ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 12th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, June 12. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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Market struggles to hold record levels

[4:40 pm] Signing off – The S&P/ASX 200 finished 0.31% lower despite climbing 0.30% in early trade, with weakness largely attributed to Materials (-1.0%), Financials (-0.52%) and Discretionary (-0.47%). Breadth was mixed, with a relatively even split of ASX 200 stocks closing higher and lower.

Iron ore miners tumbled on weaker iron ore prices, notably Fortescue (-3.3%), BHP (-1.8%) and Rio Tinto (-1.6%).

The market continues to show signs of fatigue at record levels, which is hardly surprising given the sharp V-shaped recovery we've witnessed. A period of weakness following such rapid gains is perfectly normal and even healthy. Ideally, we'd see a shallow pullback followed by consolidation as the market digests recent gains. However, several looming catalysts could disrupt this orderly process (US-China, Middle East tensions, upcoming tariff-impacted economic data etc.)

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Foreign Investment Review Board not opposed to MIXI acquiring PointsBet

[3:55 pm] PointsBet has received FIRB approval for MIXI to acquire up to a 100% interest in the company. The scheme remains subject to other conditions including the Ontario Approval.

MIXI is seeking to acquire PointsBet at $1.20 per share (3-Jun), up from its initial offer of $1.06 per share.

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Commodity price check-in

[3:00 pm] Platinum prices continued to trend higher after rallying 4.3% overnight (and up 30% since mid-May). This is driving some strong gains for names like Zimplats. Gold is recovering from a pullback last week, largely driven by the cooler-than-expected US inflation print and US-Middle East escalation. While oil prices are slightly lower after a ~6% rally overnight.

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Energy stocks broadly higher as oil prices surge

[1:30 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index is up 1.55%, trading at the best levels since March 4.

Brent crude rallied 6.2% overnight to US$70.7 a barrel, marking its best one-day session since March 2022. Prices have cooled around 1.8% in the current session, down to US$69.4 a barrel. This follows a renewed ramp-up in Middle East tensions with the US.

Stocks leading to the upside include Karoon Energy (+4.5%), Horizon Oil (+4.4%), Beach Energy (+4.2%) and Woodside (+1.8%).

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Morgan Stanley's take on Pilbara Minerals' resource upgrade

[12:30 pm] Pilbara Minerals upgraded its Pilgangoora Mineral Resource on Wednesday, and Morgan Stanley says this could have significant implications for the company's valuation.

The key highlights from the resource upgrade include:

• Increased total Measured, Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource by 9.6% to 446Mt at 1.28% lithium oxide (Li20), 122ppm tantalum pentoxide (Ta2O5) and 0.59% iron oxide (Fe2O3)

• Contained lithium oxide in the total Measured, Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource up 23% due to a 10% increase in tonnage and 12% improvement in grade

Morgan Stanley notes the total measured and indicated resource was 13% above their grade expectations and 12% above their total contained lithium estimates.

"We think this could be significantly positive for our NPV >10% if resources converted to reserves in line with resources. These have not yet been released," the analysts said in a note on Thursday, adding that "We expect this to have a positive impact on op costs (through higher grade) and mine life (increased tonnes)."

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Small caps making moves

[11:30 am] Here are the best and worst small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) around noon.

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Top gainers and losers

[11:00 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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UBS lifts Zip and Qantas target prices

[10:50 am] UBS has tweaked its target price for the two stocks slightly higher after yesterday's announcements (Zip upgraded FY25 guidance, Qantas will exit its Jetstar Asia operations).

• Zip retained Buy, target up to $3.40 from $3.20. The upgrade largely reflects the analysts raising their FY25 cash EBTDA forecasts to $160m, in-line with the company guidance.

• Qantas retained Neutral, target up to $10.30 from $9.30. The Jetstar Asia exit has not changed the analysts FY25-26 earnings assumptions, still expect FY26 to see stable earnings and demand conditions.

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ASX tumbles, Cettire obliterated and Cochlear rallies back up to breakeven

[10:30 am] Three interesting movers at the open, two of which shouldn't come as a surprise given the data points from earlier.

ASX shares tumbled 3.3% after its Investor Forum briefing guided to FY26 total expense growth of 8-11% vs. Citi forecasts of approximately 6.7%.

Cettire shares nosedived 21.5% after the company reported year-to-date FY25 sales growth of 1.7% to $693.8 million. CEO Dean Mintz cited "continued softening of demand in Established Markets, particularly the US," as the primary driver of the lackluster performance. The company noted that reduced promotional activity signals a weak June quarter. Bell Potter’s FY25 net sales forecast of $783.5 million indicates Cettire is likely to fall significantly short of expectations. Additionally, the analysts projected adjusted EBITDA of $6.1 million contrasts sharply with Cettire’s year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of just $0.5 million.

Cochlear shares briefly opened 8.0% lower, currently breakeven. The company guided to FY25 underlying net profit of $390-400 million vs. prior guidance to the lower end of $410-430 million. This implies a downgrade of approximately 4.8% and around 3.6% short of Goldman Sachs estimates (as at Feb-25). Though the rally is likely supported by the release of new products, including the company's Nucleus Nexa System, the world's first and only smart cochlear impact system.

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Lynch Group guides to solid FY25 growth

[9:55 am] Flower grower and wholesaler Lynch Group CEO Hugh Toll says the second half performance in Australia and China has been "very pleasing" and guided to mid-single digit revenue growth for FY25. Here are the key takeaways from the company's trading update:

• Mother’s Day event in May 2025 delivered significant revenue growth and high in-store sell-through rates.

• Record volumes handled by national production facilities, showcasing operational efficiency.

• Second-half forecast impacted by ~$0.8 million EBITDA loss due to stock waste and lost sales from customer store closures during Cyclone Alfred in March 2025.

• China revenue up 16% year-to-date to May 2025 compared to FY24, fueled by higher pricing for rose and tulip products and concentrated demand events from January to May.

• Group revenue growth projected at approximately 7%, EBITDA to be between $42-43m, excluding costs from Australian farm closure and SAP upgrade

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Lynch Group (LYL)

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Cettire flags softening demand trends, weak year-to-date sales update

[9:45 am] Cettire provided an unaudited trading update for the year-to-date period ending 31 May 2025. Here are the key highlights:

• Sales revenue up 1.7% to $693.8m

• Continued challenges in global luxury market due to US tariffs

• Moderation in promotional activity pointing to soft June quarter revenue performance

• YTD FY25 margin of ~16%

• YTD FY25 adjusted EBITDA of $0.5m, inclusive of $2m in realised foreign exchange losses during April-May

• Net cash balance of $45 million as at 31 May vs. $76m at 31 March

“The operating environment within the global personal luxury goods market since Cettire’s Q3 FY25 trading update has remained volatile, with a continued softening of demand in the Company’s Established Markets, notably in the US," said CEO Dean Mintz.

To add some perspective, Bell Potter (as at 23 April) forecast FY25 net sales of $783.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $6.1 million.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Cettire (CTT)

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ASX strategy and guidance update

[9:30 am] The market operator provided an FY25-28 expense and capex guidance update as part of its Investor Forum briefing. Here are the key numbers and how they measure against Citi's forecasts (as at 3-Jun).

• FY26 total expense growth of 8-11% vs. Citi expectations of FY25 estimates of $457m and FY26 of $488m (or a 6.7% year-on-year increase)

• Reiterated FY25 capex guidance of $170-180m

• Narrowed FY26 capex to $170-180m vs. prior $160-180m

• Maintained FY27 capex between $160-180m

• Intention to maintain dividend payout ratio between 80-90% vs. Citi estimates of 83-80% payout ratios over FY25-27

• Targeting EBITDA margin uplift and underlying ROE of 13-14.5% over the medium term

Overall, the FY26 expense guidance came in slightly above expectations, while capex guidance saw some minor adjustments.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: ASX (ASX)

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The market's newest gold producer, Meeka Metals

[9:20 am] Meeka Metals says ore is being fed into its processing plant and commissioning is underway at the Murchison Gold Project. The company expects its first gold pour this month, with first gold sales and cash flow in early June 2025.

Meeka shares are up 107% year-to-date, supported by strong operational momentum and key milestones including high-grade drill results, the start of open pit mining, and the expansion of its processing plant.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Meeka Metals (MEK)

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Clover Corp upgrades FY25 guidance

[9:15 am] Nutritional ingredients supplier Clover Corporation says its FY25 net profit after tax is expected to "outperform market consensus ($5.5m) by approximately 20%."

"Key performance drivers are attributed to improved gross margins from higher value product mix, continued strong manufacturing performance at Melody Dairies, Ecuador oil now being delivered regularly for refining at Altona and beneficial exchange rates on US and Euro invoiced customers," the company said in a statement.

This implies FY25 net profit after tax of approximately $6.6 million. The company currently has a market cap of $65 million and $15.3 million cash as at 31 January, 2025.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Clover Corp (CLV)

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Talga receives green light for Sweden project

[9:10 am] The Swedish Government dismissed all appeals against Talga's Nunasvaara South Exploitation Concession, finalising the permit process.

Sweden’s Minister Ebba Busch highlighted the project’s role in sustainable mining and the green transition, reinforcing Sweden’s position in global mineral politics.

All major permits for the Nunasvaara South mine and the Luleå anode refinery are now in place, enabling full project advancement. The mine, part of Europe’s largest and highest-grade JORC-classified natural graphite resource, is integrated with a refinery producing 19,500 tonnes of sustainable Li-ion battery anode annually for electric vehicles, battery storage, and defense markets.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Talga Group (TLG)

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Cochlear cuts FY25 guidance

[9:00 am] Cochlear downgraded its FY25 guidance following " slower-than-expected sales growth over the last few months." This is not a good look considering the stock tumbled on its last two earnings reports (FY24 and 1H25), both of which missed market expectations.

The new FY25 guidance includes:

• FY25 underlying net profit of $390-400m vs. prior guidance to the lower end of $410-430m.

  • This marks a downgrade of approximately 4.8% (assuming midpoint of new guidance vs. $415m of prior guidance)

  • After Cochlear's 1H25 result in February, Goldman Sachs forecast FY25 NPAT of $410, suggesting the new guidance is a ~3.6% miss

• Expectations of a single digit decline in Services revenue for FY25 after two strong years of growth.

• Cochlear implant units still expected to increase around 10% for FY25, with growth weighted towards emerging markets.

• Growth in the higher value developed markets has been impacted by slower-than-expected market growth and a small loss of market share in a few countries.

This should drive downward pressure on the stock in today's session, and result in consensus downgrades to earnings forecasts and target prices.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Cochlear (COH)

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Oil prices spike on US-Middle East tensions

[8:45 am] Brent crude rallied 6.2% overnight to US$70.7 a barrel, marking its best one-day session since March 2022. This follows a renewed ramp-up in Middle East tensions with the US:

• The US has ordered staff reductions at its Baghdad embassy and authorized military families to leave the Middle East region due to escalating tensions, following Iran's threats to attack US bases if nuclear negotiations fail.

• Iran's Defense Minister warned that if nuclear talks collapse and conflict occurs, Iran will target all US military bases in host countries without hesitation, while President Trump expressed growing doubts about reaching a nuclear deal.

• Iran is preparing a new proposal for the sixth round of nuclear talks scheduled for Sunday in Muscat, Oman, suggesting they may consider a temporary framework deal while working on complex technical details.

• Both the US and Israel have indicated they could resort to military strikes against Iran if diplomatic efforts fail, with Israel viewing a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat.

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US May inflation comes in cooler-than-expected

[8:40 am] US inflation data continues to trend in the right direction, with numbers coming out cooler-than-expected for a fourth straight month. Here are the key takeaways:

• May core inflation up 0.13% month-on-month vs. 0.3% consensus, decelerating from 0.24% in April and the lowest since March

• Annualised core inflation of 2.79% vs. 2.9% consensus, continues to hold a narrow 2.7% range in the last two months but not far three year lows

• Headline inflation up 0.08% month-on-month vs. 0.2% consensus

• Annualised headline inflation of 2.35% vs. 2.5% consensus, slightly above 2.31% in the prior month

What's the significance of the data?

• Analysts note that companies have largely absorbed tariff costs rather than passing them directly to consumers through higher prices

• Despite overall subdued inflation, some import-heavy categories showed notable price increases, including toys (largest rise since 2023) and major appliances (biggest gain in nearly five years), suggesting selective tariff pass-through is occurring, according to Bloomberg

• After the print, market's now forecast near 50 bps of Fed rate cuts by year-end

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What's driving stocks?

[8:35 am] Major US benchmarks gave up early gains and finish broadly lower, slightly off worst levels. Plenty of trade, geopolitical and economic headlines driving market volatility.

• Renewed escalation in Middle East tensions, with US preparing partial evacuations of certain embassies after Iran threatened to attack US bases if nuclear negotiations fail

• Middle East tensions sent oil prices soaring, with Brent crude up 6.2% to US$70.7/lb

• US-China agreed on a framework, both sides agreed to dial back export restrictions (this was announced on Wednesday morning)

• US inflation printed cooler-than-expected, easing tariff concerns

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are pointing towards a 17 pt gain (+0.19%) after a relatively mixed lead from Wall Street. The market is showing signs of fatigue and poor breadth despite eking out a second consecutive all-time high on Wednesday.

Yesterday, the market closed 0.06% higher, down from session highs of 0.60% and struggling to close above the key 8,600 level. In addition, just over half (101) of ASX 200 constituents finished the session lower or breakeven.

Let's see if the market can muster up a stronger session today.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.