ChartWatch Markets: NVIDIA earnings bonanza sparks stock market revival, as fading uranium price sounds warning for BOE, PDN

In today's edition of ChartWatch Markets, we'll be covering the technicals for:

• Nasdaq Composite

• NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

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Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

NVIDIA’s earning are out after Wednesday's close, and the stock is up 5% in after-hours trading. Comp futures are +455 points, or +1.8%, in response.

Source: MarketWatch

There’s a very good chance that tonight’s candle is a strong demand-side showing – if only at the open.

That’s a prognostication… and we know the rules about prognosticating here! 🙅

All we know is what we know: The last recorded trends, price action, candles and volume.

But as trend followers, we do respect news could occur at any time (it’s “new” information the market didn’t previously have to operate on) – that could change the demand-supply environment – and therefore those same trends, price action, candles and volume!

For now, I’ll keep it simple, because we very well could be dealing with a different set of technicals this time tomorrow.

Wednesday’s candle started strong for the demand-side, at one point – a very decently sized full-bodied white candle.

How did it end up? 🤔

With a bleeding great big upward pointing shadow = sell the rally = latent excess supply lurking in the system.

That shadow is consistent with the short term price action of falling peaks and falling troughs (i.e., supply reinforcement and demand removal), a falling short term trend ribbon (neutralised and seemingly acting as a zone of dynamic supply), and a predominance of supply-side candles.

Tomorrow’s candle is a long way off… but we can say that a close back above the short term tend ribbon (presently 22950-23035) is the minimum short term requirement to indicate the demand-side is moving back into control of the Comp’s price.

Looking down (still the most likely scenario based on the technicals we do have), and 22058-22185 is the critical zone of demand. A close below puts supply-side control of the Comp’s price beyond all reasonable doubt and would trigger another cut to the max-fill level of my Risk Bucket!

View

In yesterday's ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar I reduced the max-fill level of my Risk Bucket from 2/3RP to 1/2RP (2/3 vs 1/2 Risk Position corresponds to a 67% vs 50% allowable capital allocation limit for US stocks based on my personal risk management model).

Key levels

The next critical zone of demand is 22058-185 – below it, the short term trend is unequivocally down and the long term uptrend is likely under significant pressure = ⚠️ The short term trend ribbon (presently 22950-23035) is the nearest critical zone of supply – the Comp must close above this zone with a strong demand-side candle to confirm the demand-side is moving back into control of the Comp's price.

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ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar Replay 📺

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NVIDIA (NVDA)

Analysis

A quick catch up on NVIDIA's chart:

(consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs consistent with supply-side control = ❌)

• ST / LT Trends ↔️/⬆️; the short term trend ribbon has neutralised, is falling, and it has failed as a zone of dynamic excess demand ❌ the long term uptrend ribbon appears to be acting as a zone of dynamic excess demand ✅

• Price action: falling peaks and falling troughs with decent separation between the peaks (i.e., decent supply reinforcement) vs trading near to the last trough (i.e., demand holding for now) ❌

• Candles: Arguably skewed towards supply-side predominance since the 29-Oct 212.19 peak ❌

❌✅❌❌

It could open +195 bucks tonight, setting 176.76-178.91 as "the" critical zone of demand. It's not how NVIDIA opens that matters, it's all about the close.

If we see a candle with a long upward pointing shadow, particularly as it will likely be accompanied by substantially above average volume, would be strong signal of a sell the rally mentality among the dominant market participants, and serve as a strong indicator of supply-side control.

Alternatively, a close near the high of the session would indicate the supply-side has backed away, preferring now to HOFU (Hold Out For Upside). It would also indicate strong and sustained excess demand into the close and renewed demand-side motivation.

In many ways, in 2025 it's been a case of: As NVIDIA goes, the Comp goes... So tonight is shaping up as one of the most important trading sessions of the year!

View

For now, and as per the last NVIDIA update on 14-Oct, my model is =R here (i.e., maintain existing risk).

Key levels

I still view a close below the 7-Nov 178.91 point of demand as the next -R event.

Uranium Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Analysis

The uranium price has become increasingly supply-side dominated since our last update on 7-Nov:

(consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs consistent with supply-side control = ❌)

• ST / LT Trends ⬇️/⬆️; the short term trend ribbon has durned down and the formation of the past point of supply at 78.40 indicates it is now acting as a zone of dynamic excess supply ❌ the long term uptrend ribbon appears to be acting as a zone of dynamic excess demand ✅

• Price action: falling peaks and falling troughs with decent separation between the peaks of 78.40 and 82.25 (i.e., decent supply reinforcement) vs trading near to the zone of demand at 75.50-75.75 (i.e., demand holding for now) ❌

• Candles: No candles for uranium futures as we get a closing price only! 😢

❌✅❌

The emojis suggest a neutral bias here at best, but clearly, that 75.50-75.75 demand zone is beginning to look uncomfortably close... A close below it, and the present uranium bull market is going to be neutralised (at best!) ⚠️🚨

View

In the last update, my technical model moved to =R from +R (i.e., maintain existing risk from previous add risk). I see no reason to change that stance now, however, on a close below 75.50, my model would move to ZRP (Zero Risk Position) / -R (i.e., post-ZRP, this equates to a short bias).

Key levels

75.50-75.75 is the closest point of demand, a close below here will nullify the short term uptrend = ⚠️ 78.40 is the closest point of supply – the uranium price must close above this point with a strong demand-side candle to confirm the demand-side is moving back into control of the price .