Evening Wrap: ASX 200 surges over 100 points to close at new record high - here's why

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 106.7 points higher, up 1.23%.

A wave of relief buying swept global markets today, sparked by expectations of lower interest rates in key jurisdictions. Despite the fact those potentially lower interest rates may come as a result of a slowing global economy, Aussie stocks happily rode the wave of investor exuberance today – to log a +100 point gain and close at a new all time high 🥳.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 106.7 points higher at 8,770.4, 1.23% from its session low and just 0.04% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by an emphatic 245 to 42.

If you believe the regular wraps, stocks are rising because of increased hopes of further interest rate cuts in the US – citing Friday's terrible jobs number as a catalyst. That's the same jobs number that got the head of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) fired, and along with some other nasty bits of news on Thursday and Friday was responsible for a similarly nasty 2-day selloff.

Here's the thing though, those raised rate cut hopes are on the back of the US economy potentially going down the toilet – and that's not something investors typically cheer. So, the interest rate cuts "excuse" doesn't really add up. More likely, US stocks rallied due to a gap-and-run earnings beat by major AI stock Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) that sparked a contagion rally in similar AI names, big and small. One of those (big) was NVIDIA (NYSE: NVDA), and another (also big) was Meta (NYSE: META).

How this flows back to our commendable +100 point + record breaking performance is somewhat tenuous, but also a little irrelevant. Stuff went up today because there was more demand for Aussie shares than there was supply of them.

So, this means that if you wanted to own some more stock today, there wasn't much of it around to buy... and therefore you had to take what was there and then bid up your price to entice some more supply out.

Yesterday, we discussed how the bond market responded to Friday's bad US economic data. It soared, which sent benchmark yields lower. Interestingly, the reversal in the stock market wasn't matched in the bond market on Monday – i.e., the bond market largely held Friday's gains (note the last candle in the chart below is today's live candle).

US 2-Year T-Bond Yield (click here for full size image)

This confirms for me that the bond market is indeed still expecting further rate cuts by the Fed because the US economy is weakening, but that the stock market's rally was something completely else entirely. Hey, such is the want of a bull market – to rally.

And rally they-and-we did today! 🥳

All 11 of the major ASX sectors, plus the Gold Sub-sector, were up today, as roughly 6 stocks rose for the 1 poor sod that missed out (e.g., Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (-8.4%)).

There were few themes in the broad-based move, as we don't really have an mega-AI stocks... So, local investors had to settle for Gold (XGD) (+2.1%), Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.8%), and Financials (XFJ) (1.5%).

Sectors that do like lower benchmark yields like bond proxies Real Estate (XPJ) (1.4%), and long duration Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.3%), also fared well.

If there were laggards, they were generally in the more defensive sectors that held up so well yesterday... so net-net over the last couple of sessions it hasn't so bad for these sectors either (Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.3%) and Telecommunications (XTJ) (+0.9%)).

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

The baby remains in the bath...👶! (click here for full size image)

That Candle – Part III

The Demand-Side Strikes Back!

And wasn’t it an emphatic response to Thursday and Friday’s largely unopposed wall of supply?

Caused by "Hopes of an interest rate cut”...

...seems to be the main “excuse” bandied around by Monday market wrappers floundering for a reason for the about-face gains that recouped most of Friday’s panic-stricken decline.

Hey – don’t hate us wrappers…we have to find an “excuse” for every bloody thing that happens in the markets!

Not really. Finding excuses isn't my mantra… but that’s mainly because I have my trusty old: “Stocks went up 2% in the US last night because there was excess demand for them…” to fall back on!

I’d love to see that printed in the AFR! 😁

But, at the end of the day, that’s exactly what happened. Why was there excess demand for US stocks? Honestly, I have no idea… Why is the sky blue? Why do birds sing? Why can’t my West Coast Eagles win a game? 🤔

Can I offer: It’s a demand-side market (refer to short and long term uptrends), and therefore we should expect bouts of excess demand on a more often than not (“MOTN”) basis.

What’s surprising to me, is just how easily the demand-side had it last night. Look at that miniscule volume. The supply-side got out of the way. Demand was motivated, yes, but simply couldn’t find enough shares to buy… it had to then bid prices up to entice supply out (not forthcoming).

The question of "Where’s supply?" is now our main focus. Ideally, it doesn’t reappear with any coordination or force. We keep printing demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows) all the way back up to 21458… and in a perfect world… beyond.

I doubt we’ll get away with it that easily, however. There’s likely to be at least some latent supply lurking around that level – a point of supply as we define it – the question is, how much? The candles will tell us. The bigger / blacker / upward pointing shadow-er they are near 21458, the more likely that level is going to be a real problem.

And I have to believe that Thursday and Friday weren’t merely aberrations – the supply that created them still has some ammunition, and other supply might even chip in sooner or later on the basis of front running that supply.

You’ve just seen three incredible candles. You can look at markets for many years and not see those three together (I challenge you to peruse as many charts as you wish to prove me wrong!).

I’m still trying to figure out what they mean. I’ll get a better read as we approach 21458. In the meantime, it’s the usual stuff – which for trend followers should be the case MOTN because trends don’t change all that often:

• Short and long term uptrends persist

• Price action is mixed (rising peaks vs falling troughs), but the sharpness of Monday’s rally is a big positive

• Candles are mixed, as we’re 3 x pretty nasty ones and 1 x pretty amazing one in the last 5

Conclusion: Still a demand-side market, but there are some question marks. I still want to watch my risk levels like a hawk (repeating my earlier comment that the baby remains happily in the bathwater…just with a bit less water in the bath! 👶).

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

ing it! (click here for full size image)

Tin Pot no more! The ASX 200 will now be referred to as the Golden Le Creuset! 🍲🥇

At least until it goes back to behaving like the Tin Pot of global equities markets… which is inevitable… let’s face it 🤦.

But for now, and looking at the most beautiful long white candle on the chart above, it’s a global leader.

This is because unlike the vast majority of other global bourses, it didn’t even flinch yesterday in the face of Friday’s US meltdown… and then unlike its usual Tin Pot Playbook – it actually went up today in response to Monday’s stellar US gains!

This chart now looks so good (i.e., a picture of demand-side control) I don’t want to even finish typing this sentence for fear of jinx

Economy

Today

• AUS ANZ Job Advertisements July

  • -1.0% vs +1.8% in June (miss!)

• Caixin Services PMI July

  • 52.6 vs 50.4 forecast and 50.6 in June (beat!)

Later this week

Wednesday

• 00:00 USA ISM Services PMI July (51.5 forecast vs 50.8 June)

Thursday

• 03:01 USA 10-year Bond Yield (4.36% at 2.6x bid-to-cover in July)

• 21:00 UK Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Statement and Official Cash Rate (-0.25% to 4.0% forecast)

Friday

• 03:01 USA 30-year Bond Yield (4.89% at 2.4x bid-to-cover in July)

Saturday

• 11:30 CHN Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) July

  • CPI: -0.1% p.a. forecast vs +0.1% p.a. in June

  • PPI: -3.2% p.a. forecast vs -3.6% p.a. previous

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +43.4% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) – EOS secures order for 100kW high power laser weapon (A$125m), general strength across the broader Defence sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +20.4% Falcon Metals (FAL) – Visible gold in multiple stacked veins at Blue Moon, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +16.5% Waratah Minerals (WTM) – Continued positive response to 04-Aug Multiple zones of high-grade gold extend Spur Gold Corridor, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +16.2% Credit Corp Group (CCP) – Credit Corp Group FY25 Results Presentation and Annual Report 2025, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.8% Aml3d (AL3) – No news since 04-Aug Arcemy X Operational at the Largest Public Utility in USA, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.8% Elsight (ELS) – No news, general strength across the broader Defence sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.6% Iluka Resources (ILU) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.6% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) – Diggers and Dealers Mining Forum Presentation.

• +8.0% IDP Education (IEL) – No news 🤔.

• +7.9% Austal (ASB) – FY2025 Earnings guidance update and Approval of Austal as Australia's Strategic Shipbuilder, general strength across the broader Defence sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.2% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) – Continued positive response to 04-Aug Chatree Gold Mine Delivers Record Monthly Production, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +7.1% Mineral Resources (MIN) – Becoming a substantial holder (JP Morgan), rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up.

• +6.8% Turaco Gold (TCG) – Continued positive response to 04-Aug Adiopan Emerging as Additional Significant Deposit at Afema, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.6% Codan (CDA) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.1% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.0% West African Resources (WAF) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +5.9% Zip Co. (ZIP) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.4% Catalyst Metals (CYL) – Investor Presentation - August 2025, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.2% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) – Diggers & Dealers Presentation 2025, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -8.4% Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) – Historical Financials in USD and H12025 OPEX, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.7% Amplia Therapeutics (ATX) – No news 🤔.

• -7.4% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news (but there were several Directors Interest Notices today).

• -5.0% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -4.9% Sun Silver (SS1) – No news.

• -3.8% Silver Mines (SVL) – Placement and SPP to Raise $33 Million.

• -3.5% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) – Deferral of reduction in daily cash limit - The Star Sydney, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.3% Imugene (IMU) – No news since 04-Aug 79% Overall Response Rate With Two Further Partial Responses, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.2% Lotus Resources (LOT) – Kayelekera Receives Final Project Approval Certificate, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.2% BetaShares US EQY Strong Bear ETF (BBUS) – No news, Short Nasdaq ETF.

Broker Moves

29Metals (29M)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

• Retained at Sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.16

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.95

ALS (ALQ)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $19.70

ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ)

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $26.50

Antipa Minerals (AZY)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.86

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.15

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.25 from $1.30

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.15

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $41.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.95

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.50

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $1.16 from $1.35

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.75

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.25

Brambles (BXB)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; Price Target: $24.00 from $23.00

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at Underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $129.00

Credit Corp Group (CCP)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.27

COG Financial Services (COG)

• Retained at Accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.92 from $1.38

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.19

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.00 from $10.50

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.30

Core Lithium (CXO)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.11

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $7.90

Duratec (DUR)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85 from $1.80

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.80

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.50

• Downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.54

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.54 from $4.59

• Retained at Hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.50

• Retained at Neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.60

• Retained at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.35 from $4.40

Emerald Resources NL (EMR)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.60 from $4.00

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.50

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $7.60

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.50

FireFly Metals (FFM)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.60

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $20.00

Generation Development Group (GDG)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.25 from $5.65

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $10.00 from $11.00

Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.20

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.20

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.70

Gold Road Resources (GOR)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $3.25

Hastings Technology Metals (HAS)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.28

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.20

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $5.40

IPH (IPH)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.75

Jupiter Mines . (JMS)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.23

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at Underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.45

Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $102.00

• Retained at Outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $95.00

Medallion Metals (MM8)

• Retained at Speculative Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.65

Megaport (MP1)

• Retained at Sector Perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $13.00

Mesoblast (MSB)

• Initiated at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.97

Myer Holdings (MYR)

• Initiated at Neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $0.70

MyState (MYS)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.58 from $4.53

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.90

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $20.00

• Retained at Buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $19.00 from $22.10

• Retained at Neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $17.25 from $17.50

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.00

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $16.65

NEXTDC (NXT)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $20.10

• Retained at Outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $20.00

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $12.60

Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (PMT)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.65

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.10

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.00

ResMed Inc. (RMD)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $48.50 from $48.60

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $48.60 from $45.90

• Retained at Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $47.86 from $44.07

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.95

Silk Logistics Holdings (SLH)

• Retained at Hold at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.10

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.60

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.20

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $28.00

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.68

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.75 from $0.68

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $135.00

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $127.40

Scans