Evening Wrap: ASX 200 sneaks slim gain on supermarkets rebound, gold still golden, Woodside's slide continues

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 10.3 points higher, up 0.13%.

A quote from today's ChartWatch analysis of the S&P/ASX 200:

"I get the feeling the bulls are taking a back seat here. I think they know they’ve got some time, and probably also that the supply side is a little more motivated this time than the last few times."

It looked like an up day today, but it wasn't nearly enough to address at least two large elephants sitting in the corner of the room!

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 10.3 points higher at 8,216.0, roughly in the middle of the session’s narrow range 0.24% from its low and just 0.20% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers only just beat decliners by 142 to 138.

The Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+1.3%) was the best performing sector today, likely in response to a relief rally in major supermarket operators Woolworths Group (ASX: WOW) (+1.6%) and Coles Group (ASX: COL) (+1.4%) as their lawyers began arguing their case against the ACCC in the Federal Court today. It wasn’t our fault it was our suppliers’ fault was the gist of their defence.

Elsewhere in the sector Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE) (+2.2%) gained after it was upgraded to BUY from NEUTRAL at Citi. The broker cited the recent share price fall as creating better value in the stock, also noting it saw no reason to amend its prevailing $12.97 target price.

Also doing well today was the Gold (XGD) (+0.89%) sub-index – no surprises there – the drivers of this sector have been well covered in this Wrap, and in particular, in the ChartWatch section here, and by identifying dozens of fantastic uptrends in ASX precious metals stocks in my Daily Scans lists. Silver popped again overnight, and that’s no doubt also assisting interest in the sector.

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.44%), Resources (XJR) (+0.23%), and Financials (XFJ) (+0.20%) each logged very moderate rebounds from yesterday’s falls. Nothing really cut through in terms of themes – here or otherwise today – it just looked like a market struggling for direction ahead of a big risk event (e.g., next week’s BOJ meeting…and perhaps even next month’s US Presidential Election – now less than 2 weeks away!)

Have we seen Aussie fund managers check out for a while? 🤔

Today’s best performing stocks from today’s best performing sectors

Doing it tough today was the Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.0%), Energy (XEJ) (-0.75%), and Health Care (XHJ) (-0.51%) sectors. Again, there wasn’t anything specific about these moves that I could see.

A continued rise in market yields likely undermined tech, but there’s plenty of stock-specific news stuff going on here also – see Audinate Group (ASX: AD8) (-4.3%) (still reeling from yesterday’s trading update) and Wisetech Global (ASX: WTC) (-1.4%) (still struggling with CEO/Founder scandal).

Energy stocks were down on poor performances in the uranium segment. No specific news there, we’re just seeing massive volatility in the sector (up and down) as the uranium price stagnates (see yesterday’s Wrap’s ChartWatch).

Elsewhere in the sector, heavyweight Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) (-1.1%) dipped despite stronger crude prices overnight. Looking at the chart below, I suggest the trend is not definitely your friend here…(unless you’re short, that is! 🔎📉)

Woodside Energy chart

Today’s worst performing stocks from today’s worst performing sectors

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

An interesting chart

The last time we covered the XJO was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 21 October.

In that update, we had just witnessed a quick recovery of Friday’s dip. That dip I put down to Friday follies – nothing to sinister – was still good.

Here we are again – post-dip! But this time, I can’t put yesterday’s move down to mere Friday fund manager shenanigans, it was just too big a supply-side candle, and it closed right on its low. It’s a credible threat to the prevailing demand-side environment – which to be fair still exists given rising trend ribbons and still-rising peaks and rising troughs. I note that the short term uptrend ribbon is also doing its job of acting as dynamic demand for now.

But unlike Monday’s quick retracement of Friday’s decline, today was nothing as such. It was rather pathetic, don’t you think?

I get the feeling the bulls are taking a back seat here. I think they know they’ve got some time, and probably also that the supply side is a little more motivated this time than the last few times.

Given our proximity to the two major risk events I mentioned above, I’d suggest that “simply sideways” is actually a win for us here. I’d like to see the price remain above the short term trend ribbon in an ideal world, but failing that, fingers crossed it can remain above 8107. Below that, we’ll know something is wrong with this temperamental bull market.

Looking at the bright side of the technicals, if we can quickly regain at least 50% of yesterday's big black candle, it would hold us in good stead for a retest of 8385, i.e., the only clear point of supply of any consequence.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Thursday

• 09:00 AUS Flash PMIs October

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI: was 46.7 in September

  • Flash Services PMI: was 50.5 in September

• 19:00 EUR Various EU countries and European Flash PMIs October

  • EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI: 45.1 forecast vs 45 in September

  • EUR Flash Services PMI: 51.5 forecast vs 51.4 in September

Friday

• 00:45 USA Flash PMIs October

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI: 47.5 forecast vs 47.3 in September

  • Flash Services PMI: 55.0 forecast vs 55.2 in September

• 23:30 USA Core Durable Goods Orders September (-0.1% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in August)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.0% Silver Mines (SVL) - No news (since 15 Oct Bowdens Silver Project Update), generally stronger ASX silver sector today on silver price trading at 12-year highs

• +10.0% Austin Engineering (ANG) - New Constitution and CEO and MD's Address to 2024 Annual General Meeting

• +9.1% Macmahon (MAH) - Investor Presentation - Introduction to Decmil, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

• +8.4% Dropsuite (DSE) - Quarterly Business Update for Q3 FY24 and Investor Presentation Q3 2024 Update, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

• +7.9% Garda Property Group (GDF) - Divestment - North Lakes, closed back above long term trend ribbon

• +4.2% Pantoro (PNR) - No news, generally stronger ASX gold sector today on gold price continuing to probe all time highs, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

• +3.5% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, ditto strong gold stocks, ditto rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

• +3.4% Qantas Airways (QAN) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list regular) 🔎📈

• +3.2% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - Continued positive response to yesterday's Quarterly Activities Report and Quarterly Cash Flow Report, ditto strong gold stocks

Trading lower

• -32.2% Playside Studios (PLY) - Operating Update & FY25 Guidance and Chairman and CEO AGM Addresses

• -22.1% 29METALS (29M) - Quarterly Report for the Sept 2024 Quarter and Sept 2024 Quarterly Report - Investor Presentation

• -10.3% Ioneer (INR) - No news today but note yesterday's September 2024 - Quarterly Cash Flow Report and September 2024 - Quarterly Activities Report

• -8.6% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and falling peaks and falling troughs, needs to bounce from the long term trend ribbon ⚠️

• -5.0% Mineral Resources (MIN) - Continued negative response to yesterday's 2024 Annual Report but more likely to this: Statement in response to recent media reports, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends list regular) 🔎📉

• -4.4% Droneshield (DRO) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down (a recent regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists) 🔎📉

• -4.4% Audinate Group (AD8) - Continued negative response to yesterday's Q1 FY2025 Update and AGM Chair and CEO Presentations, also several broker price target cuts and one rating downgrade (see Broker Moves section below), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends list regular) 🔎📉

• -4.2% Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down, closed below long term trend ribbon 🔎📉

Broker Notes

• The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.04

• Alcoa Corporation (AAM)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.16 from $0.19

• Audinate Group (AD8)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $10.50 from $12.00

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $9.00 from $12.00

  • Retained at hold at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $9.45 from $10.50

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.50

  • Retained at hold at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $9.00 from $9.30

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $12.20

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $50.00

• Aroa Biosurgery (ARX)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.90

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.05

• Australian Vanadium (AVL)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.08

• Beforepay Group (B4P)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.15 from $1.75

• Beacon Lighting Group (BLX)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.35

• Car Group (CAR)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $44.50 from $40.90

• Champion Iron (CIA)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.20

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $345.00

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $325.00

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $330.00

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $330.75

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $320.00

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $340.00

• Domain Australia (DHG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.65

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.40

• Dropsuite (DSE)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.09 from $3.78

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $4.80 from $4.10

• Findi (FND)

  • Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.52

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.30

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.00 from $7.30

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.70 from $7.90

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.70

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.10

• Impedimed (IPD)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.19 from $0.20

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.13 from $0.15

• Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $8.60

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.05

• Meteoric Resources (MEI)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.20

• Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $10.10

• Mirvac Group (MGR)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.25 from $2.10

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.46 from $2.07

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.29

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $39.00

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $42.00 from $54.00

• Medibank Private (MPL)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.84

• NIB (NHF)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.40 from $7.35

• National Storage Reit (NSR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.70

• Netwealth Group (NWL)

  • Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.50 from $23.50

• News Corporation (NWS)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $52.00 from $48.90

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $3.30

• Praemium (PPS)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.63 from $0.55

• Pexa Group (PXA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $16.20 from $15.70

• REA Group (REA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $245.00 from $221.00

• Seek (SEK)

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $21.50 from $19.50

• Stockland (SGP)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.15

• Stanmore Resources (SMR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.35

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $4.05 from $4.10

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.20

• Transurban Group (TCL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $14.20

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $13.40 from $13.30

  • Retained at neutral at Jefferies; Price Target: $12.30 from $12.40

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $12.70

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.67 from $13.00

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.33

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $12.65

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $13.20 from $13.40

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.55 from $14.60

• Technology One (TNE)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $24.00

• Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.50

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $12.97

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $14.60

• Viva Energy Group (VEA)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.30 from $3.50

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.70

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.15 from $4.10

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.33

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.50

• Worley (WOR)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $18.00

• Wisetech Global (WTC)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $138.00

  • Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $121.00

Scans