Evening Wrap: ASX 200 sags as reality sets in – no more rate cuts... Resources hit on lower iron ore, lithium and uranium

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 81.1 points lower, down 0.91%.

The market sagged under the general acceptance now that the RBA won't be cutting interest rates any further. All but the Healthcare sector was down, with Resources and Utilities hit the hardest. Commodity prices are generally lower, with iron ore, lithium, and uranium prices bearing the brunt of investor selling. On the topic of uranium, local uranium stocks were hit particularly hard today.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 81.1 points lower at 8,813.7, 0.92% from its session high and just 0.13% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 61 to 219.

Fund flows: Just one of those days

Most days here we discuss winners that usually come at the expense of losers... how funds are playing their flavour of the week / month / year favourites at the expense of others. Today... it was less about who was the favourite, and more about how much you lost... Just look at that market breadth – 61 to 219.

And to be fair, we shouldn't be very surprised by this result, because as noted here in Monday's Evening Wrap – the market breadth was nearly as lousy yesterday – and that was despite the ASX 200's 12 point gain and intraday upward trend.

Something was rotten in the state of Denmark!

Resources (XJR) (-1.7%) and Utilities (XUJ) (-2.8%) were hardest hit. The former likely on softer commodity prices in Asia today (iron ore down, copper futures down, lithium down >5%). Utilities stocks likely didn't like the federal government's announcement it would will be implementing a scheme whereby customers may be able to access three hours of free electricity in the middle of the day.

Health Care (XHJ) (+0.04%) was the only sector to escape a loss, but even this is deceptive, because CSL's (CSL) (+0.9%) gain balanced out losses in Ramsay Health Care (RHC) (-0.7%), Sonic Healthcare (SHL) (-0.7%), Cochlear (COH) (-1.1%), and Pro Medicus (PME) (-1.3%).

Financials (XFJ) (-0.4%) was next best / least worst as it tends to get belted less on risk-off days like these (and if Resources are down... then...)

Stock Specific: A-shapes everywhere

A shaped charts are those that rise very quickly and fall just as fast. They're the hardest for trend traders to trade (well, not so much on the way up, more getting strong signals to exit before too much damage is done!). It's been a tricky couple of weeks in this regard as precious metals, base metals, and critical minerals stocks continue to back out their stellar gains from September and early October.

Today it was the ASX uranium sectors turn. The uranium price fell sharply overnight on the back of very strong third-quarter 2025 operational results from the world's largest uranium producer Kazatomprom. This dragged the prices of local uranium stocks with it today, as can be seen in the table above.

This slide comes after these same stocks rallied sharply last week on the back of news the US government would be investing billions more into nuclear energy production. It's a tricky little period for investors to navigate, with what feels like proverbial hand grenades going off everywhere! 💥

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

Hands up if today's performance by the Old Tin Pot surprised you.

Nope, didn't think so!

Today's clear supply-side showing with its black body and close near low is unfortunately par for the course as far as the short term price action is concerned.

It also confirms the short term trend ribbon (neutral) as a zone of dynamic supply – it's official we're in a short term downtrend:

• Price action = falling peaks and falling troughs = supply reinforcement and demand removal = ⚠️

• Short term trend ribbon = price is below ribbon, ribbon falling, neutralised, acting as a zone of dynamic supply = ⚠️

• Candles = predominantly supply-side in nature (i.e., black bodied and or upward pointing shadows)

The only thing we're missing is a close below the 8809-43 demand zone. To be fair though, 8731-38 is likely the "main game" in terms of a go-no-go zone of demand for this phase of the XJO's bull market – as in close below it and we're neutral at best...

It's been a dismal and disappointing performance from the Aussie market since the 9116 all time high set just two weeks ago today.

View: I'm pretty glad I pulled back to 2/3RP (2/3 Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 67%). The big question is when I go to 1/2RP – the next level down. On a close below 8809 or below 8731? Hmmm... what do you think!? 🫵

Key levels: 8809-43 is the next key level that the price ideally should not cross (a likely move to 1/2RP on a close below there); but ultimately, 8731 remains the critical go-no-go zone for the XJO bull market = ⚠️. A close above the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8933-8952) would help confirm the demand-side remains active in the system.

Economy

Today

• AUS RBA Cash Rate & Monetary Policy Statement

  • Cash rate decision: No change at 3.60% as expected

  • RBA Governor Michelle Bullock: "we didn't go up as high as many other countries... We therefore possibly had less room to come down and the most recent inflation data just reminds us that we need to be data-driven, we need to look at what that might imply for the forecasts."

Later this week

Wednesday

• USA tentative due to US government shutdown – JOLTS Job Openings

Thursday

• 02:00 USA October ISM Services PMI (50..8 forecast vs 50.0 previous)

Friday

• No major economic announcements expected this day

Saturday

• USA tentative due to US government shutdown – Core PCE Price Index m/m

• USA tentative due to US government shutdown – Non-Farm Employment Change

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +13.0% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.4% Chrysos Corp. (C79) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.6% Droneshield (DRO) - Performance Options Update and 03-Oct $25.3 million Latin American contract.

• +8.0% Core Lithium (CXO) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.6% Navigator Global Investments (NGI) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.4% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.6% Ricegrowers Class B-Voting (SGLLV) - Rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -22.1% Nova Minerals (NVA) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -13.0% G8 Education (GEM) - FY25 Trading Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -10.6% Novonix (NVX) - Notice of Termination of Offtake Agreement.

• -10.5% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -10.0% Trigg Minerals (TMG) - No news.

• -8.3% Ioneer (INR) - No news, benchmark lithium futures price down over 5% in China today….

Broker Moves

Life360 Inc (360)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $47.00

29Metals (29M)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.35

4DMedical (4DX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.25 from $1.05

Alcoa Corporation (AAI)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $66.00

AMP (AMP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.92 from $1.80

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.10

ASX (ASX)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $65.40 from $69.50

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.40

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $45.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $44.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $48.00

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $2.05

Bathurst Resources (BRL)

• Downgraded to speculative buy from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.88

BlueScope Steel (BSL)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $24.00

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $144.80

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.90

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $19.25

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $13.00

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.36

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $14.75

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.30 from $11.00

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $225.00 from $230.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $248.00

Centaurus Metals (CTM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.55

Core Lithium (CXO)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.12

Delta Lithium (DLI)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.17

Dyno Nobel (DNL)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.50

DPM Metals Inc. (DPM)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $47.00

DroneShield (DRO)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.30

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.40 from $4.20

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.85

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.92 from $4.18

Emerald Resources NL (EMR)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.30

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $10.20

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.50

FireFly Metals (FFM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.65

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $21.50

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.50

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $21.20

G8 Education (GEM)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.70

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $12.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.50

Global Lithium Resources (GL1)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.20

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $5.30

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.00

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $41.50

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.10

Integral Diagnostics (IDX)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.30

IVE Group (IGL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.25 from $3.10

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $5.50

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $7.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.10

ioneer (INR)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.35 from $0.30

IPH (IPH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.55

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $176.00

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.75

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.65

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $17.00

Meteoric Resources NL (MEI)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.45

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $52.00

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $42.50

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $150.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $153.00

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.80

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.70

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.85

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $26.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $30.00

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.35

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.40

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.80 from $11.34

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $14.10

Predictive Discovery (PDI)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.60

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $7.40

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.35

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00

PMET Resources Inc (PMT)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.60 from $0.65

Pepper Money (PPM)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.40

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.60

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $23.50 from $25.00

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $129.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $124.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $129.50

ResMed Inc. (RMD)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $49.20 from $48.60

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.90

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at underweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80

Resolute Mining (RSG)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.10

South32 (S32)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $4.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.20

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.74

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $16.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.50

Stanmore Resources (SMR)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $2.70

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.60

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.85

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.00

Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.34

West African Resources (WAF)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.00

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $38.50 from $37.75

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $34.40 from $34.00

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $38.37 from $37.63

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $34.08 from $34.00

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $36.00 from $30.80

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.00 from $31.50

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $34.10 from $32.20

• Retained at sell at Morgans; Price Target: $31.30 from $30.77

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $31.00 from $30.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $40.00 from $38.00

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.30

Wagners Holding Company (WGN)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $3.10 from $2.90

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.40

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $7.30

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00

Scans