Evening Wrap: ASX 200 pops on silver and gold price surges, Wisetech and Mineral Resources savaged by CEO indiscretions

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 61.2 points higher, up 0.74%.

It was a welcome return to form for Aussie stocks today, particularly considering Friday's dour loss.

You just can't fault the ASX gold sector right now. It's going from strength to strength as the gold price continues to notch record highs. But the most recent (Friday) record high on gold wasn't the headline for the sector today, rather, today's interest was stoked by a massive pop in the silver price.

More broadly, key Resources stocks bounced back in response to a rebound in base metals and iron ore prices, but due to a bigger than expected cut by the People's bank of China to two of its key lending rates.

Only Technology stocks missed out, and even then the losses were concentrated in sector heavyweight Wisetech Global (WTC). It and Mineral Resources (MIN) found themselves on the wrong side of investor perceptions regarding respective CEO indiscretions ("alleged" indiscretions!).

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 and Silver in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 61.2 points higher at 8,344.4, 0.73% from its session low and just 0.14% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a solid 182 to 87.

Today's best performing sectors: Gold (XGD) (+3.7%) sub-index, Resources (XJR) (+1.5%), Energy (XEJ) (+1.3%).

Best performing ASX stocks from the best performing ASX sectors today

Today's worst performing sectors: Information Technology (XIJ) (+-%), Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.2%), Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.2%).

Worst performing ASX stocks from the worst performing ASX sectors today

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Who doesn't love an ice cream sandwich?

The last time we covered silver was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 16 October.

In that update, we noted that trends, price action, candles and interactions with both dynamic and static points of demand/supply were all tracking in line with strong demand-side control.

Friday was a shot across the bow, but as I suspected (see Friday’s Evening Wrap for my explanation of what happened), it was probably just a “Friday thing”.

Today’s return to form is consistent with the price action I’d ordinarily expect in a strong demand-side controlled market, and importantly, the vast majority of Friday’s decline was eliminated.

8385 is supply. I don’t think there’s anything too sinister about it at this stage.

Demand is at the short term uptrend ribbon (8230-8180).

An increasing prevalence of Friday-style supply-side candles would raise one of my eyebrows, as would the formation of a lower peak to 8385. But until we see a close below the short term uptrend ribbon, I suggest there’s not a great deal for the bulls to worry about here.

Silver Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

D > S = P⬆️

The last time we covered silver was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 16 October.

In that update, I noted “there are tentative signs in the technicals at least one more push is likely in store” and that a break of the supply zone theoretically “could happen very quickly” once underway.

Probe, remove supply, fail, probe, remove supply, fail, probe, remove supply (supply is now gone and demand remains), break! It’s a process.

A process that’s being playing out in markets since before tulips were all the rage in 1636.

Good news silver bulls, that last push – pushed through. But! The upward pointing shadow in Friday’s candle showed there remained a modest amount of trepidation, even if only a touch of stop-run hunting blow off.

Importantly, today’s candle – so far just Asian trade – has overwhelmed any supply lingering around the top of the supply zone, and it’s sitting nicely above 33.505. Today’s candle is still live – so draw any actionable conclusions until it closes.

Assuming that the close of today’s candle is high / near the high of its range, then the 32.425-33.505 supply zone transitions to a demand zone. In my experience, the more reliable was the supply zone, the more reliable it tends to be as a demand zone.

Trends are ST⬆️/LT⬆️. Price action is rising peaks and rising troughs 📈. Candles are predominantly demand-side (i.e., white-bodied and/or downward pointing shadows). Trend ribbons are acting as zones of dynamic demand.

In short: ✅✅✅✅ vis-à-vis demand-side control.

Until I see those ✅ transition to ❌, I will have no reason but to stay the course here. And that’s about as complicated as any investing strategy should be!

For perspective, check out this chart I posted on my Twitter/X feed today...monthly chart, just candles, log scale...nice and clean. Next potential points of supply: 35.36 (Oct 2012), 37.46 (Feb 2012), 44.14 (Aug 2011), and finally, April 2011's 49.51.

Silver monthly chart for perspective, candles, log scale.

Economy

Today

• CHN 1 & 5 year rate

  • 1 year rate: -0.25% to 3.10% vs -0.20% to 3.15% forecast

  • 5 year rate: -0.25% to 3.60% vs -0.20% to 3.65% forecast

Later this week

Tuesday

• No major economic announcements

Wednesday

• 00:25 UK BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech

• 06:15 EUR ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

Thursday

• 09:00 AUS Flash PMIs October

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI: was 46.7 in September

  • Flash Services PMI: was 50.5 in September

• 19:00 EUR Various EU countries and European Flash PMIs October

  • EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI: 45.1 forecast vs 45 in September

  • EUR Flash Services PMI: 51.5 forecast vs 51.4 in September

Friday

• 00:45 USA Flash PMIs October

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI: 47.5 forecast vs 47.3 in September

  • Flash Services PMI: 55.0 forecast vs 55.2 in September

• 23:30 USA Core Durable Goods Orders September (-0.1% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in August)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +16.5% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news, just an improving demand-supply environment for the stock - hence it first made ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list on 3 October after months in the Downtrends lists, note also it was in today's Uptrends list also! Rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +15.6% 29METALS (29M) - No news, generally stronger ASX resources sector today, copper price bounced back on Friday, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up, watch out for this one in tomorrow's ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +14.3% Core Lithium (CXO) - Gold hits continue as drilling resumes at Shoobridge (it's a gold stock now! 🥇)

• +10.2% Amotiv (AOV) - 2024 Annual General Meeting Addresses and Notification of buy-back - AOV and 2024 Annual General Meeting Slides

• +8.6% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news, generally stronger ASX uranium sector today, possibly due to supply disruption at BHP's Olympic Dam mine which accounts for around 7% of global annual uranium supply, US U-stocks also nicely higher on Friday

• +8.3% Silver Mines (SVL) - No news, silver price breakout on Friday followed through to Asian trade (see today's ChartWatch section for more details)

• +7.4% Genesis Minerals (GMD) - No news, generally stronger ASX gold sector today on new record for gold price on Friday, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been a regular in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

• +7.3% Alkane Resources (ALK) - No news, ditto strong ASX gold sector

• +7.2% West African Resources (WAF) - No news, ditto strong ASX gold sector

• +7.1% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - No news, ditto strong ASX gold sector

• +6.2% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news, ditto strong ASX uranium sector

• +6.2% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, ditto strong ASX gold sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been a regular in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list - as recently as today!) 🔎📈

• +6.0% Adriatic Metals (ADT) - No news, ditto silver price breakout, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been a recent regular in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

• +5.8% Ioneer (INR) - N and N, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up (has been a recent regular in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

• +5.8% Novonix (NVX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +5.8% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - N and N, ditto strong ASX gold sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +5.4% Vault Minerals (VAU) - No news, ditto strong ASX gold sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +5.3% Generation Development Group (GDG) - N, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been a regular in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

• +5.2% Spartan Resources (SPR) - No news, ditto strong ASX gold sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been a regular in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

• +5.2% Evolution Mining (EVN) - No news, ditto strong ASX gold sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been a regular in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

• +5.0% Emerald Resources (EMR) - No news, ditto strong ASX gold sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been a regular in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

• +5.0% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news, ditto strong ASX uranium sector

• +4.9% Silex Systems (SLX) - No news, ditto strong ASX uranium sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been a regular in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

• +4.8% Westgold Resources (WGX) - No news, ditto strong ASX gold sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been a regular in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

• +4.8% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - No news, ditto strong ASX uranium sector, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (has been a regular in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list) 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -14.6% Wisetech Global (WTC) - Response to Media Reports

• -13.8% Mineral Resources (MIN) - Statement in response to recent media reports and 2024 Annual Report

• -6.4% Lovisa (LOV) - No news, third day of negative response to 16 Oct Change in substantial holding (sell down from 41.2% to 39% holding by Brett Blundy)

• -5.1% Lake Resources (LKE) - There wasn't any clear reason for its rise, so not surprisingly, there's no obvious reason for today's dip - albeit a modest one within the context of the last 7 sessions' rally!

• -5.0% Cettire (CTT) - No news, but possibly NCK freight cost announcement at play here…🤔

• -4.1% Nick Scali (NCK) - Chair and MD 2024 AGM addresses with Trading Update

Broker Notes

• The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.04

• Abacus Group (ABG)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.15

• Atlas Arteria (ALX)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.26

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.55

• AMP (AMP)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.34 from $1.30

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.00

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.50

• Amotiv (AOV)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.65

• Arena Reit (ARF)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.15

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $47.10

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $48.00 from $48.30

• Beach Energy (BPT)

  • Upgraded to hold from sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.25

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.10

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $1.90

  • Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $1.30

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.60

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.35

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.23

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.65

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.60

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $91.50

• Challenger (CGF)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.85 from $7.95

• Charter Hall Group (CHC)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.43

• Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.20

• Charter Hall Long Wale Reit (CLW)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.34

• Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.87

• Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.42

• CSL (CSL)

  • Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $345.00

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $345.00

• Data#3 (DTL)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.00 from $8.70

• Dexus Industria Reit (DXI)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.19

• Dexus (DXS)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.52

• EVT (EVT)

  • Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $12.73 from $11.32

  • Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $12.29 from $12.46

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $11.50 from $12.00

• Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $24.35

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $17.00 from $20.00

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $19.50 from $22.80

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $23.34 from $25.06

  • Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $18.50

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $22.51 from $26.79

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $23.50 from $26.80

  • Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $22.29 from $28.56

• Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.20

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.55

• Goodman Group (GMG)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $36.47

• Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.35

• GPT Group (GPT)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.98

• Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit (HCW)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.32

• Homeco Daily Needs Reit (HDN)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.19

• HMC Capital (HMC)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.01

• Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.60

• Mirvac Group (MGR)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.07

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $50.00

• National Australia Bank (NAB)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $26.50

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $38.00

• Nick Scali (NCK)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.53

• National Storage Reit (NSR)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.51

• Orica (ORI)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $19.00 from $19.50

• Perpetual (PPT)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $24.76 from $27.60

• PWR Holdings (PWH)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.75 from $10.50

• Qualitas (QAL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.94

• Region Group (RGN)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.38

• South32 (S32)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.90

• Scentre Group (SCG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.60

• Serko (SKO)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.40

• Santos (STO)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.50 from $8.40

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

  • Retained at hold at Citi; Price Target: $12.97

• Vicinity Centres (VCX)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.04

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $24.75

• Weebit Nano (WBT)

  • Initiated at buy at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $4.00

• Wildcat Resources (WC8)

  • Initiated at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $0.70

• WEB Travel Group (WEB)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $5.60 from $10.00

Scans