Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rebounds 105 points as PLS, DYL, and ILU lead scramble into lithium, uranium, and rare earths stocks

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 104.8 points higher, up 1.24%.

A strong rebound in Aussie stocks today, as the phrases “oversold” and “bargain hunting” were bandied around all too often in the financial media (not here!).

What ever you call it (how about D > S = P⬆️!?) gainers beat losers by nearly 10 to 1 in the ASX 300. All but one of the major ASX sectors was higher (only Utilities missed out, falling 1.3%), with Gold (+2.7%), Information Technology (+2.4%), and Resources (+2.1%) enjoying the greatest improvement.

For the mining stocks enthusiasts out there, you’ll be pleased to note that shares of uranium, lithium, and several critical minerals companies were in high demand (e.g., Deep Yellow (DYL) (+6.6%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+5.3%), and Iluka Resources (ILU) (+6.7%)).

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 104.8 points higher at 8,552.7, 1.2% from its session low and just 0.14% from its high/low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by an emphatic 221 to 30.

Fund flows: Still the one ✅

Sure, the tech sector bounced today, but the key takeaway from today's rally for me is that the Resources sector was strong again. For those who follow my ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinars, you'll be aware of my Relative Strength Comparative (RSC) indicator. Not to be confused with the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) – which has zero usefulness as a technical indicator – the RSC helps illustrate the relative performance of one security against another.

I use the RSC to compare stocks and sectors to a benchmark, in our case, the ASX 200. If the stock/sector is outperforming the ASX 200, my RSC indicator will be rising, and the opposite is true for underperformance. Readings above/below zero indicate sustained outperformance/underperformance over the last 3-months (i.e., 63 candles on a daily chart hence "RSC-63").

S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index with "RSC-63" (click here for full size image)

As with any technical indicator, the RSC only tells us what has happened and never what will be. So, understand that the excellent RSC showing for the XJR in the chart above could change tomorrow. For now, though, it demonstrates to me that the big fund managers are still rotating into the sector. The chart of the Tech sector is shown below for your comparison – what do you notice? 🤔

S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Sector Index with "RSC-63" (click here for full size image)

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

We must give a little round of applause to the XJO (a.k.a. the Old Tin Pot) today! 👏

It was a solid demand-side showing, from open to close, and at no point did the supply-side look like they had any great desire or power to interfere.

So, the price action was decent ✅.

The volume was slightly below average – a fairly regular day in that regard – also suggesting that the demand in the system didn’t encounter major supply-side resistance. Benign.

Speaking of potential supply-side resistance, I note that the long term trend ribbon – now neutralised and now potentially a zone of dynamic supply – also didn’t pose any problems.

Again, decent.

But not spectacular!

As in, compare today's candle to Tuesday’s wipe out, or Friday’s tumble before that.

Add in the fact that:

• The short term trend is unequivocally down

• The price action is sweeping down phases into falling troughs vs shallow rallies into falling peaks

• There’s a predominance of supply-side candles (i.e., black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows)

And one might assume there’s still a long way to go in terms of moving back to even just a “balance between demand and supply” here.

Nope, the supply-side is still in control of the Old Tin Pot's price as far as I'm concerned!

I’d like to see at least a couple more candles like today (i.e., long white-bodied and or long downward pointing shadows, a close back above the long term trend ribbon, and potentially even a higher trough formed – before I’d contemplate calling “equilibrium”… let alone before calling “demand-side control”.

View

Today's price action is a decent step in the right direction – but more needs to be done to confirm the demand-side has grappled back control of the XJO's price. Therefore, I remain comfortable at 1/3RP in my Risk Bucket 🪣 for now. (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (i.e., Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%).

Key levels

8421 is the closest point of demand. The long term trend ribbon is the closest zone of supply (presently 8543-8685). The short term downtrend ribbon is, however, the critical zone of supply (presently 8745-8795). In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, the XJO must close back above this point to demonstrate the demand-side is moving back into control.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 00:30 USA October Non-Farm Payrolls

• 02:00 USA October Existing Home Sales (4.11 million forecast vs 4.06 million in September)

• 09:00 AUS November Flash Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing: vs 49.7 in October

  • Services: vs 52.5 in October

Saturday

• 01:45 USA November Flash Manufacturing & Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing: vs 52.5 in October

  • Services: vs 54.8 in October

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +20.9% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) – MYX Declaration of Unacceptable Circumstances and Orders.

• +18.2% Pmet Resources (PMT) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +10.9% Block (XYZ) – Form 8-K - Share Repurchase Authorization, general strength across the broader Information Technology sector today.

• +9.6% Liontown Resources (LTR) – Inaugural spodumene concentrate auction outcome and Becoming a substantial holder (Van Eck Associates +5.01%), general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +8.0% Nufarm (NUF) – Continued positive response to 19-Nov Nufarm FY25 Results Investor Presentation.

• +6.8% Healius (HLS) – Change of Director's Interest Notice - Paul Anderson (P. Anderson on-market trade worth $47.8k), rise is consistent with prevailing short-term uptrend and long-term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +6.8% Iluka Resources (ILU) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +6.7% Charter Hall Group (CHC) – 5.5% earnings guidance upgrade for FY26 OEPS, general strength across the broader Real Estate sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing long-term uptrend 🔎📈

• +6.6% Deep Yellow (DYL) – 2025 AGM Corporate Presentation and Notice of Initial Substantial Holding from SOL (+11.8%), general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +6.5% Weebit Nano (WBT) – No news, bounced in the wake of the recent sharp selloff.

• +6.4% Netwealth Group (NWL) – Becoming a substantial holder (Pinnacle Investment Management Group +5.03%).

• +6.3% Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – 2025 AGM CEO Presentations and Proxy Summary.

• +6.0% Lifestyle Communities (LIC) – General strength across the broader Real Estate sector today.

• +6.0% HMC Capital (HMC) – Continued positive response to 19-Nov AGM 2025 Presentation, general strength across the broader Real Estate sector today.

• +6.0% Chalice Mining (CHN) – AGM Chair's Address and Managing Director's Presentation, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +5.3% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +5.0% Champion Iron (CIA) – Update - Dividend/Distribution, general strength across the broader Iron Ore sector today.

• +4.5% Mineral Resources (MIN) – 2025 Annual General Meeting presentation, general strength across the broader Iron Ore sector today.

• +4.2% Fortescue (FMG) – No news, general strength across the broader Iron Ore sector today.

Trading lower

• –4.9% GQG Partners (GQG) – No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• –4.2% Nuix (NXL) – Continued negative response to yesterday's AGM 2025 Chairman and Interim CEO Addresses, Trading Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• –4.1% Droneshield (DRO) – Response to ASX Aware Letter, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list today.

• –3.6% Gentrack Group (GTK) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• –3.2% Worley (WOR) – Chair's Address to Shareholders, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• –3.1% Catapult Sports (CAT) – Continued negative response to 18-Nov 1H FY26 Results Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend and long term trend is transitioning from up to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.45 from $9.29

Abacus Group (ABG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.41

Atturra (ATA)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.20

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.40

Catapult Sports (CAT)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.70

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.00 from $1.85

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.07

Core Lithium (CXO)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.27

Elevra Lithium (ELV)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $12.50

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $10.70 from $9.70

Galan Lithium (GLN)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.30

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.50 from $8.05

Helloworld Travel (HLO)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.75

HMC Capital (HMC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.90

ioneer (INR)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.50

James Hardie Industries Plc (JHX)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $32.00 from $31.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.50 from $37.50

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.55

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $29.75 from $27.60

Nufarm (NUF)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.55

• Upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $2.55 from $2.35

• Upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.22 from $2.07

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.77 from $2.55

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $3.20 from $2.60

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.10 from $2.75

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.40

PMET Resources Inc (PMT)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.65

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.65 from $6.15

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.00

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $8.30 from $7.25

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $15.55

Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $24.00

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $28.00

Tesoro Gold (TSO)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.32 from $0.27

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.00 from $0.90

Wesfarmers (WES)

• Upgraded to hold from lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $78.00 from $77.00

Webjet Group (WJL)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $1.05

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $1.10

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $0.81

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.15 from $1.37

Scans