Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rally, S&P 500 snaps losing streak, Credit Corp reports FY25 results

ASX 200 futures are up 86pts (+0.99%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks rallied and recouped most of last Friday's selloff

• Oil prices eased as OPEC+ is set to unwind all of the output cuts it made in 2023, gold prices tick higher, US yields near 3-month low

• Key earnings/updates from Austral, TPG and Credit Corp

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up, trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher and at best levels

• S&P 500 reversed most of last Friday’s selloff and within 1.5% of record highs

• Big tech bounced back, notably Nvidia (+3.6%), Meta 9+3.5%) and Alphabet (+3.0%), though breadth was also quite strong with the Equal-weight S&P only slightly underperforming the official benchmark

• No major directional drivers behind the overnight strength, Q2 earnings remain strong and the poor jobs data has held to a rebound in Fed easing expectations 

• S&P 500 is due for a near-term drop in the weeks and months ahead, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson, Evercore’s Julian Emanuel, and a team at Deutsche Bank (BBG)

• Europe is seen as the biggest geographical focus for the second half of the year for hedge fund allocation, according to Goldman Sachs (BBG)

• Treasury yields tumbled last Friday after weak US jobs report fueled bets on Fed rate cuts (BBG)

• Swiss stocks tumbled on fears of US tariffs, nearly wiping out 2025 gains (BBG)

• OPEC+ to increase production quotas by ~547K bpd from September, fully unwinding the 2.2m bpd output cut made in 2023 (RT)

STOCKS

• Berkshire Hathaway shares tumble after company revealed a multibillion-dollar write-down and opted to forgo buybacks (BBG)

• Figma shares dip 27% after more than tripling on its NYSE debut last week (CNBC)

• BP makes biggest discovery in 25 years (RT)

TARIFFS & GEOPOLITICS

• EU to suspend US tariff countermeasures for 6 months after deal with Trump (RT)

• Trump says he will substantially raise tariffs on India for not ceasing purchases of Russian oil (AX)

• China restricts mineral exports, impacting US defense firms and supply chains amid tensions (WSJ)

• EU expects Trump to formalise lower car tariffs, exemptions for industrial goods this week (BBG)

• Canada hopes for US tariff deal despite Trump administration's denial of negotiations (FT)

• Swiss government open to revising US offer after surprise 39% duty, Trump's tariffs threaten recession (WSJ)

ECONOMY

• Trump fires BLS head, raising data integrity questions, new leaders sought and Congress urged to probe (RT)

• Swiss inflation unexpectedly accelerates to 0.2% in July vs. expectations for a 0.1% increase, boosting policymakers' debate on negative interest rates (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Austal upgrades FY25 EBIT guidance to no less than $100m vs. previous guidance of no less than $80m (ASB)

• HMC seeks to raise up to $1bn, about half the amount previously flagged, for reworked renewable energy platform (AFR)

• TPG provides FY25 guidance, expects pro forma EBITDA between $1.60-1.65bn, targeting FY25 dividend of 18 cents per share (equal to FY24), plans to return up to $3bn to all shareholders via capital reduction of up to $1.61 per share (TPG)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Credit Corp: One of the main FY25 reporters today, Macquarie (May-25) forecasts revenue of $567.5m, NPAT of $93.2m and full-year DPS of 68 cents. Credit Corp often provides guidance for the next year, with forecasts sitting at $301m for PDL acquisitions, $110m for net lending volumes and $108.3m for NPAT.

• Gold: Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rallied 4.7% overnight, topping recent highs to close at the highest level since March 2012. Local gold names already rallied on Monday, but the sector is once again, breaking out (despite gold prices still hovering US$3,370/oz).

BROKER MOVES

• Brambles downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to $24.00 from $23.00 (UBS)

• Nickel Industries downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $0.80 from $0.90 (CITI)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 5 Aug: Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFI) – $0.195, BKI Investment Company (BKI) – $0.04

• Wed 6 Aug: None

• Thu 7 Aug: Djerriwarrh Investments (DJW) – $0.083

• Fri 8 Aug: Amcil (AMH) – $0.055

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Euroz Hartleys Group (EZL) ,Collins Food (CKF)

• Earnings: Credit Corp (CCP)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (Jul)

• 11:30 am: Australia Household Spending (Jun)

• 12:00 am: US ISM Services PMI (Jul)