Evening Wrap: ASX 200 steady as silver stocks surge – silver price edges towards multi-decade high

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 3.2 points lower, down 0.04%.

Gold and silver prices are turning higher again, silver in particular, leading to precious metals stocks closing out another strong week on the ASX.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

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Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 3.2 points lower at 8,614.1, about smack–bang at the mid-point of the session's range, 0.29% from its session low and 0.22% from its high. If there was a silver lining, it was that in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a healthy 181 to 98.

ASX 200 (XJO) weekly chart

For the week, the XJO finished up 197.6 points or 2.4% higher, 2.4% from its intraweek low and just 0.4% from its intraweek high.

Fund flows: Silver lining...

A bit of a defensive bent to today’s trade with the Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+1.3%), Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+1.3%), and Utilities (XUJ) (+1.0%) topping the sector performance list. Gold’s been good for a long time now, so no surprise there – and as we noted in ChartWatch Markets earlier this week – gold and silver prices are turning higher again. (Silver in particular 👇)

Silver Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX chart is a picture of excess demand

Can I just offer you one observation about the chart above, because I trust that long suffering readers of ChartWatch know exactly how to read its trends, price action and candles: This is what total demand-side control looks like on a chart! 💪

Also doing well, and possibly out of the big funds’ naughty corner, is Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.9%) and to a lesser extent, it’s high P/E Ratio rotation victim Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.4%). A 6% weekly gain for the XIJ certainly suggests at least a modest re-rating of the sector.

Resources (XJR) (+0.3%) was there or there abouts, with lithium stocks deserving yet another honourable mention. See the Interesting Moves section below for a few of the better performers there...

Talking about sectors in the “naughty corner” (does anyone remember the Supernnany!?), can I now say that Financials (XFJ) (-0.7%) is officially in the fund managers’ naughty corner – i.e. one of the sectors they're rotating out of to free up cash to buy their favourite sectors. Looking at the charts below, I think we can just about add Real Estate (XPJ) (-0.4%) to the petulant child list as well!

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

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ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Snoozefest 🥱!

Today's 45 point range, or just 0.5%, backs up a similar comatose session from yesterday. Both snoozefests are largely in response to the Thanksgiving Holiday in the USA = This is how the ASX 200, a.k.a. the Old Tin Pot, trades when left to its own devices! 🤦

Nothing going on... tumbleweeds...

If you squint to try to ascertain who had control of today's candle, the downward pointing shadow was slightly longer than the upward pointing one, and we closed above today's balance point (i.e., mid-price). So, "demand-side control" – if you can call that a decisive conclusion!

Note, only a half session of trading on tap tonight in New York – and it's usually a quiet one given most fund managers are taking a four-day long weekend.

In the mean time, there's no change to yesterday's analysis for what must happen next in terms of price action and candles versus key levels, and there's similarly no change to my Risk Bucket max-fill setting either...

View

I remain comfortable at 1/3RP 🪣. (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%). There is no change to my view because there is insufficient evidence in the technicals that the demand-side is back in control of the ASX 200’s price = I believe that the MOTN (More Often Than Not) still lies with lower and not higher prices in the near future.

Key levels

8383 is the closest point of demand. A close below this price would confirm the new long term downtrend (i.e., the bull market in ASX stocks is over! 🤯). The short and long term trend ribbons are the closest zone of supply (presently 8545-8725). In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, the ASX 200 must close back above this zone to demonstrate the demand-side is back in control.

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Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

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Latest News

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Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +22.0% Lake Resources (LKE) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +19.0% Invictus Energy (IVZ) – Results of Annual General Meeting, today's move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +15.5% Argosy Minerals (AGY) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +13.6% Boab Metals (BML) – No news since 27-Nov Binding Commitment for Project Finance, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +13.3% Winsome Resources (WR1) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.4% Aeris Resources (AIS) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +11.1% Silver Mines (SVL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +10.7% Focus Minerals (FML) – Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.4% Galan Lithium (GLN) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.1% Polymetals Resources (POL) – Endeavor Mine Working Capital Facilities Secured, general strength across the broader Silver sector today.

• +9.6% Titan Minerals (TTM) – General strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.5% Select Harvests (SHV) – Continued positive response to 26-Nov Change in substantial holding from PPT.

• +9.4% European Lithium (EUR) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +9.0% HMC Capital (HMC) – Becoming a substantial holder (Danielle Di Pilla 5.1%).

• +8.6% Artrya (AYA) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +8.1% New Murchison Gold (NMG) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -5.3% SKS Technologies Group (SKS) – No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -3.7% Eagers Automotive (APE) – No news.

• -3.6% Qualitas (QAL) – No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -3.6% Suncorp Group (SUN) – South-east Queensland weather update, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -3.5% Centuria Capital Group (CNI) – 2025 AGM Chairman and Joint CEOs Addresses.

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Broker Moves

Boab Metals (BML)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.77

Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.30

Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $15.00

• Downgraded to sell from buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $7.60 from $15.20

Downer EDI (DOW)

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.60 from $6.80

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.50 from $7.65

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $8.25 from $7.75

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $8.00 from $7.50

DPM Metals Inc. (DPM)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $49.00

HUB24 (HUB)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $104.80 from $104.20

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $112.00 from $113.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $110.00 from $117.00

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.75

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.25 from $9.65

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.00

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.10

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.00

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $10.50 from $11.00

Matrix Composites & Engineering (MCE)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.26 from $0.28

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.57

Nick Scali (NCK)

• Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $27.00

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.57

Northern Minerals (NTU)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.05 from $0.07

NRW Holdings (NWH)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.95 from $5.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.05 from $4.45

Peoplein (PPE)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.19 from $1.03

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $21.90

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $25.25

• Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $20.70 from $20.20

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $23.00 from $23.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.90 from $23.50

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $22.00 from $24.30

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $24.15 from $24.70

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.90

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $19.25 from $22.10

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $22.75

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $20.00 from $21.20

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.15 from $25.00

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.50 from $22.50

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $22.00 from $23.15

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $34.00

Veem (VEE)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.20 from $1.75

Woolworths Group (WOW)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $31.00 from $29.50

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Scans