The S&P/ASX 200 closed 55.0 points higher, up 0.66%.
Given US bond and stock markets were closed Monday, and with few clear leads from major commodities markets overnight, there really wasn’t a great deal for the local market to trade on today apart from the BIG ONE – the inauguration of President Donald Trump as the “45-47” president(s) of the United States.
There were substantial winners and losers on the Australian stock market today. So, in tonight's wrap we'll take a deep dive into the major market moves that have so far followed President Trump's inauguration and his announcing of the first salvo of his sweeping actions.
Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.
Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Trump market response in today's ChartWatch.
Let's dive in!
Tue 21 Jan 25, 4:56pm (AEDT)
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The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 55.0 points higher at 8,402.4, nearly smack–bang at the mid-point of the session's range – 0.66% from its session low and 0.61% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a comprehensive 187 to 90.
Given US bond and stock markets were closed Monday, and with few clear leads from major commodities markets overnight, there really wasn’t a great deal for the local market to trade on today apart from the BIG ONE – the inauguration of President Donald Trump as the “45-47” president(s) of the United States.
All hail…ahem…perhaps we better not, Elon! 🤦
The new Prez wasted no time in outlining his plans for a new “golden age” for America as well as subsequently signing into effect several executive orders enforcing changes to climate, immigration, and energy.
You can find a detailed list of the stuff he’s done so far as well as some of the items he intends to do in this article.
It looked like a bit of an interest rates-down-winners plus commodities-should-be winners first response from the Australian stock market – although I propose the actual response will occur from tomorrow as we react to moves in US stocks tonight.
The Gold (XGD) (+1.9%) sub-index was the best performing sector today (gold up only slightly, but it loves the lower risk-free market yields have so far flowed from the Trump actions). Bond-proxy Financials (XFJ) (+1.2%), mortgage-pegged Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.89%), and high-PE Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.94%) next, with Resources (XJR) (+0.80%) not far behind.
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Core Lithium (CXO) | $0.105 | +$0.015 | +16.7% | +28.0% | -50.0% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | $0.705 | +$0.075 | +11.9% | +28.2% | -42.0% |
Hub24 (HUB) | $72.43 | +$7.2 | +11.0% | 0.0% | +98.1% |
Petratherm (PTR) | $0.425 | +$0.03 | +7.6% | +46.6% | +620.3% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | $3.54 | +$0.2 | +6.0% | +26.9% | +420.6% |
Kogan.Com (KGN) | $5.92 | +$0.31 | +5.5% | -3.1% | +31.6% |
Zip Co. (ZIP) | $3.15 | +$0.14 | +4.7% | +1.0% | +478.0% |
Metals X (MLX) | $0.450 | +$0.02 | +4.7% | +12.5% | +73.1% |
Netwealth Group (NWL) | $28.13 | +$1.24 | +4.6% | -2.8% | +68.1% |
The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) | $0.120 | +$0.005 | +4.3% | -41.5% | -76.7% |
Sayona Mining (SYA) | $0.024 | +$0.001 | +4.3% | -4.0% | -51.0% |
Bellevue Gold (BGL) | $1.140 | +$0.045 | +4.1% | -6.2% | -20.3% |
MA Financial Group (MAF) | $6.46 | +$0.24 | +3.9% | +8.9% | +15.8% |
Emerald Resources (EMR) | $3.64 | +$0.13 | +3.7% | +2.8% | +11.7% |
Fenix Resources (FEX) | $0.285 | +$0.01 | +3.6% | +3.6% | +5.6% |
Myer (MYR) | $0.890 | +$0.03 | +3.5% | -25.8% | +32.8% |
Jupiter Mines (JMS) | $0.150 | +$0.005 | +3.4% | +11.1% | -14.3% |
Regis Resources (RRL) | $3.01 | +$0.1 | +3.4% | +10.3% | +45.4% |
JB HI-FI (JBH) | $98.01 | +$3.16 | +3.3% | +1.7% | +71.0% |
PWR Holdings (PWH) | $8.10 | +$0.26 | +3.3% | -1.1% | -16.8% |
GQG Partners (GQG) | $2.03 | +$0.065 | +3.3% | -11.7% | +17.7% |
Judo Capital (JDO) | $1.920 | +$0.06 | +3.2% | +4.3% | +91.0% |
Spartan Resources (SPR) | $1.465 | +$0.045 | +3.2% | +5.8% | +220.5% |
Temple & Webster Group (TPW) | $13.48 | +$0.41 | +3.1% | -2.9% | +58.0% |
Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) | $24.93 | +$0.72 | +3.0% | +3.1% | +149.3% |
Losers? These were few and far between, but I propose greater oil and gas exploration may lead to greater supply and lower energy prices down the track. This triggered selling in the likes of AGL Energy (ASX: AGL) (-%) and Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) (-1.4%) which dragged on today’s worst performing sector, Utilities (XUJ) (-2.3%).
We'll do a deeper dive into the market moves following President Trump's actions so far in ChartWatch below 👇
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Ramsay Health Care (RHC) | $32.70 | -$0.92 | -2.7% | -8.1% | -33.8% |
Ansell (ANN) | $33.65 | -$0.85 | -2.5% | -0.1% | +41.7% |
Sigma Healthcare (SIG) | $2.78 | -$0.07 | -2.5% | +2.6% | +189.6% |
Origin Energy (ORG) | $10.94 | -$0.26 | -2.3% | +3.0% | +33.3% |
Dimerix (DXB) | $0.480 | -$0.01 | -2.0% | +41.2% | +140.0% |
AGL Energy (AGL) | $11.65 | -$0.17 | -1.4% | +7.7% | +33.3% |
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH) | $34.69 | -$0.44 | -1.3% | +0.5% | +59.5% |
Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit (HCW) | $0.940 | -$0.01 | -1.1% | -9.2% | -28.0% |
Homeco Daily Needs Reit (HDN) | $1.175 | -$0.01 | -0.8% | +0.4% | -4.1% |
Waypoint Reit (WPR) | $2.42 | -$0.02 | -0.8% | 0% | +7.6% |
Arena Reit. (ARF) | $3.93 | -$0.03 | -0.8% | 0% | +6.8% |
Integral Diagnostics (IDX) | $2.96 | -$0.02 | -0.7% | -0.7% | +60.9% |
Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR) | $3.22 | -$0.02 | -0.6% | -1.2% | -6.4% |
BWP Trust (BWP) | $3.34 | -$0.02 | -0.6% | -2.1% | -2.3% |
Ingenia Communities Group (INA) | $5.32 | -$0.03 | -0.6% | +12.7% | +20.6% |
Goodman Group (GMG) | $37.85 | -$0.21 | -0.6% | +2.8% | +58.2% |
Vicinity Centres (VCX) | $2.14 | -$0.01 | -0.5% | +3.9% | +10.9% |
CSL (CSL) | $273.42 | -$1.15 | -0.4% | -3.1% | -3.3% |
Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP) | $2.85 | -$0.01 | -0.4% | -2.1% | -7.8% |
Scentre Group (SCG) | $3.62 | -$0.01 | -0.3% | +4.3% | +27.0% |
You always start with bonds. The price of risk-free money. Nothing on the planet moves very much without consideration of the price of risk-free money because this is how one works out the lowest common denominator of opportunity cost.
Yes, you'd ordinarily expect me to say that demand and supply create price. But it's opportunity cost that ultimately creates demand and supply – or more specifically – the overriding desire of market participants to minimise it.
If you get this bit, you get economics.
Anyways, the first response from the price of money market is to make money cheaper (i.e., bond yields are modestly lower), and this should encourage the taking of greater risks by market participants. Translation, so far, moves in bond markets are good for stocks…
This is the next logical place to go – the coal face of capital moving into and out of the United States. So far, it looks like there’s been a modest outflow of capital, and the Monday candle (i.e., second last on chart – remember to discount the current, live candle) is a decent supply-side showing.
Perhaps the greatest relevance with respect to this item is the US dollar’s influence on commodities pricing. Most benchmark commodities contracts are priced in US dollars. This means that typically, a weaker US dollar is a positive for commodities as them cheaper to purchase by non-US buyers.
The short and long term uptrends remain intact here, but this is a ‘live’ chart given the aforementioned candle.
Given the above analysis, the next logical place to go is gold. Gold prefers both lower market risk-free yields and a lower US dollar. So, double tick here ✅✅.
Having said this, the response so far in terms of positive price action on the gold chart is underwhelming. As noted in the Market Wrap section, gold stocks did rally today, however.
Trends are better than decent here, and should yields and the Greenback continue to move in the right direction for gold, I can’t see any reason why those prevailing trends cannot continue.
One of the key policy agenda items acted upon by President Trump during his first day in office is energy policy – namely the removal of certain restrictions on oil and gas exploration. The gist of this item is: potentially greater exploration could lead to potentially greater supply, and therefore potentially lower prices.
Notice the liberal use of the word “potentially” there…
Still, as this is likely to be a long term negative for oil and gas prices, and as a result we’ve seen an immediate reaction lower in each of their charts.
Ironically, both were West Texas and US Natural Gas prices were spiking over the last few weeks on US policy (i.e., the stepping up of Russian energy sanctions and repricing of energy commodities in anticipation of pending Trump tariffs).
So far only Asian and Australian markets have had a chance to respond (European markets are likely opening as I write this).
Potentially, China has the most to lose for upcoming Trump policies, and perhaps the lack of Big Stick today facilitated an early rally in Chinese stocks.
As you can see from the above chart, however, that rally has faded and is now a modest loss.
Not a huge response here so far, granted, but an example of how the market will have to figure out what the so called “new age” of US economics means for the rest of us!
Finishing off back home. A strong response to proceedings today. Lower yields, lower Greenback, no major China tariff Big Stick…let’s go three checks here ✅✅✅.
I like the short and long term trends here, but today's upward pointing shadow is disappointing. We really should have bottled it today. Overall, though, I remain happy to stay the course with Aussie stocks.
There are potentially some negatives with respect to the rollback of EV subsidies and incentives for the likes of copper, lithium, rare earths and other battery/energy transition metals.
Copper futures are trading, and they’re down (see chart below). Lithium futures are also modestly lower in China (I’ll do close of day charts via my X/Twitter feed later this evening).
Also on the oil and gas stuff versus ASX response – you can see from the lack of major downside in the local Energy (XEJ) (+0.06%) sector today – investors aren't anticipating a major near-term impact just yet.
Today
There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today (+0% actual vs +% forecast vs +% previous)
Wednesday
N/a
Thursday
N/a
Friday
09:00 AUS Flash Manufacturing PMI & Flash Services PMI January (47.8 and 50.8 respectively in December)
TBA JPY Bank of Japan Policy Rate (increase to less than 0.50% versus previous less than 0.25%)
20:00 EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI & Services PMI for January (45.6 and 51.4 forecast respectively vs 45.1 and 51.6 respectively in December)
Saturday
01:45 USA Flash Manufacturing PMI & Services PMI for January (49.4 and 56.8 respectively in December)
+16.7% Core Lithium (CXO) - No news, perhaps a delayed response to the broader rally in the ASX lithium sector…🤔
+11.9% Liontown Resources (LTR) - December 2024 Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report and December 2024 Quarter Presentation, ditto continued renewed hopes for lithium sector turnaround
+11.0% Hub24 (HUB) - HUB24 Q2 FY25 Market Update, upgraded to buy from hold at Ord Minnett (price target at $73), rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈
+5.5% Yancoal Australia (YAL) - Quaterly Activities Report - 4Q 2024, closed back above long term trend ribbon
+5.5% Kogan.Com (KGN) - No news, generally stronger Consumer Discretionary sector today
+5.4% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - No news, likely continued positive response to 16-Jan Neuren JP Morgan Healthcare Conference 2025 presentation
+4.7% Metals X (MLX) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+4.7% Zip Co. (ZIP) - No news, generally stronger Consumer Discretionary/Financial sectors today, US exposure…rise is consistent with prevailing long term uptrend 🔎📈
+4.6% Netwealth Group (NWL) - No news, but likely got a bump from the HUB results
+4.2% Vault Minerals (VAU) - No news, generally stronger Gold sector today
+4.1% Opthea (OPT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list regular 🔎📈
+4.1% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - Drilling results support H2 FY25 guidance, ditto generally stronger Gold sector today
+3.9% MA Financial Group (MAF) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent addition to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈
+3.7% Emerald Resources (EMR) - No news, ditto generally stronger Gold sector today
-22.6% Carnarvon Energy (CVN) - Dorado project update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends 🔎📉
-5.4% Novonix (NVX) - NOVONIX Announces Transition of Chief Executive Officer, possibly also some Trump-related negative fallout here (with respect to rolling back EV subsidies and incentives), but really, likely just a case of: fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list regular 🔎📉
-5.3% Smartpay (SMP) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends (must be getting omitted from my ChartWatch scans due to my liquidity filters; otherwise, I propose it would have been a stalwart of the ChartWatch Downtrends list over the last 6 months!) 🔎📉
-4.4% Tabcorp (TAH) - No news, possibly just a pullback after several days of strong gains
-3.8% Johns Lyng Group (JLG) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list regular 🔎📉
Amaero International (3DA)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.60
ANZ Group (ANZ)
Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $28.00 from $26.50
Andean Silver (ASL)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.85
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)
Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.50 from $9.50
Bellevue Gold (BGL)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.95
Biome Australia (BIO)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.85
Bank of Queensland (BOQ)
Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.75 from $5.50
Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.50
Brightstar Resources (BTR)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.06
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)
Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $105.00 from $97.00
Challenger (CGF)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.80
Champion Iron (CIA)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.15 from $7.10
Computershare (CPU)
Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $35.00 from $30.00
Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $34.00 from $30.50
Carnarvon Energy (CVN)
Upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.18 from $0.20
Calix (CXL)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.70 from $2.00
Domain Australia (DHG)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.20
Duratec (DUR)
Initiated at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $1.75
Deep Yellow (DYL)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.90
Electro Optic Systems (EOS)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.00
Findi (FND)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.32 from $7.76
Genesis Minerals (GMD)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.20
Genusplus Group (GNP)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.10
Gold Road Resources (GOR)
Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.40
Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.75 from $2.50
Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $2.30
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.30
Helloworld Travel (HLO)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.50
HMC Capital (HMC)
Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $13.50 from $9.05
Hub24 (HUB)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $74.50 from $73.80
Upgraded to buy from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $73.00
Insurance Australia Group (IAG)
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.00 from $7.55
Imdex (IMD)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.95
Ioneer (INR)
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.30
Iress (IRE)
Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $10.15 from $9.25
Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $10.00
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.00
Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $11.00
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)
Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $7.50
Mader Group (MAD)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.80 from $7.20
Medadvisor (MDR)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.55
Mesoblast (MSB)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.90 from $1.40
National Australia Bank (NAB)
Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $36.00 from $32.50
National Storage Reit (NSR)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.70
Origin Energy (ORG)
Downgraded to underweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $10.65 from $9.90
Patriot Battery Metals (PMT)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.75
Perpetual (PPT)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $22.50
Platinum Asset Management (PTM)
Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.59 from $0.74
QBE Insurance Group (QBE)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $23.50 from $21.25
REA Group (REA)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $230.00
Regal Partners (RPL)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.85
South32 (S32)
Retained at sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.35
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.90
Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $4.00
Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $3.40
Retained at market-perform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.40
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.90
Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.10
Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.35
Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.00
Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $4.00
Santana Minerals (SMI)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.07
Strickland Metals (STK)
Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.17
Suncorp Group (SUN)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $22.10 from $20.50
Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)
Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $28.00 from $26.50
Woodside Energy Group (WDS)
Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $27.00 from $26.25
WEB Travel Group (WEB)
Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $6.70 from $6.60
Wesfarmers (WES)
Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $62.00 from $59.00
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