Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, Wall Street hovers at record highs, Gold prices tumble

ASX 200 futures are trading 4 points higher, up 0.04%, as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Major US benchmarks – The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq – all notched a fresh all-time high overnight while the path of least resistance continues to be higher, gold prices smashed overnight as Trump's victory has prompted massive outflows from gold-backed ETFs, commodity prices continue to dwindle after China's disappointing stimulus announcement last Friday and Paladin Energy has downgraded its FY25 production guidance (and withdrawn all other FY25 guidances).

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher but off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher, but off best levels

• S&P 500 set a fresh record close above 6,000 while the Dow and Nasdaq also notched fresh all-time highs

• Relatively uneventful session amid US federal holiday (Veteran's day), very few quarterly earnings, no economic data and quiet Fedspeak

• Path of least resistance remains higher, underpinned by unwinding of election hedges, VIX retreat, FOMO, favourable seasonality, resumption of buybacks, cyclical rotations, US growth outperformance and potential tax cuts

• S&P 500 quarterly earnings season (~90% of companies have reported) has shown a blended growth rate of 5.3% or 100 bps higher than what was expected

• JPMorgan forecasts strong S&P 500 rally into end of the year (BBG)

• Largest gold ETF recorded biggest weekly outflow in more than two years last week as Trump victory prompted traders to book profits (BBG)

• Trump win a big blow to renewable energy, prompting many developers to projects on hold and investors to dump shares (FT)

• Bitcoin breaks US$81,000 as Trump trade turbocharges cryptocurrencies, GOP closer to clinching control of Congress (FT)

• Global commodities stuck in a holding pattern after China's latest effort to revive its economy (BBG)

• A quarter of US Gulf of Mexico oil, 16% of natural gas offline after storm Rafael (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed chair Powell ready for legal battle if Trump tries to fire him (WSJ)

• Trump return puts new pressure on US inflation and risks ballooning the deficit, complicating Fed's rate path (YH)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• Trump tariff hikes likely used as bargaining chips in new trade negotiations (WP)

• Trump set to pick ex-ICE head Tom Homan as his US "Border Czar (AX)

• Republican lawmakers' first tax-cut challenge will be to seek agreement on the deficit number (WSJ)

• Trump reportedly in a call warns Russia's Putin not to intensify war in Ukraine (AX)

• Beijing hopes to use 'proactive' tariff cuts and investment offers to draw US allies in Europe and Asia (WSJ)

• Taiwan considers big US defense purchases to show new Trump administration it is serious about protecting itself against China (FT)

ECONOMY

• US CPI preview - Inflation seen moving sideways October, highlighting uneven path complicating Fed's policy outlook (BBG)

• China's trade surplus on track to hit a fresh record this year, risking provocation with Trump when he returns next year (BBG)

• China October new loans of 500bn yuan misses consensus and down from 1.59tn yuan in September (MS)

• Japan's service-sector sentiment worsened and bankruptcy cases rose in October (RT)

ASX TODAY

• Aurizon increases buyback to $250m from $150m, the company has brought back $133m of the original buyback so far (AZJ)

• Brambles to divest CHEP India business to LEAP India for enterprise value of ~$85m, cash proceeds of ~$75m will be used to reduce debt (BXB)

• OFX Group reports 1H25 NPAT for $13.5m vs. $17m a year ago, expects to deliver a strong 2H25 driven by improving market conditions and client activity (OFX)

• Paladin Energy revises FY25 production guidance to 3.0-3.6Mlb vs. prior 4.0-4.5Mlb and withdraws all other guidance in relation to FY25 (PDN)

• South32 to acquire 19.9% stake in American Eagle Gold for $22m

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Gold – The SPDR Gold Shares ETF saw an outflow of over US$1bn, the largest weekly fund outflow since July 2022. We're seeing Trump's victory prompt investors to exit their position to book profits amid a soaring US dollar, bond yields and risk assets. Gold prices tumbled 2.3% overnight, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF down 5.8% to a two month low. This should place considerable weakness on local gold names

• Commodities – Commodity-related ETFs continued to dwindle overnight after China's stimulus efforts last Friday (after market close) underwhelmed. The two key losers include Nickel (-2.3%) and Copper (-1.8%)

BROKER MOVES

• Endeavour Group downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target cut to $5 from $6 (JARD)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Tue 12 Nov: GQG Partners (GQG) – 1.32%, National Australia Bank (NAB) – 2.13%, Global Data Centre Group (GDC) – 28.64%

• Wed 13 Nov: ANZ Group (ANZ) – 2.58%

• Thu 14 Nov: Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – 0.44%

• Fri 15 Nov: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: None

• Listing: Life360 (360), James Hardie (JXH), OFX Group (OFX)

• Earnings: Coles (COL), L1 Long Short Fund (LSF), Nanosonics (NAN)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 9:30 am: Australia Consumer Confidence (Nov)

• 10:30 am: Australia Business Confidence (Oct)

• 5:00 pm: UK Unemployment Rate (Sep)