Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slumps on CPI shocker – economists flag September RBA rate hike

The ASX 200 fell as WiseTech Global's (WTC) full-year results — strong in earnings, but weak in guidance — sent the stock down 10% and dragged the entire technology sector with it. Woolworths delivered a strong result — but it wasn't enough to save stocks as inflation data for July showed price increases across the Australian economy remain stubbornly high.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let’s dive in!

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 36.8 points lower at 9,127.8, 1.0% from its session high and smack–bang on its session low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 111 to 175.

Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+1.8%) was Wednesday's standout — two consecutive days of supermarket results, both reassuring, have reset the sector's valuation case. Woolworths (WOW) (+3.4%) delivered full-year results that beat expectations in key operating metrics, with the nation's largest supermarket demonstrating that disciplined cost management and private label growth are insulating margins even as discretionary spending softens. Metcash (MTS) (+1.3%) and Coles (COL) (+1.2%) — the latter continuing to ride the afterglow of yesterday's beat — both advanced alongside the sector's improved sentiment.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+0.8%) extended its extraordinary August run despite COMEX gold futures easing marginally by 0.1% to US$4,690/oz — the equity gains continuing to outpace the commodity price signal as investors remain committed to the sector. Pantoro Gold (PNR) (+10.0%) and Perseus Mining (PRU) (+9.5%) led with sharp gains, followed by Alkane Resources (ALK) (+5.0%) and Westgold Resources (WGX) (+4.8%).

S&P-ASX 200 Materials Sector Index intraday chart

Materials (XMJ) (0.0%) finished flat at the sector level as the major diversifieds paused — BHP (BHP) (-0.4%), Rio Tinto (RIO) (+0.2%), and South32 (S32) (+0.2%) were all essentially unchanged — but the copper sub-sector continued to find buyers as COMEX copper futures gained 0.2% to US$6.726/lb after rising 1.7% overnight. Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+6.0%) was the standout, with 29Metals (29M) (+5.9%), Aeris Resources (AIS) (+2.2%), and Capstone Copper (CSC) (+0.5%) all advancing.

Information Technology (XIJ) (-3.5%) was Wednesday's worst sector by a significant margin, and the catalyst was entirely company-specific. WiseTech Global (WTC) (-10.1%) fell despite reporting full-year underlying net profit growth of 27% — the market apparently disappointed by signals in the result or accompanying commentary about forward revenue growth, given the stock had already rebounded 25% from its recent ACCC-related lows. The sector selldown was broad: Siteminder (SDR) (-8.5%), Xero (XRO) (-5.7%), and Catapult Sports (CAT) (-4.7%) were all caught in the downdraft.

Energy (XEJ) (-1.5%) fell as ICE Brent crude futures dropped 3.6% overnight before easing a further 2.1% to US$85.46/bbl in Asian trade — their sharpest two-day decline in a month — after media reports that Iran and Oman were in advanced discussions about improving traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The retreat unwound a meaningful portion of the geopolitical risk premium that had accumulated through July and August. Woodside Energy (WDS) (-3.2%), Karoon Energy (KAR) (-2.0%), Santos (STO) (-1.2%), and Beach Energy (BPT) (-1.7%) all fell.

Health Care (XHJ) (-1.2%) pulled back, possibly a straightforward profit-taking episode after an extraordinary run. Ansell (ANN) (-4.3%) — which had surged more than 21% across two sessions following its results — gave back some of those gains. Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) (-4.1%), Pro Medicus (PME) (-3.1%), and Sonic Healthcare (SHL) (-1.9%) were also lower as fund managers crystallised gains from one of the month's best sectoral trades.

S&P-ASX 200 Health Care Sector Index intraday chart

Financials (XFJ) (-0.6%) extended their losing run as Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-1.0%) continued its post-results drift and Westpac (WBC) (-0.6%) also fell. AMP (AMP) (-2.1%) and QBE Insurance (QBE) (-1.1%) added to the sector's pressure.

S&P-ASX 200 Financials Sector Index intraday chart

In other commodities moves, uranium stocks extended their third consecutive strong session as COMEX uranium futures gained 0.50% to close at US$90/lb — their first settle at or above that level since 3 February 2026. Bannerman Energy (BMN) (+8.9%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (+5.1%), Silex Systems (SLX) (+3.7%), Lotus Resources (LOT) (+3.6%), Boss Energy (BOE) (+2.5%), and NexGen Energy (NXG) (+1.4%) all advanced. GFEX lithium carbonate futures recovered 1.3% to CNY 152,160/t following yesterday's sharp 5.1% selldown — a modest stabilisation rather than a full reversal.

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX chart

Analysis

Modest demand side candle Tuesday. Not anywhere decisive enough to swing my thinking back to "short term demand side control of the Comp's price". The short term trend ribbon turned amber...

I suggest, it's equilibrium short term versus a still-intact long term demand side control thesis.

The Comp wants to get a wriggle on, though!

For full commentary on the Comp's chart and the GLC (yes, the GLC!!!) check out today's latest ChartWatch LIVE Webinar – the recording you can find by scrolling a little bit further down 👇

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1/2RP on US stocks. I still think we're MOTN P ⬆️ here, but who cares what I think – it only matters what the market does. (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).

Key Levels

26863 is the key point of supply vs the long term trend ribbon (presently 24054-24950) is the key zone of demand.

Analysis

I didn't have today's candle close in the webinar... what I saw at the time looked pretty darn good (the CPI data had only just come out...)

And, yes, looking at the end result — it's an acutely disappointing one.

Not a wipeout, but it's not a great look (on above average OTP and volume ⚠️) at a point where we don't want to see the supply side taking another swipe (just below 9297 ⚠️).

Oh Old Tin Pot... you do it to us every time! 😭

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I am FRP on Aussie stocks — waiting for the verdict at the short term trend ribbon before retreating, tail between my legs back to 2/3RP. (My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in ASX stocks is now 100%).

Key Levels

9297 is the key point of supply to contend with, while demand the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 9032-9084) but arguably 9019 is the go-no-go point for the current short term uptrend..

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)

***CHARTWATCH LIVE WEBINARS — NEW VIDEO DROPPED!!! 📺🍿***

Copper is rising, ASX copper stocks are surging – how high can BHP, RIO and SFR go? Plus: Lithium 🔋

TODAY

• AUS July Consumer Price Index (CPI)

  • Headline: +1.0% m/m and +3.5% p.a. vs +0.9% m/m and 3.3% p.a. forecast and -0.1% m/m and +3.8% p.a. in June

  • Trimmed Mean: +0.5% m/m and 3.6% p.a. vs +0.3% m/m and 3.5% p.a. forecast and +0.3% m/m and 3.6% p.a. in June

  • Reader: Higher than expected... stubbornly higher! Pretty much unanimous view among economists' commentary ex-post that the odds of another 0.25% rate hike have increased substantially, with some forecasting as soon as next month's RBA Board meeting scheduled for 28-29 September.

LATER THIS WEEK

WEDNESDAY

• 22:30 USA July Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (the US Federal Reserves preferred measure of inflation)

  • PCE Price Index: +0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.1% m/m in June

  • Personal Income: +0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in June

  • Personal Spending: +0.1% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in June

• 22:30 USA July Core Durable Goods Orders (+0.5% m/m forecast vs +0.7% m/m in June)

THURSDAY

• AUS July Household Spending (+0.4% m/m forecast vs 0.8% m/m in June)

FRIDAY

• ALL DAY USA Day 1 Jackson Hole Symposium

SATURDAY

• ALL DAY USA Day 2 Jackson Hole Symposium

  • 12:00 Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks