ChartWatch Markets: NVDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon – where do their charts stand after the Nasdaq's wipeout?

In today's edition of ChartWatch Markets, we'll be covering the technicals for:

• Nasdaq Composite

• NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Apple (AAPL)

• Microsoft (MSFT)

• Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL)

• Amazon (AMZN)

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Nasdaq Composite Index

Analysis

It’s called trend “following”, remember!?

Yeah, yeah – I should have seen last night’s wipeout coming. I should have moved to a lower portfolio risk setting much earlier… But, unfortunately, based on my model, that was just about impossible.

Firstly, I can’t tell the future. This might be a surprise to many, but I don’t have a bloody clue what’s going to happen next. 🤷

I don’t even have an opinion.

Whatever will be will be. 🙈

And that’s ok with me. ✅

My job is not to predict. This is because prediction is futile: the future is unknown and not a single person that was ever born, nor who will ever be, can predict it. For this reason, I don’t waste my time trying.

First and foremost: I accept all outcomes. Who am I to argue? Nobody cares what I think anyway!

Then, I apply my model.

I trust you agree that my model is pretty well defined, and I hope you also agree it’s effective MOTN (More Often Than Not).

Sometimes, the model gets sufficient indication from the demand-supply environment that the tide is turning very quickly/early in a major trend reversal (or a minor one!), and other times it takes a bit longer.

It’s all good. Accept + Apply. 🧘

This time around, depending on whether this is a major or minor trend reversal, last night's signal may still turn out to be very early indeed!

Whilst my model was still FRP heading into yesterday’s analysis ("Two ✅ and one ⚖️" remember!?), I did clearly state that the lack of volume in the prior 4 sessions meant that: “I 100% continue to expect we’re going to have a supply-side interaction somewhere between here and 24020 (read as above average volume days).”

Well, it looks like we just had it!

But, also as I said yesterday – and as I’ve written many times in my ChartWatch analysis before: a supply-side showing in an uptrend isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It allows us to gauge by both the demand and supply-side’s responses just how effective each is at dealing with the news presently driving market reaction.

Quoting yesterday’s analysis again:

• A. Do they soak up that supply and log strong demand-side candles (i.e., long white-bodied and or long downward pointing shadows)?

Or

• B. Do they capitulate under the supply-side's quantity and motivation (i.e., long black-bodied and or long upward pointing shadows)?

We have our answer: B.

As I do most days, let’s run the latest trend, price action, and candle analysis based on the new candle the market has blessed us with! 🧐

(Consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs Consistent with supply-side control = ⚠️)

• ST / LT Trends ⬆️/⬆️; the long term uptrend ribbon appears to be acting as a zone of dynamic excess demand ✅ the short term uptrend ribbon has failed as a zone of dynamic excess demand ❌

• Price action: Yesterday, I gave this a "⚖️" because falling peaks and falling troughs were being balanced by the strong rally from 22563 and the fact the Comp had closed above the balance point of the 24020-22563 move (23292). Today, given the severity of last night's drop, plus its formation of a clear lower trough to 24020, I'm going with ❌

• Candles: After last night's credible supply-side showing, i.e., sharply lower open (roughly in-line with Wednesday's low), long black candle, and close very near the session low – this moves to ⚖️

✅❌❌⚖️

Versus yesterday's ✅✅⚖️✅.

Things change. Accept + Apply.

View

There's enough evidence to reduce the maximum level I can fill my US stocks "risk bucket". I am moving to 2/3RP (2/3 Risk Position corresponds to a 67% allowable capital allocation limit for US stocks based on my personal risk management model).

Key levels

22563 it is a "critical line in the sand" for demand-side control – and therefore a close below this point will trigger a cut to my US capital allocation limit to 1/2RP = ⚠️. The next critical zone of demand below 22563 is 22058-185 – below it, the short term trend is likely down, and the long term trend is under significant pressure = ⚠️ 23570-24020 is the critical zone of supply – the Comp must close in or above this zone with a strong demand-side candle for me to move back to FRP.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Analysis

Okay, given the change in the level of my risk bucket for US stocks, let's stay here today. Let's check out the top 5 US stocks by market capitalisation – the most influential determinants of the Comp's price action. If we can find trends within the charts here, we may better understand just how dire (or not!) the present situation is. 🤔

I'll run the model's check list on each. Starting with this one, NVIDIA:

(Consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs Consistent with supply-side control = ⚠️)

• ST / LT Trends ↔️/⬆️; the long term uptrend ribbon appears to be acting as a zone of dynamic excess demand ✅ the short term trend ribbon has neutralised and it has failed as a zone of dynamic excess demand ❌

• Price action: falling peaks and falling troughs with decent separation between the peaks (i.e., decent supply reinforcement) vs trading close to the last trough (i.e., demand removal) ❌

• Candles: Even before last night's supply-side showing, arguably skewed towards supply-side predominance since the 29-Oct 212.19 peak ❌

❌✅❌❌

View

Those emojis make the situation look worse than it really is here. The long term trend remains a monster, and therefore in my opinion is that some risk is warranted here. However, based on the short term technicals, I cannot warrant FRP. It's =R at best by my model (i.e., maintain existing risk), with my model viewing the next -R event as a close below the 7-Nov 178.91 low/point of demand.

Key levels

178.91 is the nearest point of demand. The 10-Nov high of 199.94 is the nearest point of supply. In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, NVDA must close back above this point to demonstrate the demand-side is moving back into control.

Apple (AAPL)

Analysis

Can I open here by saying: What a picture of demand-side control. Correction? What correction!? 😉

(Consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs Consistent with supply-side control = ⚠️)

• ST / LT Trends ⬆️/⬆️; the short and long term uptrend ribbons are strengthening (widening) and both appear to be acting as a zones of dynamic excess demand ✅✅

• Price action: rising peaks and rising troughs, decent separation between the peaks and troughs (i.e., strong supply removal and demand reinforcement) ✅

• Candles: Last night's supply-side showing is very modest considering the carnage elsewhere! Is that the worst the supply-side can do here – and what does it say about the demand-side's resolve to stand in their way!? ✅

✅✅✅✅

View

My model can only possibly have three letters for you here: FRP. It would even be happy to add risk (+R) on the next demand-side candle ("NDSC"). The model is =R in the meantime.

Key levels

AAPL traded a few cents from its record high last night. That high of 277.05 is the nearest point of supply. The 3-Nov low of 265.99 is the nearest point of demand. The short term uptrend ribbon (presently 262-267) should also act as a zone of dynamic excess demand – the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of AAPL's price.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Analysis

None of these 5 charts are write-offs, but this one appears to be under the greatest supply-side control.

(Consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs Consistent with supply-side control = ⚠️)

• ST / LT Trends ⬇️/⬆️; the short term downtrend ribbon appears to be acting as a zone of dynamic excess supply ❌, the long term uptrend ribbon appears to be acting as a zone of dynamic excess demand ✅

• Price action: falling peaks and falling troughs, decent separation between the peaks (i.e., decent supply reinforcement) vs trading close to the last trough (i.e., demand removal) ❌

• Candles: Even before last night's supply-side showing, arguably skewed towards supply-side predominance since the 28-Oct 553.72 peak ❌

❌✅❌❌

View

I think this is a little further along than NVDA. That short term trend makes it very hard for my model (based on my shorter term trading style) to justify any risk position here. So, I'm going with ZRP. (Zero Risk Position). My model views a close below the 7-Nov 493.25 low/point of demand as a -R event.

Key levels

493.25 is the nearest point of demand. The short term downtrend ribbon (presently 512-514) is the nearest zone of supply. In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, MSFT must close back above this point to demonstrate the demand-side is moving back into control.

Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL)

Analysis

Clearly the second best demonstration of demand-side control we've seen today. ✌️

(Consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs Consistent with supply-side control = ⚠️)

• ST / LT Trends ⬆️/⬆️; the short and long term uptrend ribbons are strengthening (widening) and both appear to be acting as a zones of dynamic excess demand ✅✅

• Price action: rising peaks and rising troughs, decent separation between the peaks and troughs (i.e., strong supply removal and demand reinforcement) ✅

• Candles: Last night's supply-side showing is more credible than AAPL's. It has my attention, but it's not enough to swing the broader balance to equilibrium, let alone supply-side control ✅

✅✅✅✅

View

Not a great candle last night, but like AAPL, my model can only possibly offer FRP here. It would still even be happy to add risk (+R) on the NDSC. =R in the meantime.

Key levels

The 12-Nov all-time high of 292.34 is the nearest point of supply. The 7-Nov low of 275.74 is the nearest point of demand. The short term uptrend ribbon (presently 266-275) should also act as a zone of dynamic excess demand – the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of GOOG's price.

Amazon (AMZN)

Analysis

(Consistent with demand-side control = ✅ vs Consistent with supply-side control = ⚠️)

• ST / LT Trends ⬆️/⬆️; the short and long term uptrend ribbons appear to be acting as zones of dynamic excess demand ✅✅

• Price action: falling peaks and falling troughs, decent separation between the peaks (decent supply reinforcement) ❌

• Candles: Last night's strong supply-side showing arguably brings us back to ⚖️ at best here... maybe bordering on ❌

✅✅❌⚖️

View

The demand-side response at the short term uptrend ribbon will be key. There are some major issues with the price action and candles since the 3-Nov major peak of 258.60. Last night's candle closed below the 7-Nov point of demand of 238.49 and therefore triggers a -R event under my model. The next -R event would occur on a close below the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 234-237).

Key levels

The short term uptrend ribbon (presently 234-237) is the nearest zone of demand – the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of AMZN's price. The 10-Nov high of 251.75 is the nearest point of supply, in the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, AMZN's price must close back above here to demonstrate the demand-side is moving back into control.

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