Lithium investors will have some numbers to chew on after a pricing update from Allkem (ASX: AKE).
Realised lithium carbonate prices for the June quarter is expected to be approximately 14% higher than the company’s prior guidance at US$40,000/t.
This represents a 47% increase compared to March quarter prices of US$27,246/t.
“Customers continue to value security of supply which is reflected in a fully committed order book for the remainder of the calendar year,” the company said in a statement.
Allkem flagged that FY22 spodumene production is expected to miss guidance by approximately 2-4% due to production delays.
Full-year production is forecast to come in between 192,000 to 196,000 dry metric tonnes (dmt) compared to the company’s previous guidance of 200,000 to 210,000 dmt.
Factors including a delayed reopening of the WA border, covid-related challenges and a highly competitive resources labor market were to blame.
Encouragingly, spodumene prices continued to trend higher, with Allkem expecting realised prices in the June quarter to hit US$5,000/t.
Allkem noted that Argentina’s Customs Agency recently set a reference price for lithium carbonate at US$53,000/t.
The company said that the price is not used for calculation of taxes, royalties or duties, and will not have any material impact on product exports, realised prices or profitability.
Credit Suisse was Neutral rated on Allkem with a $14.70 target price last Wednesday, 1 June.
"Compared to a few months ago, it is now far more difficult to have conviction in ongoing macro lithium strength given global economic/demand risks," said the investment bank.
Credit Suisse analysts forecast Allkem to deliver roughly 13% free cashflow yields in FY23-24, with a potential 7% dividend yield on the cards.
However, flagged that Allkem upside may be limited if recent lithium price levels can't be sustained. The stock would have a "long way to fall" if or when the down cycle develops.
Get the latest news and insights direct to your inbox