelling valuation (CNBC)

• Analysts see US oil production at record 14m bpd by year and amid falling costs and improving drilling efficiency (Bloomberg)

• Traders buying oil contracts at fastest pace since Dec-19 (Reuters)

ECONOMY

• US new home sales fall, median prices lowest in more than two-and-a-half years (Reuters) 

• China Premier Li downplays investor concerns over economic risks (Bloomberg)

• China may be releasing economic data early to counter economic gloom (Bloomberg)

Sectors to Watch

Not the most exciting overnight session (after S&P 500 and Nasdaq capped off best weekly gains of the year last week). A few sectors to note include:

• Crypto: Bitcoin rallied 4.3% overnight to US$70,090. I'm keen to see how DigitalX (ASX: DCC) trades. It's a $50m market cap digital asset manager and also holds 114.9 Bitcoin and 129 Ethereum. The company recently (18 March) completed a private placement for $5.3 million at 6.7 cents per share or a 19.2% discount to pre-raise prices.

• Uranium, biotech, copper and homebuilders: Not the most volatile session but several overnight ETFs like the Global X Uranium ETF, SPDR S&P Biotech ETF, Global X Copper Miners ETF and SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF finished lower and at worst levels.

• Energy: Oil prices pushed higher overnight on concerns over tighter global supply amid escalating geopolitical tensions, recent attacks on energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine as well as receding ceasefire hopes in the Middle East. Energy was the best performing S&P 500 sector and within an arms reach of fresh all-time highs. Interestingly, the S&P energy sector is up 18.5% in the past twelve months while the local energy sector is up just 3.9%.

SPDR Select Sector Fund (top) and S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (bottom) | Source: TradingView

A Secular Bull Market

The S&P 500 is on a five month winning streak, up 24.4% since last October. Historical data suggests this is a bullish set up for both April and the rest of the year.

The S&P 500 has logged a positive November, December, January, February and March on 11 occasions since 1950. The below data suggests:

• April tends to be positive 82% of the time

• Q2-3 performance may be a little choppy

• Q4 tends to see some massive rallies and positive 90% of the time

• Performance for the full-year and next twelve months is also very strong

Source: AlmanacTrader

The S&P 500 has also managed to trade without a 2% correction for 100 trading sessions. On previous occasions, the S&P 500 is up 100% of the time (over the next six months), with a median return of 6.8%, according to SentimenTrader.

Companies trading ex-dividend: 

• Tuesday, 26 March: Civmec (CVL) – $0.025, New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZO) – $0.025, Flight Centre (FLT) – $0.10, Southern Cross Electrical (SXE) – $0.01 

• Wednesday, 27 March: Myer (MYR) – $0.03, Waypoint REIT (WPR) – $0.04, IPD Group (IPG) – $0.04, Garda Property (GDF) – $0.016, Rural Funds (RFF) – $0.02, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.05, Reece (REH) – $0.08, Wiseway Group (WWG) – $0.002, 360 Capital REIT (TOT) – $0.015, 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.035, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.03, Centuria Retail REIT (CIP) – $0.04, Australian Unity Office Fund (ARF) – $0.015, Arena REIT (ARF) – $0.04 

• Thursday, 28 March: Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) – $0.03, Sigma Healthcare (SIG) – $0.033

• Friday, 29 March: None

• Monday, 2 April: Regal Partners (RPL) – $0.05, Magontec (MGL) – $0.006, Harvey Norman (HVN) – $0.10 

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Nick Scali (NCK) – $0.35, Maxiparts (MXI) – $0.02, Bendigo Bank (BEN) – $0.30, Embark Education (EVO) – $0.015, Altium (ALU) – $0.30, BlueScope Steel (BSL) – $0.25, Mineral Resources (MIN) – $0.20, Meridian Energy (MEZ) – $0.05, Dusk Group (DSK) – $0.025 

• Listing: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:30 am: Australia Consumer Confidence (Mar)

• 6:00 pm: Germany Consumer Confidence (Apr)

• 11:30 pm: US Durable Goods Orders (Feb)