ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 19th February

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, February 19. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 at all-time highs

[2:15 pm] The ASX 200 is up 0.94%, off session highs of 1.24%. The previous record close on 21 October was 9,094, with the market currently sitting at 9,091 (c'mon, just a little more). A very strong session, with Energy (+3.2%) stocks soaring off the back of US-Iran tensions, Telcos (+3.0%) at all-time highs after Telstra's dividend topped market expectations, Healthcare (+1.7%) making a small bounce off the back of Sonic Healthcare's result, Financials (+1.5%) continuing to trend higher and Materials (+1.3%) finding some footing after a volatile past few days.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

While reporting season has had its fair share of blow ups, with notable results day moves from Zip (-39%), Temple & Webster (-32%), AMP (-26%), Pro Medicus (-23%) and Nick Scali (-22%). It's fair to see that key companies have reported some very strong numbers and guidance. BHP was a broad beat that highlighted growing copper earnings (~51% of 1H26 EBITDA), all Big Four banks smashed expectations, JB Hi-Fi was resilient, AGL and Origin pushed the Utilities Index 9% higher over three days (10-13 Feb) and more. Prior to the start of February reporting season, market EPS was forecast to recover from -1.2% in FY25 to 8-9% in FY26. Consensus growth expectations might tick a little higher after the results so far. Overall, this results season seems to put the market in a good place, albeit inflation is still a little hot and rates are still widely expected to edge higher (but that's a problem for later). That's all for today. Thanks for tuning in and I'll catch you all tomorrow.

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Sonic Healthcare and IPH make a comeback

[2:05 pm] Just a few more posts before we wrap things up. Sonic Healthcare and IPH were two of the worst performing stocks post-August reporting season, both of which missed expectations and tumbled to multi-year lows.

Interestingly, they're both up today (Sonic +12.6%, IPH +15.0%) on slightly better-than-expected results. Despite the big one-day rally, Sonic and IPH are still 14% and 27% below pre-August result levels. I guess slightly beating expectations when you've been sold to oblivion goes a long way.

Sonic Healthcare price chart, green area represents director buying (Source: TradingView)

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Telstra still trending higher

[1:57 pm] It's quite extraordinary to see Telstra open 1.2% higher, but spend the entire session trending higher, currently up 5.5% to fresh all-time highs of $5.24. The result wasn't a massive beat by all means, but delivered on what matters most to its investor base (shareholder returns).

• Underlying EBITDA of $4.47bn vs $4.41bn ests (1% beat)

• NPAT up 10% to $1.12bn vs $1.16bn ests (3% miss)

• Interim dividend of 10.5 cps vs 9.7 cps ests (8% beat)

• On-market share buyback upsized from $1bn to $1.25bn, with $637m already completed in the half

Telstra intraday price chart (Source: TradingView)

The challenge now is that Telstra is trading at a trailing 27x, which is relatively in-line with the past 3-4 years but well above its 10-year average of around 18x.

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Analysts lift NAB target price

[1:53 pm] NAB's first quarter update on Wednesday was seen as a clean beat, with cash earnings, net interest margins and impairments all ahead of market expectations. The stock finished the session up 4%. Here's what analysts are thinking:

• Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-weight, raised target from $40.40 to $43.50, noting revenue trends are outpacing key peers and credit quality improvement has eased prior concerns, though cost growth is unlikely to moderate materially and the capital position remains relatively tight

• JPMorgan maintained Overweight, raised target from $42.40 to $47.80, pointing to broad-based divisional strength, tangible strategic execution gains, and a relative valuation that looks attractive vs. major peers, with dividend sustainability fears seen as overstated

• UBS maintained Buy, raised target from $47.00 to $50.50, flagging a record quarter prompting earnings upgrades, a supportive credit environment for business lending, and naming the stock as its preferred exposure among the major banks

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A quick question for our readers

[1:46 pm] Hi everyone, Kerry here. We’re looking to better understand the investors and traders who read the Live Blog each day. To do that, we’ll be running a quick daily poll – just one simple question – to learn more about how you invest, trade, and navigate the markets. It’ll take a few seconds to answer, and over time it helps us shape the content and coverage that matters most to you. (Today's poll will be more of a test run).

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Analysts upgrade Technology One

[1:23 pm] TNE jumped 8.1% on Wednesday's AGM update after management upgraded FY26 profit before tax growth guidance to 18-20%. Shares are up a further 3.5% at $23.34 today

The company also re-affirmed it is targeting the top end of both profit and ARR growth guidance, helping ease concerns after the recent software sell off. Here’s what analysts are thinking:

• Bell Potter upgraded to Buy from Hold, lowered target from $33.00 to $29.00 (down 12.1%). Saw the guidance upgrade as signalling strong earnings visibility, flagged softer H1 profit growth.

• Ord Minnett upgraded to Buy from Hold, raised target from $29.78 to $30.54 (up 2.6%). Viewed the upgrade as reflecting confidence in a strong pipeline.

• CLSA maintained Outperform, target unchanged at $36.50. Said the upgrade was welcome relief after sector weakness, expects a clear H2 earnings skew.

By Warren Masilamony | Company page: (TNE)

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IPH jumps 15% as H1 profit beats estimates

[12:55 pm] IPH reported H1 underlying NPAT of $44.0m (up 19.6%) on revenue of $363.9m (up 6.5%). Underlying EBITDA up 6.6% to $107.1m vs $100.5m pcp and margin flat at 29.4%.

Shares are up 14.5% at $3.87 at noon, but remain down about 30% since the last earnings report.

Key Numbers:

• Revenue up 6.5% $363.9m vs Macquarie ests of $363.1m (0.2% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA up 6.6% to $107.1m vs $108.2m ests (1% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA margin 29.4% vs 29.8% ests (4 bp miss)

• Statutory NPAT of $41.2m vs $38.9m ests (5.9% beat)

• Underlying NPAT of $44.0m

• Interim dividend of 19 cps vs. 18 cps (5.5% beat)

By Warren Masilamony | Company page: (IPH)

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Sonic Healthcare jumps as H1 profit

[11:28 am] SHL is up 11.9% at $23.77 in late morning trade after the company delivered a modest NPAT beat. The company maintained FY26 EBITDA guidance and pointed to margin upside from synergy capture and cost control.

Key Numbers:

• Revenue up 17% to $5.45bn vs $5.30bn ests (3% beat)

• EBITDA up 10% to $907m vs $916m ests (1% miss)

• NPAT up 11% to $262.5m vs $253.5m ests (4% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA margin 18.1% vs 17.8% (up 30bps)

• Interim dividend up 2% to 45c vs 44c ests (2% beat)

• Cash generated from operations up 10% to $682m

FY26 EBITDA guidance was maintained at $1.87-1.95bn (midpoint $1.91bn), with an effective tax rate of about 27%.

By Warren Masilamony | Company page: (SHL)

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Codan whips back into positive territory

[11:19 am] A very volatile open for Codan, with the stock briefly dipped as much as ~4% in early trade, but now up 2.5%.

Codan intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

I think what makes this reporting season so challenging and volatile is the number of variables involved, and how they tend to contradict each other. When you look at Codan, the stock is trading at a trailing 62x, which is rather expensive, at a time where richly valued stocks have sold off rather aggressively.

Codan pre-announced an earnings upgrade on 9 January, meaning today's numbers were largely a confirmation rather than a catalyst, coming in broadly in line with that update.

• Revenue up 29% to $393.5m vs. $393.1m ests (in line)

• NPAT up 55% to $71.2m vs. $70.3m ests (1% beat)

• Interim dividend up 56% to 19.5cps vs. 18.0cps ests (8% beat)

• FY26 communications revenue growth guidance of 15-20% maintained, with Minelab H2 performance expected to be at least in line with H1

Beyond a slightly stronger-than-expected dividend, there were no new surprises in the result. That said, Codan rallied 16.8% to $36.89 on the back of the 9 January upgrade, and yesterday's close of $34.59 sits about 6% below that post-upgrade level, which suggests there is some room for the stock to reclaim ground on the back of a sound, if unsurprising, first half.

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Lovisa sharply lower on soft trading update

[11:08 am] The 1H26 result read well, with most numbers ahead of analyst expectations, driven by store network expansion and solid margins. However, the trading update for the first 7 weeks of 2H26 flagged comparable store sales growth of 1.6% (vs. some analyst expectations of over 3%).

• Revenue up 23.3% to $498.1m vs. $491.7m ests (1% beat)

• Underlying gross margin up 50 bps to 82.9% vs. Morgan Stanley ests of 81.8% (11 bp beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 21.5% to $69.6m vs. $65.6m ests (6% beat)

• Interim dividend of 53cps vs. 52cps ests (2% beat)

• 85 new stores opened in the half, bringing total store count to 1,095

• First 7 weeks of H2 total sales up 21.5% on pcp, with comparable store sales up 1.6%

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Zip obliteration, shares down 35%

[11:05 am] If you read the Zip result and thought 'this is a small miss, I'm going to buy the open' – you'd be down about 16% right now. The stock opened lower but aggressively sold off, and still making intraday lows at the time of writing. The result missed both top and bottom line expectations.

Zip intraday price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:56 am] Pretty much all results driven gainers and losers.

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NRW lifts FY26 guidance after H1 beat

[10:46 am] NRW reported a solid first half with earnings ahead of ests and upgraded FY26 guidance. Statutory NPAT up to $72.8m vs $51.7m pcp (up 41%), supported by stronger project execution and higher cash conversion.

Key Numbers:

• Revenue up 20% to $1.97bn vs $1.92bn ests (3% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA up 19% to $225m vs $211m ests (7% beat)

• Underlying EBITA up 37% to $132m vs $120m ests (11% beat)

• Interim fully franked dividend 8.5c a share

Outlook:

• FY26 revenue guidance re-affirmed at $4.1-$4.2bn vs $4.10bn ests (1% beat at midpoint)

• FY26 underlying EBITA guidance lifted to $275-$285m vs $263m ests (6% beat at midpoint)

NWH is up 12.8% at $6.36 in morning trade.

By Warren Masilamony | Company page: (NRW)

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Aspen FY26 guidance upgrade

[10:20 am] Aspen’s first half operating earnings rose 33% as net rental income and realised development profits accelerated. Management lifted FY26 earnings guidance while keeping the full-year distribution outlook unchanged.

Key Numbers:

• Net rental income up to $20.9m vs $17.1m pcp (up 22%)

• Realised development profit up to $10.2m vs $5.5m pcp (up 87%)

• Underlying operating EBITDA up to $26.3m vs $20.4m pcp (up 29%)

• Underlying operating earnings per security up to 10.7c vs 8.0c pcp (up 33%)

• Interim distribution up to 5.5c per security vs 5.0c pcp (up 10%)

Outlook:

• FY26 underlying pre-tax EPS guidance raised to 21.5c vs 20.0c ests (8% beat)

• FY26 underlying operating EBITDA guidance raised to $53.3m vs $51.0m ests (5% beat)

• FY26 DPS reaffirmed at 11.0c

APZ is up 1.1% at $5.40 in morning trade.

By Warren Masilamony | Company page: Aspen (APZ)

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Zip smashed on earnings miss and mixed guidance

[10:10 am] Zip is down 29% in early trade as revenue and cash EBTDA came in light against expectations as the US business continues to dominate the mix.

• TTV up 34.1% to $8.38bn vs. $8.43bn ests (1% miss)

• Revenue up 29.2% to $658.1m vs. $667.2m ests (1% miss)

• Cash EBTDA up 85.6% to $124.3m vs. $130.3m ests (5% miss),

• Underlying NPAT of $52.4m vs. loss of $1.6m pcp

• Active customers up 4.1% to 6.6m, with transactions up 20.2% to 54.9m and merchants up 10.5% to 90.6k

• Net bad debts of 1.7% of TTV, broadly in line with pcp and within management targets

• FY26 operating margin guidance upgraded to greater than 18.0% from 16.0-19.0% prior, and group cash EBTDA as a % of TTV lifted to greater than 1.4% from greater than 1.3%

• US TTV growth of greater than 40% reaffirmed, with January tracking above that threshold

Company page: Zip Co (ZIP)

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Results all look good?

[9:53 am] Pretty much all the stocks we've covered so far have reported in-line or better-than-expected, with most names trading higher pre-market (Hub24 up 12%, Telsta up 1.8%, Ventia up 6.1%, Codan up 4.9% and more. These are indicative premarket prices, so highly volatile and have likely already changed at the time of posting).

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Codan fires on all cylinders

[9:49 am] Most metric tracking in-line or slightly ahead of expectations, driven by gold detector demand in Africa and continued communications momentum.

• Revenue up 29% to $393.5m vs. $393.1m ests (in line)

• EBITDA of $120.5m vs. $118.2m ests (2% beat)

• NPAT up 55% to $71.2m vs. $70.3m ests (1% beat)

• Interim dividend up 56% to 19.5cps vs. 18.0cps ests (8% beat)

• Metal Detection was the standout, with revenue up 46% to $168.0m and segment profit up 86% to $76.2m, driven by strong gold detector demand in Africa

• Communications delivered revenue up 19% to $221.8m with segment profit up 17% to $58.3m, and an orderbook up 19% to $294m

• FY26 communications revenue growth guidance of 15-20% maintained, with Minelab H2 performance expected to be at least in line with H1

Codan recently upgraded its 1H26 guidance (9-Jan), outlining expectations of 1H26 revenue of $394 million and underlying NPAT no less than $70 million, So today's numbers are all in-line with company guidance. Codan rallied 16.8% on the day of this update to $36.89, though the stock has eased to $34.64 due to recent tech/growth/AI fears.

Company page: Codan (CDA)

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Ventia 2025 result: Record work in hand and buyback extended

[9:42 am] A clean result across all key metrics with margin expansion, strong cash conversion and a record pipeline providing good visibility into FY26.

• Revenue up 0.6% to $6.14bn vs. $6.26bn ests (2% miss)

• EBITDA up 6.6% to $532.1m vs. $529.3m ests (in line)

• NPATA up 13.0% to $257.6m vs. $254.4m ests (1% beat)

• Final dividend of 12.54 cps

• Work in Hand reached a record $22.1bn, up 14.4%, underpinned by strong contract renewals and new wins across Defence, Digital Infrastructure, Energy Transition and Water

• On-market buyback extended by an additional $100m, bringing the total program to $250m, with $137.6m returned in FY25

• FY26 NPATA guidance of 7-10% growth on FY25 (implying ~$276-283m vs. $269.7m ests)

Overall, a very solid result and FY26 guidance is tracking ahead of consensus. Ventia has rallied 37% in the last twelve months, though valuation still sits at a reasonable ~18.6x.

Company page: Ventia Services Group (VNT)

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Lovisa shines with strong store rollout and early H2 momentum

[9:37 am] A broad beat across all key metrics with accelerating new store openings and positive comp store sales growth, while early second half trading points to continued momentum.

• Revenue up 23.3% to $498.1m vs. $491.7m ests (1% beat)

• Underlying gross margin up 50 bps to 82.9% vs. Morgan Stanley ests of 81.8% (11 bp beat)

• Underlying EBIT up 20.4% to $109.1m vs. $101.7m ests (7% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 21.5% to $69.6m vs. $65.6m ests (6% beat)

• Interim dividend of 53cps vs. 52cps ests (2% beat)

• 85 new stores opened in the half, bringing total store count to 1,095

• Operating cash flow up 30.3% to $183.8m, reflecting strong earnings conversion

• First 7 weeks of H2 total sales up 21.5% on pcp, with comparable store sales up 1.6%

Everything reads well until you hit the first 7 weeks update, where comparable sales growth is up just 1.6% ....

Company page: Lovisa Holdings (LOV)

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Regis earnings soar on surging gold prices

[9:32 am] A clean beat on both EBITDA and net income with a maiden interim dividend declared, as elevated gold prices flow through to margins.

• Gold sales revenue up 40% to $1.08bn

• EBITDA up 73% to $621m vs. $605.6m ests (3% beat)

• Net income up 267% to $323m vs. $319m ests (1% beat)

• Interim dividend of 15.0cps

• FY26 guidance unchanged, with production of 350-380koz, AISC of $2,610-2,990/oz, growth capex of $220-235m and exploration capex of $70-80m

Regis formalised its capital management policy, which includes intentions to pay a fully-franked, semi-annual dividend. The payout ratio is set at 25-50% of the Group cash increase over the preceding half financial year, and may include buybacks.

Company page: Regis Resources (RRL)

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APA Group delivers steady first half with growth pipeline upgraded to ~$3bn

[9:28 am] Inflation-linked tariff escalation and cost discipline drove a solid result in line with expectations, with APA flagging it now expects to exceed the midpoint of its full-year EBITDA guidance range.

• Revenue up 2.0% to $1.61bn vs. $1.63bn ests (1% miss)

• Underlying EBITDA up 7.6% to $1.09bn vs. $1.08bn ests (in line)

• EBITDA margins up 280bps to 77.3%

• Statutory NPAT up 179% to $95m, reflecting EBITDA growth and lower net interest expense

• Interim dividend up 1.9% to 27.5 cps (in-line with ests)

Outlook and guidance commentary:

• FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $2.12-2.20bn (vs. $2.16bn ests), with APA now expecting to exceed the midpoint of the range

• FY26 distribution guidance reaffirmed at 58.0cps, representing 1.8% growth on FY25

• Organic growth pipeline for FY26-FY28 increased from $2.1bn to ~$3bn, to be funded from existing balance sheet capacity and the DRP

• S&P threshold modification provides an additional $1bn of funding capacity, with BBB (stable) long-term credit rating confirmed

EBITDA guidance commentary implies a slight beat vs. ests, while growth pipeline and S&P threshold also a positive. APA has been on a tear since its 1H25 result, with the stock up 49% since 21 February 2025.

Company page: APA Group (APA)

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Brambles delivers margin expansion and a free cash flow upgrade in solid first half

[9:20 am] Strong new business wins and productivity gains drove earnings ahead of expectations, with free cash flow guidance upgraded meaningfully despite a modest revenue range narrowing.

• Revenue up 2% to $3.53bn vs. $3.55bn ests (1% miss), with volume growth from net new business offset by weak like-for-like consumer demand

• EBIT up 7% to $792.0m vs. $769m ests (3% beat), or up 9% excluding ~$15m of one-off restructuring costs, with margin expansion driven by supply chain and overhead productivity improvements

• Underlying NPAT up 11% to $507.4m vs. $485.2m ests (4% beat)

• Interim dividend up 21% to 23.0cps vs. 22.5cps ests (2% beat)

• On-market share buyback of up to $400m on track, with $191m purchased in the half

• FY26 free cash flow guidance upgraded to $950-1,100m from $850-950m prior (vs. $912.9m ests), reflecting higher earnings and lower working capital outflows

• FY26 revenue growth guidance narrowed to 3-4% from 3-5% prior (vs. 6.6% ests), while underlying NPAT growth of 8-11% was reaffirmed

Despite a slight top-line miss and narrower revenue guidance, improved operating leverage and cost discipline is driving resilient bottom-line and cash flow outcomes.

Company page: Brambles (BXB)

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Wesfarmers delivers solid first half with Bunnings and Kmart doing the heavy lifting

[9:16 am] A clean beat on earnings with early signs of consumer resilience, though the dividend came in light vs. expectations and Covalent Lithium's ramp-up timeline has been extended.

• Revenue up 3.1% to $24.21bn vs. $24.25bn ests (in line)

• EBIT up 8.4% to $2.49bn vs. $2.41bn ests (3% beat)

• NPAT up 9.3% to $1.60bn vs. $1.54bn ests (4% beat)

• Interim dividend up 7.4% to 102 cps vs. 107 cps ests (5% miss)

• Bunnings and Kmart Group were the key earnings drivers, with both benefiting from everyday low price positioning, productivity initiatives and expanding digital capabilities

• WesCEF benefited from improved lithium pricing later in the half, with the Covalent refinery producing high-quality lithium hydroxide during commissioning, though the ramp-up timeline has been extended to address intermittent issues

• Officeworks earnings were impacted by transformation program costs, while WIS delivered broadly in line with pcp after adjusting for the Coregas sale

• Early H2 trading positive, with Kmart Group sales growth stronger than H1, and Bunnings and Officeworks broadly in line with H1

• A $1.50 per share capital management distribution ($1.7bn total) was paid during the half

Company page: Wesfarmers (WES)

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Pilbara Minerals swings back to profit as lithium pricing and volumes recover

[9:10 am] A strong turnaround with EBITDA up 241% and margins nearly tripling, though earnings came in marginally below expectations and no interim dividend was declared.

• Revenue up 47% to $624m

• Adjusted EBITDA up 241% to $253m vs. $259.3m ests (2% miss)

• EBITDA margins expanding to 41% from 17%

• NPAT of $33m vs. loss of $69m pcp,

  • Though includes $16m of non-cash P-PLS call option write-down and $23m equity-accounted P-PLS losses

• No interim dividend declared, consistent with capital management framework, with the board flagging it will consider a dividend at FY26 full year results subject to sustained lithium pricing

• Production up 6% to 432.8kt, with sales of 446.0kt at an average realised price of US$965/t (CIF China), up 40% vs a year ago

• Unit operating costs down 8% to $563/t, remaining within FY26 guidance of $560-600/t, with a modest increase expected in the second half due to the Ngungaju restart

• Balance sheet remains strong with closing cash of $954m and total liquidity of approximately $1.6bn

PLS also approved the restart of its 200Ktpa Ngungaju plant, with production to resume this July.

Overall, PLS continues to show why its the best in class lithium producer. The result also highlights the leverage that miners have to higher prices (margins more than doubling to 41%. Remember when EBITDA margins were ~80% during 2022-23 peaks?).

Company page: Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

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Bega serves up a strong first half with bulk dairy the surprise star

[9:04 am] Beats across every key metric with a meaningful guidance upgrade, as bulk segment profitability surges and branded momentum holds steady.

• Revenue up 5.0% to $1.87bn vs. $1.81bn ests (3% beat)

• Normalised EBITDA up 21% to $133.4m vs. $112.6m ests (18% beat)

• Normalised profit after tax up 45% to $52.1m vs. $36.0m ests (45% beat)

• Interim dividend of 7.0 cps vs. 8.0 cps ests (13% miss)

• Note: Estimates are quite volatile across consensus and individual brokers (e.g. Morgans normalised profit after tax is $41m and interim dividend ests of 7 cps)

• Bulk segment EBITDA up 68% to $41.1m, driven by better alignment of farm gate milk prices to dairy commodity prices, incremental milk supply and a shift to higher value commodities and nutritionals

• Branded segment normalised EBITDA up 8% to $112.5m, supported by new product launches, increased marketing investment and growth across grocery, foodservice and international channels

FY26 normalised EBITDA guidance upgraded to $222-227m from $215-220m prior (vs. $219.3m ests), with the company remaining on track to exceed $250m EBITDA by FY28.

Company page: Bega Cheese (BGA)

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Transurban delivers steady first half as traffic growth offsets Sydney rainfall drag

[9:01 am] Solid operating performance with EBITDA in line and strong North American momentum, though toll revenue came in light and statutory profit beat on non-recurring items. Not too many surprises here as the interim dividend was pre-announced and FY26 dividend reaffirmed.

• Proportional toll revenue up 6% to $1.99bn vs. $2.04bn ests (2% miss), with Sydney traffic impacted by approximately 1% due to rainfall

• Proportional EBITDA up 6.4% to $1.59bn vs. $1.59bn ests (in line)

• Statutory NPAT of $343m vs. $198m ests (73% beat), likely reflecting non-recurring items

• Interim distribution of 34.0 cps (pre-announced)

• ADT of 2.6 million trips, up 2.5%, with growth across all regions

• North America a standout, with traffic up 3.6%, EBITDA up 22% and FCF up 22%, with 62 years of concession life remaining on the I-95 and I-495 Express Lanes

• Proportional operating costs up 4.6% to $474m, though total cost growth of just 1.5% since 1H24 despite cumulative inflation of approximately 5-6%

• FY26 distribution of 69.0 cps reaffirmed, implying 6.2% growth

Company page: Transurban (TCL)

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Hub24 tops expectations as FUA surges and dividend jumps 50%

[8:58 am] A standout half from Hub24 with beats across every key metric, record net inflows, and an upgraded FUA target signalling continued confidence in the growth trajectory.

• Operating revenue up 26% to $245.9m vs. $238.6m ests (3% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 35% to $104.9m vs. $98.4m ests (7% beat)

• EBITDA margin expanding to 42.7% from 39.8%

• Underlying NPAT up 60% to $68.3m vs. UBS ests of $66.4m (2.8% beat)

• Interim dividend of 36.0 cps vs. 37 cps ests (3% miss)

• Total FUA grew to $152.3bn, with platform FUA of $127.9bn ($129.8bn as at 16 February 2026), driving a market share increase to 9.3% from 7.9% (in-line with ests)

• Record half-year platform net inflows of $10.7bn, up 13% on 1H25 (up 34% excluding large migrations), ranked first for net inflows for an eighth consecutive quarter

• FY27 FUA target upgraded to $160-170bn from $148-162bn prior (6.5% upgrade at the midpoint)

Overall, a very strong result alongside a FY27 FUA upgrade. It's worth noting that analysts estimates for FY27 FUA is pretty much already at the upgraded midpoint (UBS FY27 FUA ests at $164.2bn). Hub24 also rallied 5.3% on Wednesday, off the back of Netwealth's bumper 1H26 result.

Company page: HUB24 (HUB)

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Medibank posts soft first half as claims pressure weighs

[8:52 am] Revenue held up but underlying earnings came in below expectations, with claims costs continuing to squeeze margins.

• Revenue up 5.5% to $4.50bn vs. $4.49bn ests (in line)

• Underlying NPAT down 0.3% to $297.8m vs. $310.0m ests (4% miss)

• Interim dividend of 8.3cps vs. 8.2cps ests (1% beat)

• Non-recurring cybercrime costs of $15.0m reflect ongoing IT security uplift and legal costs tied to the 2022 breach, including regulatory investigations and litigation

Company page: Medibank Private (MPL)

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Telstra delivers solid first half, lifts dividend and buyback

[8:50 am] Strong mobile momentum and cost discipline drive earnings growth, with Telstra tightening full-year guidance and returning more capital to shareholders.

• Underlying EBITDA of $4.47bn vs $4.41bn ests (1% beat)

• NPAT up 10% to $1.12bn vs $1.16bn ests (3% miss)

• Interim dividend of 10.5 cps vs 9.7 cps ests (8% beat)

• Mobile services revenue up 5.6%, with Mobiles EBITDA growing $93m, driven by higher ARPU and customer additions

• Underlying operating expenses cut by $179m (2.4%), delivering positive operating leverage of 3.1 percentage points

• Cash EBIT up 14% in the half, though full-year Cash EBIT guidance of $4.55-4.75bn implies a more moderate 5-10% annual growth rate

• On-market share buyback upsized from $1bn to $1.25bn, with $637m already completed in the half

• FY26 underlying EBITDAaL guidance tightened to $8.2-8.4bn (from $8.15-8.45bn prior), all other guidance reaffirmed

Company page: Telstra (TLS)

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Getting into results

[8:43 am] That's all for overnight stuff. Let's get into results. Before we dive in, I just wanted to highlight this chart from Macquarie (Aug-25), where the analysts observed guidance as the most important factor driving share price reactions for the August 2025 reporting season, followed by earnings, margins and dividends.

Source: Macquarie

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Iran's Hormuz Threat: Real Risk or Bluster?

[8:41 am] Iran is warning of unprecedented retaliation if the US follows through on threats, with the Strait of Hormuz squarely in the crosshairs.

• The strait handles ~16.7m barrels per day of crude and condensate, plus nearly a fifth of global LNG supply, making it the single most important chokepoint in global energy markets

• A full closure of even one day could send oil prices surging to US$120-$150 a barrel, against a Brent average of just US$66 year-to-date as of mid-February, accoridng to Kpler analysts

• Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipeline alternatives (5m and 1.5m barrels/day respectively), but Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain have no bypass options whatsoever

Source: Bloomberg

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US retail buyers step up as AI fears hammer software stocks

[8:37 am] Retail traders are snapping up AI-impacted software stocks at record levels, even as hedge funds move the other way.

• Citadel Securities recorded its highest-ever net notional retail buying on its platform (data back to 2017), with average daily dollar demand from 2 Jan to 13 Feb running ~25% above the prior 2021 peak and roughly double the 2020-2025 average

• Retail demand has broadened well beyond tech, with materials, real estate, financials, communication services and industrials all seeing notable inflows year-to-date

• Hedge funds took the opposite side, ramping up short bets at a record pace, setting up a clear institutional vs. retail divide

• Retail options activity is also at historic highs, with average daily volume running ~50% above the 2020-2025 average and more than 15% above last year's pace; retail options investors have been net buyers in 41 of the past 42 weeks

Source: Bloomberg

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Berkshire's Q4 13F: New bets, old exits

[8:36 am] Buffett's final quarter as CEO saw Berkshire rotate out of tech and into media and energy, with several notable position changes.

• New York Times stake initiated at 5.1 million shares, worth $351.7m at year-end, marking Buffett's last new bet as CEO before stepping down on 31 December

• Amazon holding slashed by more than 75% to roughly 2.3 million shares, despite Buffett calling himself "an idiot" for not buying it sooner when Berkshire first invested in 2019

• Apple and Bank of America continued to be trimmed, with stakes reduced to 1.5% and 7.1% respectively, continuing a trend that started through 2024

• Chevron and Chubb both increased, to 6.5% and 8.7% respectively, with Chubb shares up ~11% in Q4 amid M&A speculation around a potential AIG approach

• Beyond the 13F, Berkshire has been active on larger deals, including a $9.7bn acquisition of Occidental's petrochemical business and a $5.6bn stake built in Alphabet

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Fed minutes hit pause, eyes inflation

[8:35 am] January FOMC minutes confirmed a hold, with no major surprises, though the overall tone leaned hawkish relative to the prior meeting.

• Most participants flagged that progress toward the 2% inflation target could be slower and more uneven than expected, with elevated core goods prices tied to tariffs seen as the key near-term driver, though most expect these effects to fade through 2025

• Labour market assessed as stabilising post-cooldown, with downside employment risks seen as easing and job gains described as subdued but steady

• Growth outlook upgraded relative to December, underpinned by resilient consumer spending and strong business investment, particularly in AI

• Policy path remains data-dependent, with some officials preferring to hold until the inflation picture clears

• Markets left rate cut pricing largely unchanged, with the first cut still expected in June

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US equities higher, defensives underperform

[8:26 am] Major US benchmarks broadly higher overnight and on a 2-3 day win streak, but still trading below last Thursday's levels (where most indices fell ~1%).

S&P 500 (+0.56%), Nasdaq (+0.78%), Dow (+0.26%) and Russell 2000 (+0.45%) all positive but finished off best levels. An opposite day (compared to prior sessions), where Tech and growthy pockets of the market outperformed, while defensives lagged, with Utilities (-1.7%), Real Estate (-1.45%) and Staples (-0.53%) noticeably lower.

Brent rallied 4.5% to a fresh six month high of US$70.3/bbl amid concerns of a US strike on Iran. Most commodities including silver (+5.1%), nickel (+3.6%), platinum (+3.4%), palladium (+2.3%) and gold (+2.1%) higher overnight.

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A very, very busy results day

[8:20 am] Over 30 companies are due to report their first-half FY26 results this morning.

Notable reporters include: HUB24 (HUB), Lifestyle Communities (LIC), Lovisa (LOV), MA Financial Group (MAF), Mayne Pharma Group (MYX), Medibank Private (MPL), Medical Developments International (MVP), Mitchell Services (MSV), Monash IVF Group (MVF), NWR Holdings (NWH), Peet (PPC), PLS Group (PLS), Prime Financial Group (PFG), Redox (RDX), Rent.com.au (RNT), Sandfire Resources (SFR), Sonic Healthcare (SHL), Star Entertainment Group (SGR), Telstra Group (TLS), Transurban Group (TCL), Ventia Services (VNT), Vitura Health (VIT), Wesfarmers (WES), Westgold Resources (WGX), Whitehaven Coal (WHC), Zip Co (ZIP)

I won't get through all of them (but I'll try my best).

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Good morning!

[8:18 am] ASX 200 futures are up 26 pts (+0.29%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher, though finished off best levels

• Big Tech and growthy pockets of the market higher, while defensives like Staples and Utilities underperformed

• Oil prices spiked~4.5% amid concerns about US striking Iran

• Commodity prices broadly higher overnight after trading lower on Wednesday

• Over 30 companies due to report first half FY26 results today