Evening Wrap: ASX 200 relinquishes highs despite rising gold, tech stocks, as major iron ore and lithium stocks plunge

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 27.0 points lower, down 0.31%.

Just couldn't quite bottle it...and quite a shame, too! 👎

That's the sentiment probably being felt by many Aussie investors today as the ASX 200 relinquished yesterday's new highs with barely a whimper.

Rising Middle East tensions (and crude oil prices), coupled with sinking risk appetites, put a stop to our record breaking ways.

Resources stocks, particularly those engaged in iron ore, lithium, and base metals production, were hit the hardest, but those aimed at producing shinier metals, like gold and silver, prospered.

Elsewhere, solid gains in technology shares weren't enough to balance out modest losses across the big-hitting (in terms of index points) big banks.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Brent Crude Oil in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 27.0 points lower at 8,565.1, 0.62% from its session high and smack–bang on its session low. But, despite the lack-lustre finish for the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers still managed beat decliners by a slim 143 to 135.

Today's blue-chip winners:

Today's blue-chip losers:

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Demand-side control, stay the course 🧐 (click here for full size image)

Not a great candle on Wednesday. Good start…found excess supply…demand-side preferred not to get in the way…black-bodied candle and low session close the result.

It’s also “the where” that bothers me – close to that historical major supply zone capped by the 20205 all-time high.

I’m not making any major changes here – one candle, particularly that candle – just doesn’t warrant it. But, at the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another like it tonight.

Major supply zones are rarely cracked in one go. It can take several attempts over several weeks to dislodge the supply there. A period of consolidation below the supply zone, maintaining roughly above 19415 / short term uptrend ribbon would be healthy.

Of course, it would be healthier to just blast straight through it – and whilst that remains a possibility given prevailing trends and price action – I’m starting to think it’s less likely than “doing some time here”.

Let’s see how we’re placed by tomorrow’s candle, and as suggested above – I’m not making any changes to my previous position of: Demand-side control, stay the course.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

You know that feeling you get...🤢 (click here for full size image)

You know that feeling you get when you go over the top of the highest point of the roller coaster. It’s a bit exciting and a bit sickening.

That’s kinda the feeling I’ve got now. Maybe just without the exciting part…🤢

We can’t do it again. Surely not!? 🤷

And yet, yesterday’s long upward pointing shadow – failing to capitalise on a new all-time high, and todays follow through (another upward pointing shadow, black body and close smack-bang on the low) – screams of the supply-side coming in to take control.

As well as a demand-side powerless or simply unwilling to stop them. The Aussie market and new highs just don’t go well together.

Still, as a trend follower, there is always going to be a lag between me thinking something is up and doing something about it. It looks like a top. It might turn out to be the top…but it’s not a significant enough signal in terms of size and volume to warrant doing anything about it just yet.

I need further confirmation. As much as that might annoy a few of you – “Hey Carl, I pay you the big bucks to call the exact top and exact bottom pal!” 😡.

Sorry to disappoint you lot, but the crystal ball is on the fritz! 🔮

Two bitterly annoying / disappointing candles – check. Against the prevailing backdrop of strong demand-side control. Equals I must play it by the numbers / odds. Equals no change to my running thesis of the demand-side remains in control, and therefore I am happy to stay the course here.

Brent Crude Oil Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE

Has anything really changed for Brent? 🤔 (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered Brent crude oil was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 30 Apr.

There’s a reason why it’s been so long between updates…In that update, and in several prior, we noted: “as we have done so many times before – ultimately Brent was merely oscillating within a very large trading range between 61.49-83.47 (values have changed due to contract rollovers – but relative to the last price are identical).”

This week’s gyrations in Middle-East tensions have put it on my radar today…has anything really changed? 🤔

Yes and no.

“Yes”, as in the double down short and long term trends of that last update have transitioned to double-neutral. Granted, the short term trend is about to switch to up.

I also note Wednesday’s candle closed above the long term trend ribbon – and was also a handy demand-side showing. The price action is rising peaks and rising troughs. So, let’s conclude Brent now looks “warm-ish”!

And “No”, as in Brent remains stuck in a massive trading range, the bottom of it which blew out a little in April after Trump’s Liberation Day speech. I make it now between 56.89 and 82.90.

Well before we get to 82.90, there’s a very credible band of supply to contend with at 73.96-74.82.

I remain ambivalent here. Brent looks better than it has for some time but still lacks the clear short and long term demand-side control indications I require to feel there’s something special going on here.

73.96-74.82 will likely cap. An emphatic close above there would definitely make me change my tune. 67.14 is demand, a close below there and we’re likely slipping back into the previous long term downtrend again.

There are some major risk events on the horizon for this market, so an open mind and an on one’s toes posture is warranted!

Economy

Today

• AUS MI Inflation Expectations: +5.0% p.a. vs +4.1% p.a. previous

Later this week

Thursday

• 22:30 USA Core Producer Price Index (PPI) May (+0.3% m/m vs -0.4% m/m and +2.8% p.a. in April)

Friday

• 03:01 USA 30-year Bond Auction (US$22 billion forecast for auction, May's high yield 4.82% p.a. and 2.3x bid-cover ratio)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment June (52.5 forecast vs 52.2 in May)

• 00:00 USA Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations June (+6.6% p.a. previous)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +26.6% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, today's move is consistent with recent volatility.

• +23.2% Clover Corporation (CLV) – Clover Earnings Upgrade.

• +20.0% Talga Group (TLG) – Talga secures key mine permit.

• +19.2% Bioxyne (BXN) – FY25 Revenue Guidance Upgrade, rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈

• +14.6% Horizon Minerals (HRZ) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +10.7% Predictive Discovery (PDI) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +9.4% Meeka Metals (MEK) – Process Plant Commissioning Underway, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.1% Monash IVF Group (MVF) – Resignation of CEO & Managing Director.

• +8.8% St Barbara (SBM) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.0% Silver Mines (SVL) – US Silver-Gold Acquisitions Transform Exploration Portfolio, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.5% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.1% Bubs Australia (BUB) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.3% Larvotto Resources (LRV) – High-grade Results from Eleanora-Garibaldi Drilling, general strength across the broader Gold sector today.

• +6.2% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.0% Genesis Minerals (GMD) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.0% Silex Systems (SLX) – No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +5.3% Native Mineral Resources (NMR) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +5.2% Catalyst Metals (CYL) – No news, general strength across the broader Gold sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -31.2% Cettire (CTT) – Trading Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.8% Mineral Resources (MIN) – No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.2% Champion Iron (CIA) – No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.0% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, general weakness across the broader Resources sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.6% Immutep (IMM) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.3% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) – Extension of conditional debt commitment letter, general weakness across the broader Real Estate sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -4.9% Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Life360 (360)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $34.04

Adrad (AHL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.050

Atlas Arteria (ALX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.70

Austin Engineering (ANG)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.600 from $0.700

ANZ Group (ANZ)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.50

Bega Cheese (BGA)

• Initiated at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.40

Beacon Lighting Group (BLX)

• Downgraded to neutral from positive at E&P; Price Target: $3.56

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Downgraded to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.40

Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT)

• Retained at speculative buy at E&P; Price Target: $0.500

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $1.360 from $1.550

Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.00

Breville Group (BRG)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $40.14

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $100.00

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.20 from $9.80

Cochlear (COH)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $312.00

Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.190 from $0.230

Cettire (CTT)

• Retained at underperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.500

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure/Notes (DBI)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $4.35

Dicker Data (DDR)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $11.90

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $20.66

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.00

GQG Partners (GQG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.90

Harvey Norman (HVN)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $6.00

Integral Diagnostics (IDX)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $2.94

IVE Group (IGL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.80

Judo Capital (JDO)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $2.25

Johns Lyng Group (JLG)

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.20 from $2.70

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $30.50

National Storage Reit (NSR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.70

OFX Group (OFX)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $1.630

OOH!Media (OML)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $1.800

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.40

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.700

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.25 from $5.00

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.50

Qualitas (QAL)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $4.00

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.10 from $9.65

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $12.00 from $11.50

• Upgraded to hold from trim at Morgans; Price Target: $10.80 from $9.40

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $11.40 from $10.70

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $9.75 from $10.50

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.30 from $9.30

Radiopharm Theranostics (RAD)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.050

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $275.00

Regal Partners (RPL)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $5.90

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $7.30

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80

Seek (SEK)

• Initiated at buy at Citi; Price Target: $28.50

Smart Parking (SPZ)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $1.260

Service Stream (SSM)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.00

Universal Store (UNI)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $9.12

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.40

Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $27.75

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $23.90 from $26.80

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $8.07

Wagners Holding Company (WGN)

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.00

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.40

Zip Co. (ZIP)

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $4.30

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.20

Scans