Morning Wrap: ASX set to climb after Wall Street surges and Canada’s TSX hits record

ASX 200 futures are up 21pts (+0.24%) as of 9:07 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Global risk rally: U.S. stocks extended their winning streak to a fourth day, while the mighty mining mecca that is Canada’s TSX - powered by gold’s rise and a near-4% surge in silver - blasted to a fresh record above 31,000.

• Broad-based gains: From Asia to Europe, risk assets climbed, with Bitcoin and oil also higher. Investors shrugged off last week’s correction and priced in increasing odds of a December Fed cut, while U.S. market breadth improved - the S&P 500 equal-weight index gained 0.83%.

• Gold in focus: Canadian gold-miner ETFs spiked more than 4% for the second time this week, making ASX gold names ones to watch today.

Reminder: US equity markets are closed in observance of Thanksgiving tomorrow, and will close at 5am AEDT on Saturday.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 stronger again, closing not far from session high (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Momentum outperformed. After the recent selloff, momentum names led the rebound, with beaten-up AI stocks like Nvidia and Oracle bouncing while earlier winners such as Google cooled off.

• Treasuries were mixed. The bond market saw a bit of curve flattening, and the 7-year auction tailed.

• Dollar softened. The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.1%.

• Gold edged higher. The metal finished the session up 0.6%.

• Bitcoin rebounded. Futures jumped 2.6%, reversing early weakness and pushing back toward the $90K mark.

• Oil gained. WTI crude settled 1.2% higher.

STOCKS

• Robinhood surged almost 11% after announcing it will take a 90% stake in the MIAX Derivatives Exchange from Miami International Holdings. The company also revealed plans to launch its own futures and derivatives exchange, expected to go live in 2026.

• Dell climbed 6.8% as margins and earnings topped expectations, even though Q3 revenue came in slightly light.

• Oracle rose 4% after Deutsche Bank argued the market is undervaluing its relationship with OpenAI. Analysts noted the stock has fallen roughly 40% since September on concerns about AI-related profitability and debt, even though fundamentals remain intact.

FEDERAL RESERVE

• The Fed’s latest Beige Book - a survey of economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve districts - showed a largely stagnant economy, with most regions seeing little change in activity and consumer spending soft outside of high-end retail.

• Labour markets continued to cool, with roughly half of districts reporting slight declines in employment, weaker hiring appetite, freezes, and reliance on attrition rather than layoffs. Skilled positions remained hard to fill and were often filled by immigrants.

• Wage and price pressures moderated overall, though wage growth stayed firmer in manufacturing, construction, and healthcare. Businesses still faced higher input costs from tariffs, insurance, and utilities, with mixed ability to pass these costs on to consumers.

GEOPOLITICS & TRADE

• MIT's Iceberg Index finds AI can already replace ~11.7% of the US workforce, accounting for ~$1.2T in wages (CNBC)

• Smaller retailers faced tariff-related inventory chaos preparing for the holiday shopping season (Reuters)

• Mortgage purchase applications jump 7.6% w/w to highest level since early 2023 (Bloomberg)

UK REVEALS BUDGET, TAXES GO UP

• The UK unveiled its much-anticipated Budget, with markets watching closely given the country’s fragile fiscal position. Chancellor Reeves focused on rebuilding fiscal headroom - now £21.7B funded largely through £26B in mostly back-loaded tax increases. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) still sees only a 59% chance of meeting fiscal rules on current policy.

• Tax measures dominated the statement: Revenue will come from freezing income tax thresholds (£8B), reducing pension salary-sacrifice relief (£4.7B), lifting taxes on dividends/property/savings (£2B), and a range of other levies. These help offset a £10B boost to welfare spending, including the removal of the two-child benefit cap.

• Markets welcomed the emphasis on discipline: Gilts rallied, sterling strengthened, and UK equities rose. Housebuilders and financials benefited from relief around sector-specific taxes, while gambling stocks lagged on higher duties. Markets broadly viewed the Budget as better than feared.

ASX TODAY

• Rio Tinto (RIO) expected to launch the sale process for its California boron assets in the new couple of weeks and that the assets could generate proceeds of up to $2B, Bloomberg reports

• Reece (REH) to launch on-market share buyback targeting up to A$35M

• Bellevue Gold (BGL) ore production from Deacon North remains on schedule to start in the Jun-26 quarter

• Beach Energy (BPT) interested in investing in Narrabri, according to the AFR; quoting Beach CEO Brett Woods: "Narrabri is a really exciting project ... that Australia needs to get developed."

WHAT TO WATCH 

• The ASX’s relative performance will largely hinge on how expectations evolve around the RBA - specifically, whether it stays on hold or lifts rates next year.

• Case in point: CBA's chief economist is now warning that rate hikes could re-emerge in 2026 after the latest inflation spike (ABC)

• ASX-listed Kiwi insurer Tower (TWR) reports dividend boost on the back of record result (Announcement)

• As millions of Australians gear up for record Black Friday spending, personal credit and charge-card balances accruing interest have climbed to their highest level since 2021 (ABC)

BROKER MOVES

• WiseTech Global (WTC) upgraded to POSITIVE from NEUTRAL at E&P; target decreased, however, to $94 from $123

• Temple & Webster Group (TPW) upgraded to NEUTRAL from SELL by UBS; target decreased, however, to $14.80 from $17.70

• Objective Corp (OCL) upgraded to ACCUMULATE from HOLD at Morgans; target decreased, however, to $20 from $22.90

• Harvey Norman (HVN) downgraded to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM at Macquarie; target increased, however, to $7.60 from $7.40

• Metallium Limited (MTM) initiated at SPECULATIVE BUY at Canaccord Genuity; target price set at $1.60

• Catapult Sports (CAT) re-initiated buy at Morgans; target set at $6.25

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• 26 November: Als (ALQ) – $0.194; Graincorp (GNC) – $0.24; Infratil (IFT) – $0.059

• 27 November: Amcor (AMC) – $0.198; Technology One (TNE) – $0.30; Webjet Group (WJL) – $0.02

• 28 November: Metrics Income Opportunities Trust (MOT) – $0.011; Metrics Master Income Trust (MXT) – $0.012; Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Fund (MRE) – $0.008

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None to note.

• Listing: Equus Energy (27/11), Black Horse Mining (28/11)

• Earnings: Tower (TWR)

• AGMs: A couple to watch among small and micro caps including AGH, CVB, PV1, GSM, WNX

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• Australia - Building, private capital and industrial expenditure (11:30 AM)