Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 and Dow at record highs + Gold miners set to soar

ASX 200 futures are trading 44 points higher, up 0.52%, as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Major US benchmarks finished higher led by better-than-expected Netflix earnings, uranium stocks continued to tick higher on big tech power supply deals, China's economic data surprises to the upside but property sector still in shambles, local gold mining stocks set to soar as bullion prices continue to climb higher and the several companies are set to debut on the ASX in the coming weeks.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, finished near best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher and finished near best levels

• S&P 500 logged sixth straight week of gains, Dow closed at all-time highs

• US weekly recap – Russell 2000 (+1.87%), Dow (+0.96%), S&P 500 (+0.85%), Nasdaq (+0.80%)

• Today’s big story – A fairly quiet Friday session, boosted by better-than-expected earnings from Netflix (+11.0%) and data indicating newest Apple (+1.2%) iPhones have sold 20% more than the 2023 model  

• Trump trades appear to return with US small-cap stocks, bitcoin climbing, Mexican peso, Treasuries slip (RT)

• Nuclear energy stocks hit record highs as Amazon, Google secure power supply deals to underpin AI (FT)

• Yen carry trade may be back in vogue amid expectations of slower pace of BoJ tightening, less aggressive Fed easing (FT)

• Institutional demand propelling Bitcoin higher with retail traders mostly on sidelines (BBG)

STOCKS

• Netflix shares soar 11% as revenue, earnings and subscriber growth top analyst expectations, Q4 guidance ahead and initial 2025 outlook guiding to 11-13% revenue growth (BBG)

• Apple iPhones sales in China are up 20% in their first three weeks compared with 2023's model, as demand returns (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• PBOC's Pan flags further cuts to RRR and LPRs (RT)

• PBOC launches swap, relending schemes to support capital markets, in $112Bbn yuan funding schemes (RT)

• Markets raise ECB rate cut bets, seeing chance of 50 bps move in December following Thursday's meeting (RT)

• ECB's Villeroy forecasts 2% inflation target reached by 2025, signals further rate cuts (BBG)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• US push ceasefire in Gaza after Israel killed Hamas leader Sinwar (BBG)

• Hezbollah in Lebanon says it is entering a "new and escalating phase" in its battle with Israel on its northern border (FT)

ECONOMY

• China Q3 GDP and September activity data – Industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment – better than expected ahead of stimulus push (BBG)

• China home prices fall at fastest pace since 2015, real estate investment down more than 10% (RT)

• UK retail sales unexpectedly higher in September, contradicting signs that consumers were downbeat (RT)

• Japan core inflation eases as expected on restart of energy subsidies, demand-driven pressure intact (RT)

ASX TODAY

• BHP and Vale reportedly agreed to settlement amount (~US$30bn) with Brazil to compensate for damages from  2015 Mariana dam collapse (RT)

• BHP Olympic Dam copper mine idle for a week after electricity transmission towers were damaged by wild storms (AFR)

• Cuscal IPO priced at $2.50 per share or 13.1x FY25e earnings, company seeking to raise up to $336.8m (AFR)

• Peninsula Energy proposes 1-for-20 share consolidation, pending shareholder approval, allowing for greater liquidity as the stock will trade around ~$2 instead of 10 cents (PEN)

• PYC Therapeutics has been granted Orphan drug designation for VP-001 for inherited retinal dystrophy (FDA) 

• Vulcan Steel reports 1Q25 EBITDA down 30% year-on-year to NZ$33.1m, says soft business conditions expected to continue for the balance of 2024 (VSL)

• South32 reports Q1 alumina prod of 1,184Kt vs. 1,248kt consensus (S32)

• Wagners responds to ASX price query, not aware of any announced inflation which could explain 30% rally (WGN)

• WiseTech board to probe payments to CEO's ex-lover (AFR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold: Gold prices rallied 1.0% overnight to a record US$2,721/oz, sending the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 4.0%. This set up should see a strong session for local gold miners, many of which of which are already trending strongly and trading around 52-week highs

BROKER MOVES

• Beach Energy upgraded to Hold from Sell; target remains $1.25 (CG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 21 Oct: Clover Corporation (CLV) – 1.29%, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – 0.44%, Sandon Capital Investments (SNC) – 3.25%, WAM Capital (WAM) – 4.78%

• Tue 22 Oct: Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – 1.47%

• Wed 23 Oct: None

• Thu 24 Oct: None

• Fri 25 Oct: Bank of Queensland (BOQ) – 2.43%

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Capitol Health (CAJ), Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (CQE), Karoon Energy (KAR), Kelsian Group (KLS)

• Listing: None

• AGMs: Nick Scali (NCK), Amotiv (AOV), Stockland (SGP)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.