Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slides as Trump Trade unwind hurts financials and tech, resources hit by falling commodity prices

A modest unwinding of the Trump Trade that has so dominated local market proceedings over the last week saw some capital pull back from sectors like Technology, Financials, and more generally, those companies with a large portion of US-based earnings.

Alas, this did not mean this capital flowed back toward sectors that are seen to be major losers from the Trump Trade, like Resources and Energy. They were down again.

Still, there were are few sectors that managed to find gains, including uranium – if only recovering somewhat from yesterday's big sell off.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 62.2 points lower at 8,193.4, roughly mid-range, 0.67% from the session low and 0.76% from the session high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by to a sizeable 101 to 196.

The Utilities (XUJ) (+0.58%) was the only sector closing in the black today, but only modestly so. I note major constituent Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) (+0.90%) drove most of the gain here. No news.

Financials (XFJ) (-1.1%) was the hardest hit sector today, dragged lower by ANZ Group (ASX: ANZ) (-4.0%) going ex-dividend $0.83 fully franked, and adverse news updates from Insignia Financial (ASX: IFL) (-4.8%), Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG) (-4.8%), and NIB (ASX: NHF) (-4.4%) (see Interesting Moves section below for more details).

A modest unwinding of the Trump Trade that has so dominated local market proceedings over the last week saw some capital pull back from Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.0%). There were also a couple of nasty news related items here, including big falls by Nuix (ASX: NXL) (-22.2%) and Life360 (ASX: 360) (-7.4%).

Sure, the Trump Trade unwound a touch for those stocks that had benefited from it, but there was no respite for those sectors who are very likely to be hurt by it, like Resources (XJR) (-0.96%). This sector continued to suffer as base metals prices fell sharply on the London Metals Exchange Tuesday, and precious metals continued to edge lower.

Selected commodity price moves from Tuesday

There were some bright spots, however. Uranium stocks generally rebounded after their sharp sell of yesterday. The culprit of that sell off, Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN) (+8.6%) rebounded from Tuesday’s 29% plunge.

I also note that the odd lithium stock gained – but I would say this sector was notably absent from the gainers list today given that lithium minerals prices continue to rally strongly in China (what gives!? 🤔)

The best performing ASX stocks today

The worst performing ASX stocks today

Economy

Today

• AUS Wage Price Index September quarter

  • +0.8% and +3.5% p.a. vs +0.9% q/q and +3.6% p.a. forecast and +0.8% q/q and 4.0% p.a. in the June quarter

  • So, better than expected and a solid decline on June quarter wages growth, and does give the RBA a modicum of extra breathing room – but lower wages growth is less likely to stoke economic growth

  • Note, this is the first time wage growth has dipped below 4.0% since the June quarter of last year

Later this week

Thursday

• 00:30 USA Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) October (+0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. in September)

• 10:00 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks

• 11:30 AUS Employment change October (+25,200 jobs forecast vs +64,100 jobs in September), Unemployment rate forecast steady at 4.1% in September)

Friday

• 00:30 USA Core Producer Price Index October (PPI) (+0.2% m/m and +2.0% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% m/m and +2.0% p.a. in September)

• 07:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks

• 12:30 CHN Data Dump:

  • New Home Prices m/m (-0.7% m/m previous)

  • Industrial Production y/y (+5.5% y/y forecast vs +5.4% y/y previous)

  • Retail Sales y/y (+3.8% y/y forecast vs +3.2% y/y previous)

  • Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y (+3.5% ytd/y forecast vs +3.4% ytd/y previous)

  • Unemployment Rate (steady at 5.1%)

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Core Retail Sales October (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in September)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +28.3% Fineos Corporation (FCL) - Investor Presentation

• +8.8% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - No news, this week's strong rally in China in lithium minerals prices continued today

• +8.6% Paladin Energy (PDN) - No news since yesterday's Langer Heinrich Mine update and revision of FY25 guidance, generally positive response from brokers though, including one rating upgrade to BUY at Argonaut Securities (see Broker Moves section below for more details)

• +7.2% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - High-Grade Expansion at Patterson Corridor East, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (watch out for this one in tomorrow's ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends list!) 🔎📈

• +6.2% James Hardie Industries (JHX) - Q2 FY25 Results

• +6.1% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, bouncing from sharp pullback in gold stocks as a result of adverse US election result

• +6.0% OFX Group (OFX) - Change of Director's Interest Notice (on market purchase of nearly $250k - a day after big sell off on the back of yesterday's 1H25 Report and Accounts)

• +4.4% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - Continued positive response to yesterday's Receipt of EUR100m funding from German Federal Ministry, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (a ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists regular!) 🔎📈

• +3.8% Avita Medical (AVH) - AVITA Medical Q3 2024 Investor Presentation and AVITA Medical to Expand into Australia and New Zealand, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up (a recent addition to ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Uptrends lists!) 🔎📈

• +3.0% Sayona Mining (SYA) - No news, ditto likely benefiting from strong lithium minerals prices

Trading lower

• -22.2% Nuix (NXL) - Annual General Meeting 2024 Chairman and Group CEO Address

• -7.4% Life360 (360) - Q3 2024 Results and Q3 2024 Investor Presentation

• -7.2% Mineral Resources (MIN) - Bald Hill Operations and Mineral Resources Update and Response to ASX Query Letter (completely missed out on lithium minerals rally this week! 🤔), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists regular!) 🔎📈

• -6.6% Appen (APX) - No news, pullback from recent monster rally…generally weaker ASX Technology sector today

• -5.9% Tabcorp (TAH) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrends (a ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists regular!) 🔎📈

• -5.6% EML Payments (EML) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrends (a ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists regular!) 🔎📈

• -4.8% Insignia Financial (IFL) - FY25 Guidance update and FY24 Pro Forma Segment Detail and Strategy Update

• -4.8% Magellan Financial Group (MFG) - Resignation of COO/CFO

• -4.6% Sims (SGM) - Chair's Address to Shareholders

• -4.6% Light & Wonder (LNW) - Quarterly Report for Q3 2024

• -4.5% Clearview Wealth (CVW) - Continued negative response to 8 November 2024 AGM Addresses to Shareholders and proceedings, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📈

• -4.4% Firefly Metals (FFM) - No news since yesterday's Investor Presentation - UBS Australasia Conference, tough day for copper and gold stocks on weaker commodities prices

• -4.4% NIB (NHF) - Continued negative response to yesterday's nib guidance for FY25, 2 x broker rating downgrades (see Broker Moves section below for more details), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (a ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends lists regular!) 🔎📈

Broker Notes

• 29METALS (29M)

  • Retained at sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.29

• Acrow (ACF)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.30

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.29 from $1.25

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.30

• Adriatic Metals (ADT)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.80

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $67.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $67.00

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $47.15 from $47.00

• Abacus Storage King (ASK)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.35

• Andean Silver (ASL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.85

• Aurizon (AZJ)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.55

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.40

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $4.08

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.57 from $3.60

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.50

• Bellevue Gold (BGL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.25

• Brickworks (BKW)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $32.00 from $31.00

• Brightstar Resources (BTR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.06

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $91.50

  • Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $110.00

• Collins Foods (CKF)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $10.50 from $8.70

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.10

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.50

• Clearview Wealth (CVW)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.58 from $0.81

• Catalyst Metals (CYL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.00

• De Grey Mining (DEG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.90

• Dexus Convenience Retail Reit (DXC)

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.11 from $3.01

• Emerald Resources (EMR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.00

• Evolution Mining (EVN)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.20

• Fortescue (FMG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $19.40

• Fleetpartners Group (FPR)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.10

  • Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $3.55

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.80

• Gold Road Resources (GOR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.45

• Hillgrove Resources (HGO)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.10

• Helloworld Travel (HLO)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.50

• Hansen Technologies (HSN)

  • Upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.00

• Iluka Resources (ILU)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.10

  • Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.30

• Imdex (IMD)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.95

• Imricor Medical Systems (IMR)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.08 from $0.94

• James Hardie Industries (JHX)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $50.90

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $64.20

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $56.50

• Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.40

• Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

  • Upgraded to hold from sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.90 from $8.20

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $9.75 from $10.00

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $9.50

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $9.95 from $11.30

  • Retained at buy at Moelis Australia; Price Target: $12.00 from $13.10

• Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.70

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.90

• Metals Acquisition (MAC)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $22.00

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $38.00

• NIB (NHF)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $6.45 from $6.55

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $7.20 from $6.85

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $6.60 from $7.10

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $6.75 from $7.30

  • Downgraded to underperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.45 from $6.30

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.40

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $21.95

• Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.85

• Origin Energy (ORG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.00

• Predictive Discovery (PDI)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.50

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Upgraded to buy from hold at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $10.45 from $10.40

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $15.20 from $16.30

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $11.50 from $14.60

  • Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $14.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.30

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $15.80 from $16.00

• Pantoro (PNR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.18

• Perenti (PRN)

  • Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.47

• Perseus Mining (PRU)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.00

• Ramelius Resources (RMS)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.25

• Regis Resources (RRL)

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.65

• Resolute Mining (RSG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.75

• Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.85

• Rox Resources (RXL)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.55

• Sandfire Resources (SFR)

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $11.25

• Sheffield Resources (SFX)

  • Initiated at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.08

• Sims (SGM)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.00

• Santana Minerals (SMI)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.16

• Spartan Resources (SPR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.70

• Turaco Gold (TCG)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.70

• Toubani Resources (TRE)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.25

• Titan Minerals (TTM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.30

• Vault Minerals (VAU)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.51

• West African Resources (WAF)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.70

• Westgold Resources (WGX)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.40

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Initiated at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $31.75

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.50

• Xero (XRO)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $185.00 from $158.20

Scans