ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 5th August
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to rally and trade within an arms reach of all-time highs. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, August 5. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.
Gold miners kick on
[12:52 pm] Gold miners are trading broadly higher, with most names up around 5-10% in the last two sessions. While gold prices haven't broken out to new highs, there's clearly a shift in risk-appetite for miners, likely due to the sharp fall in bond yields.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
WAF | West African Resources | 4.72% | $2.44 |
NEM | Newmont Corporation | 4.12% | $101.15 |
RMS | Ramelius Resources | 3.67% | $2.69 |
GMD | Genesis Minerals | 2.53% | $3.86 |
PRU | Perseus Mining | 2.24% | $3.43 |
NST | Northern Star Resources | 2.20% | $16.52 |
WGX | Westgold Resources | 1.35% | $2.63 |
RRL | Regis Resources | 1.33% | $4.19 |
CMM | Capricorn Metals Ltd | 0.83% | $9.13 |
EVN | Evolution Mining | 0.76% | $7.29 |
EMR | Emerald Resources | 0.72% | $3.48 |
VAU | Vault Minerals | 0.51% | $0.40 |
GOR | Gold Road Resources | 0.47% | $3.21 |
Analysts visit Northern Star's KCGM project
[12:45 pm] Analysts have provided their key takeaways after visiting Northern Star's KCGM operation.
UBS maintained Neutral, target unchanged at $16.65. KCGM production aligned with revised expectations, though Hemi capex seen as potentially optimistic.
JPMorgan maintained Neutral, target unchanged at $17.25. Plant progress exceeded expectations with upside risk from mill ramp-up and added resilience from underground flexibility.
Macquarie retained Outperform, target unchanged at $25.00. Production outlook slightly above consensus with strong stockpile and underground potential into FY29.
Goldman Sachs maintained Buy, target unchanged at $19.00. KCGM mill expansion to replace low-grade feed, with cost efficiency gains and long-term growth capacity secured.
TPG fades early gains
[11:34 am] TPG rallied as much as 3.0% ($5.69) in early trade after the company announced plans to return up to $3.0 billion to shareholders and intentions to pay a FY25 dividend of 18 cents per share.
However, shortly after the announcement (after market open), S&P Global assigned a 'BBB' rating to the company, with a 'Negative' outlook. The key takeaways from the ratings agency include:
TPG Telecom will take several capital management initiatives after receiving about $4.7 billion in net proceeds from selling assets to Vocus Group.
Following the Vocus transaction, we expect TPG's high-margin, capital-light business to repay debt and maintain a steady state debt-to-EBITDA ratio of about 2.5x.
On Aug. 5, 2025, S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BBB' long-term issuer credit rating to TPG.
The negative outlook reflects our view there is some uncertainty regarding the amount and timing of the group's capital reinvestment plan and subsequent debt reduction. As such, TPG's fiscal 2025 (December year-end) capital structure may not be consistent with the 2.75x leverage threshold we believe is consistent with the 'BBB' rating.
The stock is currently trading 2.5% lower ($5.38)
Source: ASX Announcement
Rare earth, graphite stocks surge
[11:25 am] Rare earth stocks like Iluka opened sharply higher, and continued to trend on Tuesday.
There haven't been any major developments in the rare earth space, though the Wall Street Journal posted a vague article yesterday about China's continued grip on critical metals. The key takeaways include:
China tightens grip on critical minerals, restricting exports of rare earths vital to Western defense manufacturing despite some easing after US trade concessions.
Export restrictions delay deliveries, with US drone parts manufacturers experiencing up to 2-month lags due to sourcing difficulties.
Prices for minerals like samarium have soared — one company quoted 60x normal price — raising defense system costs significantly.
Germanium, gallium, and antimony banned for export to the US since December, impacting optics, munitions, and other defense applications.
Pentagon investing to boost supply: $400m into MP Materials (largest rare-earth mine in the Americas), $14m into Canadian germanium producer.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
ILU | Iluka Resources | 9.02% | $5.80 |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | 6.18% | $11.95 |
SYR | Syrah Resources | 5.96% | $0.30 |
ARU | Arafura Rare Earths | 4.00% | $0.18 |
NTU | Northern Minerals | 3.03% | $0.03 |
ASM | Australian Strategic Materials | 2.75% | $0.56 |
TLG | Talga Group | 2.20% | $0.47 |
Small caps making moves
[10:51 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
EOS | Electro Optic Systems | 29.83% | $3.83 |
SYR | Syrah Resources | 7.72% | $0.31 |
IMM | Immutep | 7.69% | $0.28 |
LGI | Lgi | 6.43% | $3.64 |
WGN | Wagners Holding | 6.06% | $2.10 |
TCG | Turaco Gold | 5.68% | $0.47 |
EBR | Ebr Systems | 5.60% | $1.42 |
AUC | Ausgold | 5.45% | $0.58 |
RAC | Race Oncology | 4.74% | $1.22 |
LOT | Lotus Resources | 4.52% | $0.16 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
SVL | Silver Mines | -6.15% | $0.12 |
PLL | Piedmont Lithium | -4.35% | $0.11 |
MMI | Metro Mining | -4.23% | $0.07 |
DTR | Dateline Resources | -3.70% | $0.13 |
AFP | Aft Pharmaceuticals | -3.61% | $2.40 |
SWM | Seven West Media | -3.33% | $0.15 |
CGS | Cogstate Ltd | -3.29% | $1.62 |
SHA | Shape Australia Corporation | -2.82% | $3.79 |
ANG | Austin Engineering | -2.32% | $0.34 |
ASL | Andean Silver | -2.23% | $1.32 |
Credit Corp soars 16% on FY25 results
[10:50 am] Credit Corp shares are up around 16% in early trade, after reporting a relatively positive FY25 result and FY26 guidance.
Revenue up 5% to $545.6m vs. Macquarie ests (May-25) of $567.5m (3.8% miss)
NPAT up 86% to $94.1m vs. $93.2m ests (1.0% beat)
Full-year dividend up 79% to 68 cents per share vs. 68 cents ests (in-line)
The company guided to strong investment and profit growth for FY26, including:
Ledger investment between $280-330m
Gross lending of $350-390m
NPAT between $100-110m vs. $108.3m ests (3.0% miss at the midpoint)
The stock is now trading at the highest level since its February half-year result, where the stock tumbled 12.2% in softer-than-expected numbers.
In my experience, Credit Corp has always traded with a massive range during reporting season, regardless of the result is a small or large beat/miss.
Credit Corp daily chart (Source: TradingView)
Top gainers and losers in early trade
[10:25 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
DRO | Droneshield | 8.75% | $4.10 |
ZIP | Zip | 5.47% | $3.38 |
LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | 4.98% | $11.81 |
ILU | Iluka Resources | 4.70% | $5.57 |
RMD | Resmed Inc | 4.54% | $44.87 |
ASB | Austal | 4.36% | $6.70 |
CDA | Codan | 4.01% | $21.92 |
NEM | Newmont Corporation | 3.94% | $100.97 |
GDG | Generation Development Group | 3.78% | $6.18 |
MP1 | Megaport | 3.59% | $15.28 |
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
TLX | Telix Pharmaceuticals | -17.24% | $16.75 |
AFI | Australian Foundation Investment Company | -2.89% | $7.38 |
SNZ | Summerset Group Holdings | -1.15% | $10.30 |
MSB | Mesoblast | -1.05% | $2.35 |
TUA | Tuas | -1.01% | $5.38 |
CEN | Contact Energy | -0.96% | $8.23 |
GNE | Genesis Energy | -0.92% | $2.16 |
NEU | Neuren Pharmaceuticals | -0.87% | $17.13 |
ASK | Abacus Storage King | -0.63% | $1.58 |
SIG | Sigma Healthcare | -0.52% | $2.86 |
Telix dives 20% to 13-month low
[10:18 am] Telix is in a world of pain and investors are rushing to exit the stock. The stock opened 7.3% lower ($18.75%) and currently down 20.2% ($16.14) after the company guided to OPEX for the first-half of 2025 of approximately 36% of revenue. The price action suggests this was a much larger-than-expected cost outcome for the biotech company.
Electro Optic Systems rallies 30%
[10:10 am] Electro Optic Systems soared 33% ($3.93) in early trade. This may not come as a big surprise given the catalyst and how the stock performed following a similar-contract win a few months ago.
EOS announced the world’s first export order for a 100-kilowatt class laser defence system, valued at approximately $125 million from a European NATO customer.
For perspective, the stock rallied 14.7% after it announced a $53 million contract win just two months ago.
Gold stocks soar
[9:50 am] The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rallied 4.7% overnight, breaking above its recent trading range and closing at the highest level since March 2012.
Gold prices are currently up around 3.0% in the last four sessions to US$3,377/oz but still ~2% away from recent highs.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF daily chart (Source: TradingView)
Catapult Group reaffirms FY26 guidance
[9:45 am] Catapult Group reaffirmed its FY26 guidance at its AGM (marked non-price sensitive). The key highlights include:
ACV growth to remain strong with low churn
Continued improvement in cost margins towards targets
Higher Free Cash Flow as the business scales
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Catapult Group (CAT)
Citi's take on Endeavour Chairman resignation
[9:36 am] Endeavour Group's Executive Chairman (and interim CEO) Ari Mervis announced his resignation on Monday, raising concerns over leadership stability.
In the same announcement, the company cut its FY25 statutory NPAT guidance $420–425 million (vs., Citi ests of $423m), driven by higher costs, though company couldn’t disclose full detail due to blackout.
Citi says Mr Mervis' decision to step down will not have an impact on the strategy refresh, but raises governance concerns, with no clear executive to sign off on key decisions. The analysts retained a Neutral rating, but lowered their target price from $4.59 to $4.54.
Electro Optic Systems secures $125 million order
[9:25 am] Electro Optic Systems has secured an order for the world’s first export order for a 100-kilowatt class laser defence system, valued at approximately $125 million from a European NATO customer.
The order will be fulfilled during 2025-2028 by EOS in Singapore.
This represents a major contract win for the $570 million market cap EOS.
The stock rallied 14.7% after it announced a $53 million contract win on 19 May.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Electro Optic Systems (EOS)
TPG issues FY25 guidance, capital management plans
[9:20 am] TPG guided to FY25 statutory EBTIDA between $1.64-1.69 billion vs. prior guidance of $1.95-2.03 billion (unclear if comparable to $1.94 billion consensus).
This follows the completion of the sale of TPG's fibre network infrastructure assets and enterprise/government/wholesale fixed business to Vocus Group on 31 July 2025.
TPG says the Vocus transaction has generated net cash proceeds of approximately $4.7 billion, with the company planning:
Return up to $3 billion to shareholders via a capital reduction of up to $1.61 per share
An option for minority shareholders to increase their ownership to TPG by reinvesting their capital reduction proceeds into new TPG shares (raising up to $688 million)
Target repayment of up to $2.4 billion of bank borrowings
New policy to increase dividends over time as cash flow and profit grows, with FY25 dividend targeted to be 18 cents pre share (equal to FY24)
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: TPG Telecom (TPG)
Telix issues 1H25 OPEX guidance
[9:11 am] Telix advises that its OPEX for the first-half of 2025 will be approximately 36% of revenue, reflecting "the expanded business activities and the Company’s ongoing strategy to reinvest earnings in commercial growth and pipeline development opportunities."
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)
Austal finalises Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement, upgrades FY25 guidance
[9:07 am] Austral has finalised its Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement (SSA) with the Commonwealth of Australia. The key highlights include:
Austal Defence Australia will lead the build and delivery of two key defence programs: Landing Craft Medium (LCM): 18 vessels and Landing Craft Heavy (LCH): 8 vessels
The company expects to generate significant revenue from the management and delivery of the LCM program, with construction revenue to be booked by Austal Ships.
Final contracts for the LCM program are expected in 1Q26, covering the construction of 18 vessels over 8 years for A$1–1.3 billion.
The final LCM is expected by 2032, implying a steady pipeline of work and revenue visibility.
The Commonwealth will receive a Sovereign Share in Austal Defence Australia and enter into a Shareholders Deed to regulate governance and national interest considerations.
In parallel with the announcement, Austral upgraded its FY25 EBIT guidance to 'not less than $100 million' vs. prior guidance of 'not less than $80 million'.
Citi analysts (Jun-25) forecast FY25 EBIT of $82 million, suggesting the new guidance is at least 22% above their forecasts.
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Austal (ASB)
Credit Corp reports solid recovery in FY25
[8:59 am] Credit Corp delivered relatively positive numbers for FY25, with the result underpinned by "the consumer lending segment which reported strong earnings growth as lending volumes moderated after several years of significant post-COVID re-leveraging."
Revenue up 5% to $545.6m vs. Macquarie ests (May-25) of $567.5m (3.8% miss)
NPAT up 86% to $94.1m vs. $93.2m ests (1.0% beat)
EPS up 86% to 138.2 cents vs. 135.3 cents ests (2.1% beat)
Full-year dividend up 79% to 68 cents per share vs. 68 cents ests (in-line)
The company guided to strong investment and profit growth for FY26, including:
Ledger investment between $280-330m
Gross lending of $350-390m
NPAT between $100-110m vs. $108.3m ests (3.0% miss at the midpoint)
EPS between 147-162 cents vs. 157.2 cent ests (1.7% miss at the midpoint)
Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Credit Corp (CCP)
HMC to raise $1 billion for its energy transition fund
[8:53 am] HMC Capital is raising $1 billion for its energy transition fund, half the amount originally planned. The fund’s focus has narrowed to wind farms and battery storage, dropping earlier ambitions for hydrogen, biofuels, and carbon capture.
Acquisition of a $950 million portfolio from Brookfield (formerly owned by Neoen) includes 650MW of operating assets and up to 6GW of development projects.
The Neoen deal was funded with $550 million in senior debt, $200 million mezzanine, and $50 million equity from HMC. Assets will be combined with StorEnergy, HMC’s existing storage business. HMC estimates the portfolio is worth over $1.3 billion, based on implied sum-of-the-parts. HMC expects gross equity returns of at least 15% on the portfolio.
Source: AFR
Berkshire shares tumble on billion-dollar writedown
[8:49 am] Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares fell as much as 3.4%, hitting their lowest level since February, after reporting a multibillion-dollar writedown and no share buybacks.
The company took a $3.8 billion writedown on its Kraft Heinz stake, cutting the carrying value to $8.4 billion, down from over $17 billion in 2017.
Berkshire skipped buybacks for the fourth straight quarter, even though shares have dropped 15% since Buffett’s retirement announcement in early May.
Multiple strategists warn investors of a near-term correction
[8:46 am] Analysts at Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Evercore ISI all flag risks of a pullback in the S&P 500 following its rapid rally since April.
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees a ~10% correction this quarter as tariffs start hitting consumers and corporate margins.
Evercore’s Julian Emanuel warns of a more severe 15% drop, citing valuation and macro risks.
Deutsche Bank notes a correction is statistically overdue after three months of strong gains.
Last week's rising inflation, slowing job growth, and soft consumer spending have increased fears that the US economy is losing momentum. Historically, August and September are the weakest months for equities, with average S&P 500 losses of 0.7%, versus +1.1% in other months. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500’s RSI hit 76, well above the 70 ‘overbought’ threshold, and the highest since July 2024 — a level that previously marked a market top.
Source: Bloomberg
Good morning!
[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are up 86pts (+0.99%), set to recoup most of Friday's selloff and bring the market within 0.2% of all-time highs. The strong showing follows a solid overnight bounce in major US benchmarks, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.47% and the Nasdaq surging 1.95% to recover most of their previous session losses.
If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.
