Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips as commodities, gold bloodbath continues...Paladin hobbles uranium but lithium stocks rejoice price recovery

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 10.6 points lower, down 0.13%.

Moves during ASX trade today were eerily similar to those witnessed yesterday, and indeed more generally since the results of last week's US election began to firm in investors' minds.

It’s just the way markets are operating in this post-Trump + Red Sweep world. Money has to find its way into the themes advantaged by the tectonic shift the US election results represents – and it’s going to take more than just a few sessions to make this happen.

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Copper and Iron Ore in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 10.6 points lower at 8,255.6, 0.48% from its session low and just 0.13% from its high. Despite the small dip in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers still managed to beat decliners by a tidy 168 to 111.

I could almost copy and paste in the Markets section from yesterday’s Evening Wrap.

It’s just the way markets are operating in this post-Trump + Red Sweep world. Money has to find its way into the themes advantaged by the tectonic shift the US election results represents – and it’s going to take more than just a few sessions to make this happen.

So, ditto from yesterday: High PE + US earnings exposure sectors were the best performers versus China and commodities related sectors were the worst. Gold continues to suffer – today most heavily since the election result – as it is one of the most disadvantaged asset classes by the aforementioned developments (see this article for an in-depth explanation of why).

The tables tell the story:

Today’s best performing stocks from the best performing sectors

Today’s worst performing stocks from the worst performing sectors

Of course, there was the usual bunch of stock specific stuff going on, like lithium’s resurgence (yes, I called the bottom in lithium prices yesterday!), and Paladin’s (ASX: PDN) (-29%) terrible news (lower than expected production last month and significant delays in the ramp up at Langer Heinrich) are both major features.

You’ll find explanations of these and others – plus relevant links – in the Interesting Moves section below.

Lithium carbonate futures January 2025 (benchmark month, back adjusted) GFEX as at close Monday 11 November (click here for full size image)

ChartWatch

High Grade Copper Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Trumped 👎 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered high grade copper was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 5 November.

In that update, we were in an upbeat mood, contemplating a potential resumption of the September surge in Chinese stock indices and the positive impact it was having on the copper price.

Alas, there was the small matter of the Trump + Red Sweep just a day later which stunned markets (markets were expecting Harris or Trump + split control of Congress). This means that President elect-Trump’s tariffs of up to 60% on some Chinese imports into the US (as much as 200% potentially claimed by him on Chinese auto imports) will likely eventuate.

You’ve already read countless articles in the media why this probably won’t be good for the prices of commodities China consumes (there’s also a less impetus to pursue renewables angle at play more specifically for copper…).

Technical analysis looks backwards. Not forwards. It knows only what the market knows at that last candle. If there’s a surprise – the next few candles can be very different from the last few.

Such is the life of a technical analyst!

To be fair, I was hardly calling rampaging longs here in that last update, merely noting some good vibes coming though from Chinese equities – which to be fair are largely flat since the US election result.

The technicals here have changed, however, and it is growing clear to me that the supply side is in control of the price again. The price has closed below the short term trend ribbon (neutralised, about to confirm a downtrend), the 4.274-4.291 static demand zone, and most importantly, back below the long term trend ribbon (also neutralised).

The last few candles (with the exception of the large demand-side candle on 7 Nov) are decidedly supply-side in nature. The big problem is the nullification of that bullish 7 Nov candle – it’s not a great look when such positivity is kyboshed so quickly.

The most likely scenario here is a probing of lower static points of demand at 3.989-4.042. We’ll just have to watch the candles and price action there. As usual, white bodies and downward pointing shadows plus a higher trough is a good sign the demand-side wants in again.

Supply is at 4.457-4.499, and then up to 4.762-4.79. The copper price will have to contend with both trend ribbons acting as dynamic supply before then.

It would something pretty special in the fundamentals to see a test of those zones any time soon – but if we have learned one thing over the last week – it’s that anything is possible!

(Confused by my TA jargon? No worries! Just read my Technical Analysis and ChartWatch Primer).

Iron Ore 62% (Front month, back-adjusted) SGX

Seasonally recalcitrant (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 17 October.

It’s a bit of a “ditto” for good old iron ore. Trumped x 2.

The trends here before the election result were hardly setting the world alight, despite ongoing promises of a bazooka of Chinese stimulus measure in the pipeline.

That pipeline is clearly clogged, or potentially crashed and leaking. Either way you want to slice and dice that analogy – Beijing is mysteriously quiet on the bazooka front.

Evey now and then, we do get a cap gun, like Friday’s local government refinancing measures. But it’s just not enough to undo the overall bearishness so clearly evident in the technicals here, let alone jump start the legendary iron ore end of year seasonal rally. To be fair, that rally usually gets into full swing in December – so there’s still time.

Until then, we must heed short and long term downtrends, indeterminate price action, and mixed candles (possibly skewed towards a growing predominance of supply-side indications).

106.20-108.95 plus the long term trend ribbon appear to be credible zones of excess supply, and above them lies the seemingly impenetrable 113.60-114.90.

It’s hard to get too excited about end of year rallies until these are dealt with.

98 is demand, but below that it’s a slippery slope to 88.35-89.15. There’s nothing in the technicals right now to suggest the path of least resistance isn’t’ pointed down there.

Economy

Today

• AUS Westpac Consumer Sentiment October

  • +5.3% to vs 94.2 (vs +6.2% in September)

  • Consumers now optimistic about outlook for economy and finances, however modest "pullback" since US election

  • Job loss fears now at a 19-month low

  • Christmas spending plans are trending towards "average" rather than "austere"

Westpac Consumer Sentiment. Source: Westpac Economics, Melbourne Institute

• AUS NAB Business Confidence October

  • +5 vs -2 September

  • "Business confidence rose sharply in the month and is now back around average and at its highest level since early 2023....Overall, the survey continues to paint a picture of resilient activity levels in the economy and a trend easing in price and cost pressures, though with capacity utilisation still high it will likely take more time before inflation pressures normalise" –NAB Economics

Confidence & Conditions (Net Balance, SA) Source: NAB Economics

Later this week

Wednesday

• 11:30 AUS Wage Price Index September quarter (+0.9% q/q forecast vs +0.8% q/q in June quarter)

Thursday

• 00:30 USA Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) October (+0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and +3.3% p.a. in September)

• 10:00 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks

• 11:30 AUS Employment change October (+25,200 jobs forecast vs +64,100 jobs in September), Unemployment rate forecast steady at 4.1% in September)

Friday

• 00:30 USA Core Producer Price Index October (PPI) (+0.2% m/m and +2.0% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% m/m and +2.0% p.a. in September)

• 07:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks

• 12:30 CHN Data Dump:

  • New Home Prices m/m (-0.7% m/m previous)

  • Industrial Production y/y (+5.5% y/y forecast vs +5.4% y/y previous)

  • Retail Sales y/y (+3.8% y/y forecast vs +3.2% y/y previous)

  • Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y (+3.5% ytd/y forecast vs +3.4% ytd/y previous)

  • Unemployment Rate (steady at 5.1%)

Saturday

• 00:30 USA Core Retail Sales October (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.5% m/m in September)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +14.7% Weebit Nano (WBT) - As we've reported here last few sessions, there has been no news to explain this sharp recent rise, indeed, the company has no idea either: Response to ASX Price Query

• +12.7% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - Receipt of EUR100m funding from German Federal Ministry, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +10.8% Appen (APX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +10.7% Block (SQ2) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +10.6% Dropsuite (DSE) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +8.6% Lindsay Australia (LAU) - Updated Results of Meeting, retained at BUY by 2 brokers today, see Broker Moves section below

• +8.1% Qoria (QOR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +8.1% Latin Resources (LRS) - No news, but ASX lithium stocks generally stronger today on big move up in lithium futures in China yesterday, modest follow through so far today…this one obviously tied to PLS fortunes via takeover

• +6.9% Galan Lithium (GLN) - No news, ditto stronger lithium stocks today

• +6.5% Sayona Mining (SYA) - No news, ditto stronger lithium stocks today

• +5.7% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, ditto stronger lithium stocks today

• +5.4% Myer (MYR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +4.7% Ioneer (INR) - No news, ditto stronger lithium stocks today

• +4.5% Zip Co. (ZIP) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Uptrends lists 🔎📈

• +4.2% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news, ditto stronger lithium stocks today, but there were several broker updates including a downgrade to SELL by Citi (see Broker Moves section below)

Trading lower

• -28.9% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Langer Heinrich Mine update and revision of FY25 guidance, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -15.4% OFX Group (OFX) - 1H25 Results Presentation and 1H25 Report and Accounts, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -8.6% Spartan Resources (SPR) - No news, another tough day for ASX gold sector - see this article for more details on why gold is suddenly out of favour with investors

• -8.2% Clearview Wealth (CVW) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -8.1% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX gold sector

• -7.7% Lycopodium (LYL) - Clarification Regarding Dividend Guidance, FY2024 AGM Presentation, and Lycopodium Sustainability Report FY2024, fall is consistent with short term downtrend, long term downtrend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• -7.0% Deep Yellow (DYL) - No news, most likely tagged by the PDN news / fall…closed below long term uptrend ribbon ⚠️

• -6.7% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX gold sector

• -6.3% Silex Systems (SLX) - No news, ditto tagged by PDN

• -5.8% Syrah Resources (SYR) - Benchmark Week 2024 Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch Daily Scans Downtrends lists 🔎📉

• -5.6% Vault Minerals (VAU) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX gold sector

• -5.1% Emerald Resources (EMR) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX gold sector

• -5.0% Firefly Metals (FFM) - Investor Presentation - UBS Australasia Conference, ditto tough day for ASX gold sector

• -5.0% West African Resources (WAF) - WAF Exploration Update 2024 and Ceasing to be a substantial holder, ditto tough day for ASX gold sector

• -4.7% Ramelius Resources (RMS) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX gold sector

• -4.6% Newmont Corporation (NEM) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX gold sector

• -4.5% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news, ditto tagged by PDN

• -4.2% Capricorn Metals (CMM) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX gold sector

• -4.2% Lotus Resources (LOT) - Completion of Infill and Exploration Programs at Letlhakane, ditto tagged by PDN

• -3.9% Regis Resources (RRL) - No news, ditto tough day for ASX gold sector

Broker Notes

• Aussie Broadband (ABB)

  • Initiated at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.40

• Alligator Energy (AGE)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.10

• Ampol (ALD)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $32.00

• Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $74.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $67.00 from $52.30

• Atlas Arteria (ALX)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.30

• AMP (AMP)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.48

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $34.00 from $33.20

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $30.00

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $39.20 from $40.00

• Abacus Storage King (ASK)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.40

• Aurizon (AZJ)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.55

• BHP Group (BHP)

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $43.00

• Boss Energy (BOE)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.70

• Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

• Challenger (CGF)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.80 from $7.20

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $8.10 from $7.60

• Cooper Energy (COE)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.23

• Comet Ridge (COI)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.26

• Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $39.10 from $40.00

• Deep Yellow (DYL)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.90

• Endeavour Group (EDV)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.89 from $5.18

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.50 from $6.20

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50 from $5.40

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.20

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.54 from $5.20

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.20 from $5.10

• Genesis Minerals (GMD)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.80

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.80

• Goodman Group (GMG)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

• HMC Capital (HMC)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.10

• Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.00

• Insignia Financial (IFL)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.68 from $2.21

• Infomedia (IFM)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.78 from $2.00

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.20

• Incitec Pivot (IPL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.10

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $3.35 from $3.30

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.10

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.05 from $3.00

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.90

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $3.15 from $2.91

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.45 from $3.35

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.90 from $3.60

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $85.00

• Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $15.80 from $16.80

• Lindsay Australia (LAU)

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.29 from $1.30

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.20

• Lendlease Group (LLC)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.00

• Lotus Resources (LOT)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.50

• Arcadium Lithium (LTM)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $8.60

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.50

  • Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.85

  • Downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $0.75 from $0.85

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.87 from $0.95

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.68

• Matrix Composites & Engineering (MCE)

  • Downgraded to hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.33 from $0.44

• Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $25.00

• Vaneck Gold Bullion ETF (NUZ)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.42

• Paladin Energy (PDN)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $14.40

• Pexa Group (PXA)

  • Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $17.80 from $17.70

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $16.00 from $16.20

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $14.65 from $14.90

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $16.00

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $14.51 from $14.71

• Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (QRI)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.60

• REA Group (REA)

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $245.00 from $240.00

• Stockland (SGP)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.35

  • Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.30 from $5.20

• Silk Logistics (SLH)

  • Downgraded to hold from add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.14 from $2.00

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.10

• Suncorp Group (SUN)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00

• Transurban Group (TCL)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.18

• Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.97

• Viva Energy Group (VEA)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.18

• Xero (XRO)

  • Retained at overweight

Scans