Why Life360 might be one of the best growth stories on the ASX
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/Evening Wrap: ASX 200 surges back to winning form, 7's the lucky number as mining, energy, and tech stocks rebound
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Market Wraps
/Evening Wrap: ASX 200 surges back to winning form, 7's the lucky number as mining, energy, and tech stocks rebound
Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 surges back to winning form, 7's the lucky number as mining, energy, and tech stocks rebound
Fri 09 Aug 24, 5:40pm (AEST)
Stocks in article
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 95.7 points higher, up 1.25%.
What a week! The Bad, the Ugly, and today, the Good.
A very tidy 95.7 points to the better on the benchmark S&P/ASX 200, and if 7 is your lucky number, today's close of 7777.7 is one hell of a good omen!
It was a massive day in news and moves, and as usual we have everything you need to know to keep your portfolio in tip-top financial crisis beating shape! So...
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Fri 09 Aug 24, 5:36pm (AEST)
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Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 95.7 points higher at 7,777.7, 1.25% from its session low and just 0.22% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by an impressive 242 to 33.
For the week, the XJO finished down 165.5 points or 2.1% lower. Interestingly bulls and bears were roughly even as the end of week close was 2.0% above the intraweek low and 2.1% below the intraweek high.
In a start contrast to how we started this week, all 11 of the major ASX sectors closed in the black. The Information Technology (XIJ) (+3.1%) sector was the best performing sector, partly in response to a similar strong performance of the Nasdaq Composite Index in the USA overnight, but also due to a massive 18.1% gain in location tracking software app developer Life360 (ASX: 360) (see Interesting Moves for more details).
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Life360 (360) | $17.56 | +$2.69 | +18.1% | +6.1% | +132.3% |
Catapult Group International (CAT) | $2.13 | +$0.13 | +6.5% | +6.0% | +108.8% |
Nuix (NXL) | $3.23 | +$0.15 | +4.9% | -8.0% | +136.6% |
Dicker Data (DDR) | $9.77 | +$0.31 | +3.3% | -5.9% | +21.4% |
Megaport (MP1) | $10.24 | +$0.3 | +3.0% | -12.0% | -1.4% |
Wisetech Global (WTC) | $89.51 | +$2.32 | +2.7% | -9.2% | +2.1% |
Xero (XRO) | $131.81 | +$3.35 | +2.6% | -6.8% | +8.9% |
Appen (APX) | $0.805 | +$0.015 | +1.9% | +73.1% | -61.0% |
Technology One (TNE) | $21.21 | +$0.39 | +1.9% | +13.3% | +38.0% |
Nextdc (NXT) | $15.65 | +$0.27 | +1.8% | -14.7% | +22.7% |
Iress (IRE) | $10.11 | +$0.11 | +1.1% | +24.4% | +0.7% |
The best performers in the ASX Technology sector today
Also doing well today was the Gold (XGD) (+2.5%) sub-index. It’s had an otherwise tough week as gold prices failed to respond meaningfully to the recent market turmoil. Quite possibly (probably) fund managers had put some cash in this sector based on the belief it would do well in the event of gold benefiting as a flight to safety asset.
We saw some pretty nasty stuff in global markets this week – yet gold did nothing. Interestingly (and a bit at odds with conventional thinking!), gold rallied Thursday in-line with risk assets. Go figure. Either way, gold stocks got a boost today!
Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iperionx (IPX) | $2.06 | +$0.24 | +13.2% | -6.4% | +91.6% |
West African Resources (WAF) | $1.330 | +$0.085 | +6.8% | -6.7% | +53.8% |
Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.615 | +$0.035 | +6.0% | +1.7% | +75.7% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | $1.955 | +$0.095 | +5.1% | +29.5% | +200.8% |
Emerald Resources (EMR) | $3.55 | +$0.17 | +5.0% | -10.4% | +60.6% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | $1.705 | +$0.08 | +4.9% | -2.8% | +1.8% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | $1.905 | +$0.085 | +4.7% | -2.3% | +57.4% |
De Grey Mining (DEG) | $1.140 | +$0.045 | +4.1% | -1.3% | -13.7% |
Genesis Minerals (GMD) | $2.06 | +$0.075 | +3.8% | +5.4% | +52.0% |
Bellevue Gold (BGL) | $1.290 | +$0.045 | +3.6% | -34.5% | -15.4% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $2.41 | +$0.08 | +3.4% | -8.7% | +40.9% |
Capricorn Metals (CMM) | $5.76 | +$0.18 | +3.2% | +9.5% | +41.2% |
Red 5 (RED) | $0.355 | +$0.01 | +2.9% | -15.5% | +91.9% |
Westgold Resources (WGX) | $2.73 | +$0.07 | +2.6% | +7.1% | +87.0% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | $1.595 | +$0.04 | +2.6% | -14.9% | -0.9% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $3.77 | +$0.06 | +1.6% | +0.3% | +1.3% |
Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $72.37 | +$1.15 | +1.6% | +7.1% | 0% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $13.97 | +$0.17 | +1.2% | +5.1% | +28.4% |
The best performers in the ASX Gold sector today
There was plenty of other love (and cash) to be spread around other sectors too, with Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+2.1%) (high-yield helped by steadying of carry trade) and Communication Services (XTJ) (+1.9%) (tech heavy, but a good result from REA Group (ASX: REA)) doing well.
Also delivering a market beating performance today were the usual sector underdogs Energy (XEJ) (+1.6%) and Resources (XJR) (+1.6%) sector. For energy, crude oil and coal prices rose yesterday – that helped, but for Resources, key metals copper, nickel, and iron ore continue to struggle. The trends in both sectors remain very much set to the downside…
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spartan Resources (SPR) | $1.180 | +$0.06 | +5.4% | +20.4% | +348.2% |
Deep Yellow (DYL) | $0.975 | +$0.04 | +4.3% | -34.6% | +32.7% |
Coronado Global Resources (CRN) | $1.345 | +$0.055 | +4.3% | -3.9% | -7.6% |
Champion Iron (CIA) | $6.00 | +$0.23 | +4.0% | -5.7% | +7.0% |
South32 (S32) | $2.94 | +$0.11 | +3.9% | -18.8% | -24.2% |
Iluka Resources (ILU) | $5.73 | +$0.2 | +3.6% | -13.7% | -42.7% |
Nickel Industries (NIC) | $0.780 | +$0.025 | +3.3% | -5.5% | -3.7% |
Core Lithium (CXO) | $0.096 | +$0.003 | +3.2% | -4.0% | -84.1% |
Chalice Mining (CHN) | $1.020 | +$0.03 | +3.0% | -20.9% | -82.7% |
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) | $3.07 | +$0.09 | +3.0% | +1.7% | -42.3% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | $0.875 | +$0.025 | +2.9% | -9.3% | -67.8% |
Sandfire Resources (SFR) | $8.03 | +$0.22 | +2.8% | -11.6% | +23.7% |
Yancoal Australia (YAL) | $7.02 | +$0.19 | +2.8% | -0.4% | +41.5% |
Beach Energy (BPT) | $1.425 | +$0.035 | +2.5% | -6.3% | -14.4% |
New Hope Corporation (NHC) | $4.93 | +$0.12 | +2.5% | -0.2% | -8.1% |
Boss Energy (BOE) | $2.94 | +$0.07 | +2.4% | -26.1% | -0.3% |
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | $6.06 | +$0.14 | +2.4% | -5.3% | -12.8% |
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) | $25.49 | +$0.56 | +2.2% | -11.6% | -33.6% |
Fortescue (FMG) | $18.49 | +$0.39 | +2.2% | -16.0% | -12.5% |
The best performers in the ASX Energy and Resources sectors today
ChartWatch
Newcastle Coal Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE
Slow burn...might be nothing...might be something
In this evening’s ChartWatch I bring you encouraging news regarding the benchmark Australian thermal coal price. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still 99% of a trainwreck compared to the post-Ukraine invasion high of $436.25 set back in September 2022 – but there are some tentative signs of life here.
I should clarify, it’s “encouraging” if you own or are contemplating owning ASX listed coal stocks, it’s discouraging if you prefer paying less to keep the lights on.
Long term trend change 101 (considering we don’t have candles on this one):
Short term trend ribbon: Should transition from 🟥⬇️ to 🟩⬆️
Long term trend ribbon: Should transition from 🟥⬇️ to at least 🟧➡️*
Price action should transition from falling peaks / falling troughs 📉 to rising peaks / rising troughs 📈
Price should close above long term key points of supply – in this case 151-156
*Note: I don’t require 🟩⬆️ in the long term trend ribbon to call a new long term uptrend, as there's usually such a long lag in this indicator that by the time it does – candles, price action, volume, and volatility have long signalled the commencement of the new long term uptrend.
What I do require to confirm a transition to new long term uptrend if the long term uptrend ribbon is only neutral, is a test and hold of the long term uptrend ribbon. So, this means the formation of a trough above the trend ribbon (it could be in the trend ribbon, but ideally it is above).
This important factor demonstrates the long term uptrend ribbon has transitioned from a barrier of dynamic excess supply to a barrier of dynamic excess demand. It critical in confirming a new state of excess demand, as it implies the existence of long term buy the dip activity.
Let’s do the check list for the coal chart as it stands now:
ST trend ribbon = 🟩⬆️ = ✅
LT trend ribbon = 🟧➡️ = ✅
Price action = 📈 = ✅
Trough > LT trend ribbon = ❌
Close > 151-156 = ❌
For me, investing is really this simple: It’s just analysis of the demand supply environment and seeing if I can check all the boxes on my checklist.
West Texas Light Crude Oil Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) NYMEX
Stuck in the middle with crude 🎵
I usually do Brent Crude Oil in ChartWatch, but I had a request via my Twitter/X to do West Texas…so here it is! You’re welcome to follow me on X as I do post charts and market news during the day, and I do respond to requests.
There’s not a great deal to report on WT crude oil from a trend followers perspective – but to be fair – sideways is still a trend.
I note a short term downtrend within a neutral long term trend; price action is falling peaks and falling troughs; and candles since the 71.67 low have been credibly demand-side.
It is not surprising the recent bounce is stalling at the dynamic supply expected at the short and long term trend ribbons.
Apart from these, 78.88 is the next key point of supply. 70.67-71.67 is the next key point of demand. Bigger picture, the price action is stuck within a range defined by 70.67-71.67 and 82.27-84.83.
For me, there’s really not much to do here until the price of WT crude oil closes above 84.83 or below 70.67. For those who enjoy the ebb and flow, I do see the rally from 71.67 as positive – or “credible” as I put it earlier. For it to continue, we’d need to see a close above the trend ribbons, and preferably also 78.88.
Continued demand-side candles (i.e., white-bodied and or downward pointing shadows) and a return to rising peaks and rising troughs would further solidify the bull case. The opposite – well that would do the opposite!
Economy
Today
There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today
Later this week
Friday
11:30 CHN Consumer Price Index (CPI) July (+0.3% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% p.a. in June)
11:30 CHN Producer Price Index (PPI) July (-0.9% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% p.a. in June)
Latest News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+18.1% Life360 (360) - Q2 2024 Results and Q2 2024 Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈
+13.2% Iperionx (IPX) - No news, trying to bounce off long term uptrend ribbon 🔎📈
+8.0% Avita Medical (AVH) - Financial Results for Quarter Ending 30 June 2024 and AVITA Medical Q2 2024 Earnings Slides
+7.9% IDP Education (IEL) - Change in substantial holding from CGF (increase) and Change in substantial holding (increase)
+7.6% News Corporation (NWS) - FY2024 Fourth Quarter Earnings Release, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+7.4% Droneshield (DRO) - No news since 1 Aug Successful Completion of $120m Underwritten Placement, upgraded to BUY from hold at Bell Potter
+7.2% EML Payments (EML) - Change in substantial holding (increase)
+6.8% West African Resources (WAF) - Rebound after sharp drop following yesterday's
+6.8% REA Group (REA) - REA Group FY24 Financial Information Released and REA Group Investor and Analyst Presentation FY24, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+6.7% Immutep (IMM) - No news since 7 Aug Immutep to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences
+6.5% Catapult Group International (CAT) - No news since 6 Aug Catapult 2024 AGM - Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+6.0% Resolute Mining (RSG) - No news, generally stronger ASX gold sector today on bounce in gold price Thursday, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+5.7% Block (SQ2) - No news, tracked a similar rally in it's US listed securities
+5.4% Spartan Resources (SPR) - No news since 7 Aug Diggers and Dealers - Corporate Presentation, ditto stronger gold sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+5.0% Emerald Resources (EMR) - No news since 6 Aug EMR and MACA to Continue Partnering on Future Developments, ditto stronger gold sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+4.9% Gold Road Resources (GOR) - No news since 6 Aug Investor Presentation - Diggers & Dealers, ditto stronger gold sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
Trading lower
-5.5% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - Phase 2 trial shows significant improvements in Angelman and NNZ-2591 Angelman top-line results presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, falling peaks and falling troughs, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉
-4.7% Adairs (ADH) - No news
-4.3% Pacific Smiles Group (PSQ) - Resignation of Non-Executive Director
-3.0% Light & Wonder (LNW) - Plenty of broker action today after yesterday's LNW Releases Q2 2024 Results, see Broker Notes for details
-2.2% Jupiter Mines (JMS) - No news since 6 Aug Diggers and Dealers Investor Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, falling peaks and falling troughs, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉
-1.8% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term and long term downtrends 🔎📉
-1.7% QBE Insurance Group (QBE) - 2024 Half Year Results and Financial Statements and Market Presentation on 2024 Half Year Results, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, falling peaks and falling troughs, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉
-1.7% Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC) - No news, downgraded to UNDERPERFORM from neutral at Bank of America and price target cut to $4.40 from $4.50
-1.7% Tyro Payments (TYR) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term and long term downtrends 🔎📉
-1.6% Hansen Technologies (HSN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term and long term downtrends 🔎📉
-1.3% Nanosonics (NAN) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📉
Broker Notes
Audinate Group (AD8)
Upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $11.00 from $18.00
AMP (AMP)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.25
Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.32
Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $1.20
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.26 from $1.16
Upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.48 from $1.29
Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $1.07 from $0.98
ANZ Group (ANZ)
Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.50
Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $26.20
Aroa Biosurgery (ARX)
Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $0.71 from $1.20
Credit Corp Group (CCP)
Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.01
Charter Hall Long Wale Reit (CLW)
Upgraded to neutral from underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $3.60
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.50
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.34
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.08
Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.45 from $3.62
Coronado Global Resources (CRN)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85 from $1.90
Coronado Global Resources (CRO)
Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.25 from $1.60
Endeavour Group (EDV)
Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $5.80 from $6.00
James Hardie Industries (JHX)
Downgraded to neutral from positive at E&P; Price Target: $51.60 from $54.40
Light & Wonder (LNW)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $186.00 from $180.00
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $186.00 from $178.00
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $178.00 from $171.00
Arcadium Lithium (LTM)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.25 from $9.50
Mirvac Group (MGR)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.07 from $2.19
Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.35
Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $2.20
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.35
Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $2.04 from $2.02
Nick Scali (NCK)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $17.30
News Corporation (NWS)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $46.00
Paladin Energy (PDN)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $15.20 from $16.00
Piedmont Lithium (PLL)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.25
Premier Investments (PMV)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $36.00
QBE Insurance Group (QBE)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $20.00
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.40
REA Group (REA)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $210.00
Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)
Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.50
Stockland (SGP)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.00
Transurban Group (TCL)
Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $13.25 from $13.49
Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $12.70
Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $13.30 from $13.40
Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $13.10
Retained at neutral at E&P; Price Target: $12.73 from $12.93
Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $12.40 from $12.70
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $14.20 from $14.30
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.73 from $12.81
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $13.40 from $13.60
Wesfarmers (WES)
Downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $61.00
Scans
Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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