Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 higher on tech strength, Oil and gold prices rally amid Iran tensions

ASX 200 futures are up 26 pts (+0.29%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher, though finished off best levels

• Big Tech and growthy pockets of the market higher, while defensives like Staples and Utilities underperformed

• Oil prices spiked~4.5% amid concerns about US striking Iran

• Commodity prices broadly higher overnight after trading lower on Wednesday

• Over 30 companies due to report first half FY26 results today

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 19 Feb 26, 8:22am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,881	+0.56%
Dow Jones	49,663	+0.26%
NASDAQ Comp	22,754	+0.78%
Russell 2000	2,659	+0.47%
Country Indices
Canada	33,390	+1.50%
China	4,082	-1.26%
Germany	25,278	+1.12%
Hong Kong	26,706	+0.52%
India	83,734	+0.34%
Japan	57,144	+1.02%
United Kingdom	10,686	+1.23%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,980.76	+2.08%
Copper	5.7761	+2.37%
WTI Oil	65.38	+4.86%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.7043	-0.61%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	66,123	-2.32%
Ethereum (AUD)	2,752	-2.83%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.079	+0.67%
VIX	19.37	-4.54%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, closed off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher but closed off best levels

• S&P 500 up for a third straight session, though yet to recover half of last Thursday's 1.57% dip

• Breadth was mixed, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.52%) performing relatively in-line with the cap-weighted index

• Bounce in growth and tech-related sectors, while recent runners like Utilities, Real Estate and Staples underperformed

• Global stocks have outperformed the US year-to-date by widest margin since 1995 (QZ)

• Retail traders spend record amount to buy software shares after selloff, according to Citadel (BBG)

• UBS raises Big Tech bond sales forecast, cuts leveraged loan estimate as AI-related disruption could hit supply (RT)

• IPO market slows after $7.2bn surge to open the year (BBG)

STOCKS

• Meta to deploy millions of Nvidia processors as part of new collaboration deal (CNBC)

• Snap's direct revenue business reaches $1bn annualised revenue run rate as subscribers top 25 million (WSJ)

• Saudia Arabia's state-owned Humain invests $3bn in xAI (FT)

• Palo Alto Networks shares dip ~6% despite earnings beat (BBG)

• Anthropic could share up to $6.4bn with Amazon, Google and Microsoft in 2027 (TI)

• Nvidia sells off remaining stake in Arm Holdings (BBG)

• Western Digital raises over $3bn via sale of SanDisk shares (BBG)

• Berkshire Hathaway reduces stakes in Amazon, Chevron and Chubb, builds position in New York Times (BBG)

• Volkswagen attracts bids from Blackstone, EQT, and CVC for Everllence division valued at €5-6bn (FT)

• JPMorgan plans over 160 new US branches in 2026 betting on in-person banking for deposit growth (FT)

TARIFFS

• Trump praises $36bn Japanese investment pledge in US oil, gas, and minerals projects under new trade deal (CNBC)

CENTRAL BANKS

• January FOMC minutes highlight cautious Fed, noting progress toward 2% inflation target could be uneven (CNBC)

• Netherlands' Knot and Spain's de Cos seen as early front-runners to succeed Lagarde at the ECB (RT)

GEOPOLITICS

• Vance says Iran failed to acknowledge core US demands (WSJ)

• Trump edges toward full-scale war with Iran amid stalled nuclear talks (AX)

• Russia-Ukraine talks in Geneva end with no breakthrough (RT)

ECONOMY

• US December durable goods orders down 1.4% month-on-month vs. consensus for a 1.5% decline, core capital goods orders (ex-defence) up 0.6% vs. 0.3% ests (BBG)

• UK inflation down 3.0% in January from 3.4% in the prior month, lowest since March 2025 (RT)

• Japan's exports surge 16.8% in January led by AI chip demand offsetting US car shipment decline (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Oh boy. There are at least 30 companies set to report today. You can find the usual coverage here on the Live Blog – where I'll try get through most of these results before market open (and provide some more insight such as consensus beats/misses).

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Commodities rally: Probably said this the other day but the price we pay for such an outsized commodity move in recent months is volatility. It seems like prices are soaring one day, and dumping the next. Commodities traded mostly higher overnight, notably silver (+5.1%), oil (+4.5%), nickel (+3.6%), platinum (+3.4%), palladium (+2.3%) and gold (+2.1%). This drove a similar move for mining equities, with most overnight ETFs up 2-5%.

• Defensive underperformance: Interestingly, sectors like Staples, Utilities and Real Estate underperformed by a wide margin. These sectors have all performed strongly in recent days/weeks.

BROKER MOVES

• Lifestyle Communities downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $5.99 from $7.60 (UBS)

• Magellan Financial Group upgraded to Neutral from Underperform; target up to $8.80 from $8.30 (MQG)

• Santos upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform; target up to $7.50 from $6.75 (RBC)

• TechnologyOne upgraded to Buy from Hold; target lowered to $29 from $33 (BP)

• Technology One upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target up to $29 from $28.20 (MQG)

• Southern Cross Electrical Engineering upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $3.70 from $2.35 (BP)

• The Lottery Corp upgraded to Positive from Neutral; target up to $6.01 from $5.90 (E&P)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 19 Feb:  Blackwall (BWF) – $0.05, Humm Group (HUM) – $0.015,Teaminvest Private Group (TIP) – $0.015

• Fri 20 Feb: ASX (ASX) – $1.018, Bendigo Bank (BEN) – $0.30, Bluescope Steel (BSL) – $0.65, GWA Group (GWA) – $0.08, Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM) – $0.023, MLG Oz (MLG) – $0.013, Regal Asian Investments (RG8) – $0.08

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Dexus Industria REIT (DXI), Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC)

• Earnings: HUB24 (HUB), Lifestyle Communities (LIC), Lovisa (LOV), MA Financial Group (MAF), Mayne Pharma Group (MYX), Medibank Private (MPL), Medical Developments International (MVP), Mitchell Services (MSV), Monash IVF Group (MVF), NWR Holdings (NWH), Peet (PPC), PLS Group (PLS), Prime Financial Group (PFG), Redox (RDX), Rent.com.au (RNT), Sandfire Resources (SFR), Sonic Healthcare (SHL), Star Entertainment Group (SGR), Telstra Group (TLS), Transurban Group (TCL), Ventia Services (VNT), Vitura Health (VIT), Wesfarmers (WES), Westgold Resources (WGX), Whitehaven Coal (WHC), Zip Co (ZIP)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 11:30 am: Australia unemployment rate