Evening Wrap: ASX 200 edges higher on WTC, CAT, XRO rebound, EVN leads stronger gold sector

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 10.8 points higher, up 0.13%.

A strong rally in US technology stocks overnight has flowed through to local Information Technology plays, with Wisetech Global (WTC) (+6.9%), Catapult Sports (CAT) (+5.7%), and Xero (XRO) (+2.3%) leading the sector's recovery.

Elsewhere, major iron ore and lithium stocks within the Resources sector pulled back, but precious metals stocks continued to gain following a strong performance in the silver price overnight. Evolution Mining (EVN) (+2.2%) was the sector leader there.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 10.8 points higher at 8,617.3, 0.37% from its session high and just 0.17% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a sliver… 144 to 135.

Fund flows: Only so far...

The Information Technology (XIJ) (+2.0%) sector snapped back today, albeit modestly so compared to the 21% 3-month underperformance of the ASX 200 it was sporting prior to today’s open. The reason? Oversold, better value, bargain hunting, Nasdaq rally… no idea… you’d have to ask every buyer and seller why they did what they did today to find out… Can I offer D > S = P⬆️?

Hey, if Tech is going to rally, it has to start somewhere, and today it started in the stocks most responsible for its recent demise, Wisetech Global (WTC) (+6.9%), Catapult Sports (CAT) (+5.7%), and Xero (XRO) (+2.3%).

Naturally, in true Old Tin Pot style, if Tech was going to be up, it almost guaranteed that its sector-rotation nemesis Resources (XJR) (-0.3%) was going to be down – albeit only modestly so.

I note that Health Care (XHJ) (+0.8%) has continued its recent strong form, with the other high P/E Ratio sectors previously savaged with Tech, Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.3%) also prospering.

Something I am increasingly noting, is the regular underperformance of the Financials (XFJ) (+0.1%) sector. Potential Tech rally be dammed, the Old Tin Pot is only going to get so far without those big banks!

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Today was pretty typical of a local trading session ahead of a non-trading day in the US tonight = 🥱

Still, for what it’s worth, the intraday chart shows some pretty steady excess supply from around midday. It’s roughly where we’d expect it (within the long term trend ribbon), and it’s responsible for the modest upward pointing shadow on today’s candle.

But, it’s such a small signal, and on only roughly average volume = Not going to read too much into it!

We are stuck in Limbo Land… Between a rock and a hard place… Or whatever phrase you want to use to describe the present rally versus the preceding substantial 9116-8383 sell off.

You know the drill from here: I require confirmation the demand-side is indeed moving back into confident control of the price / the supply-side is relinquishing it:

• A higher trough to 8383, preferably on a strong demand-side candle (i.e., a long white-body and or a long downward pointing shadow / either type with a close at or very near the high of the session).

• More demand-side candles in general.

• A close back above the “hard place” i.e. the confluence of the short and long term trend ribbons (presently 8545-8730)

Until then, the rally thus far remains "promising but unconvincing". We should therefore discuss the “supply-side reasserts control” scenario:

• A lower peak is formed, particularly on a strong supply-side candle ((i.e., a long black-body and or a long upward pointing shadow / either type with a close at or very near the low of the session).

• A close back below the bottom of the long term uptrend ribbon (presently 8545).

• A close below 8383 = ⚠️🚨

View

I remain comfortable at 1/3RP 🪣. (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%). There is no change to my view because there is insufficient evidence in the technicals that the demand-side is back in control of the ASX 200’s price = I believe that the MOTN (More Often Than Not) still lies with lower and not higher prices in the near future.

Key levels

8383 is the closest point of demand. A close below this price would confirm the new long term downtrend (i.e., the bull market in ASX stocks is over! 🤯). The short and long term trend ribbons are the closest zone of supply (presently 8545-8730). In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, the ASX 200 must close back above this zone to demonstrate the demand-side is back in control.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 10:50 AUS October Private Sector Credit

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +26.2% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +15.4% EQ Resources (EQR) – Update On Refinancing Spanish Debt and 2025 AGM Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +14.5% Locksley Resources (LKY) – Drill Program Operations Commence at El Campo, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, bounced perfectly off the long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +12.9% Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit (HCW) – No news.

• +10.2% HMC Capital (HMC) – No news.

• +9.6% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news.

• +8.7% Mayfield Group Holdings (MYG) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.7% GQG Partners (GQG) – No news.

• +8.1% Digico Infrastructure Reit (DGT) – No news, general strength across the broader Industrials sector today.

• +6.9% Wisetech Global (WTC) – Appointment of additional Independent Non-Executive Director, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +5.9% Light & Wonder (LNW) – No news.

• +5.7% Catapult Sports (CAT) – No news, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

Trading lower

• -11.1% Australian Ethical Investment (AEF) – Superannuation trustee licence conditions.

• -8.8% Horizon Minerals (HRZ) – pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -7.8% Droneshield (DRO) – Ceasing to be a substantial holder (JP Morgan Chase & Co.), pulled back in the wake of yesterday's sharp rally.

• -6.6% Argosy Minerals (AGY) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• -6.3% Lake Resources (LKE) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

• -6.0% St George Mining (SGQ) – Annual General Meeting Presentation.

• -5.9% European Lithium (EUR) – No news, general weakness across the broader Lithium sector today.

Broker Moves

Advanced Innergy Holdings (AIH)

• Initiated at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.40

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $72.70

Aroa Biosurgery (ARX)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.85

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.00 from $1.05

Chrysos Corporation (C79)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $8.70 from $6.80

Catapult Sports (CAT)

• Initiated at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $6.25

COG Financial Services (COG)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.70

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $3.90

Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.10 from $10.00

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $37.00 from $35.30

FleetPartners Group (FPR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.59 from $3.68

Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.70

• Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $7.90 from $6.10

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $7.60 from $6.70

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $7.30 from $7.50

• Downgraded to neutral from outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.60 from $7.40

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.60

• Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.20 from $5.90

Judo Capital Holdings (JDO)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.95 from $1.90

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $41.70

Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $7.70

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $206.00

Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $95.00

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $64.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $95.00

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.35

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.70

Metallium (MTM)

• Initiated at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.60

Motorcycle Holdings (MTO)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.25

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.60

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Downgraded to hold from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $2.84 from $2.65

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.55

Objective Corporation (OCL)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $20.00 from $22.90

Proteomics International Laboratories (PIQ)

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $0.43

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $11.50

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $25.60

Select Harvests (SHV)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.80 from $5.45

• Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.30 from $4.02

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.05 from $4.95

Straker (STG)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.37 from $0.38

Tabcorp Holdings (TAH)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.12

Transurban Group (TCL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.10

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.35

Technology One (TNE)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $34.50

Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $19.50 from $28.00

• Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $19.60 from $32.79

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $24.15 from $31.30

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $32.00

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $14.80 from $17.70

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.52

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $5.60 from $6.20

• Initiated at speculative buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $4.50 from $4.95

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $94.00 from $123.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $130.00

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $194.00

Zip Co (ZIP)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.40

Scans