Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 notches gain as gold, copper stocks prosper. Lendlease up as concedes defeat, Neuren soars on trial success

Mon 27 May 24, 5:39pm (AEST)

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Share article

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 60.7 points higher, up 0.79%.

A gain is a gain. 60.7 points. We'll take it.

Just try not to think about the fact those 60.7 points didn't recoup Friday's falls, nor anywhere near last week's total losses!

Gold stocks bounced back today, but were largely not joined by the rest of the Resources sector with iron ore, lithium, and uranium stocks generally suffering. Key copper stocks were nicely higher, though.

Beaten down Lendlease (LLC) got a boost on the announcement it's conceding defeat in its overseas operations, and Neuren Pharmaceuticals Ltd (NEU) soared on positive news a Phase 2 trial aimed at treating Pitt Hopkins syndrome showed "significant improvements".

Let's dive in!


Today in Review

Mon 27 May 24, 4:40pm (AEST)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 7,788.3 +0.79%
All Ords 8,058.6 +0.74%
Small Ords 3,041.4 +1.02%
All Tech 3,076.0 +0.40%
Emerging Companies 2,228.5 -0.12%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6632 +0.06%
US Futures
S&P 500 5,322.0 +0.01%
Dow Jones 39,138.0 -0.05%
Nasdaq 18,875.5 0.00%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Real Estate 3,666.8 +1.80%
Communication Services 1,474.2 +1.36%
Consumer Staples 11,870.6 +1.33%
Consumer Discretionary 3,417.4 +1.14%
Industrials 6,963.1 +0.96%
Financials 7,368.8 +0.84%
Information Technology 2,315.8 +0.61%
Materials 18,397.2 +0.51%
Health Care 42,518.4 +0.38%
Utilities 9,248.5 +0.27%
Energy 10,232.1 -0.23%

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Markets

XJO Intraday Chart 27 May 2024
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 60.7 points higher at 7,788.3, 0.70% from its session ow and just 0.06% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a resounding 213 to 63.

The Gold (XGD) (+1.9%) sub-index was the best performing sector today. There weren't any clear drivers for the sector as both gold and silver prices were muted on Friday. We are however, seeing very modest gains in Asian trading, and with US markets on holiday Monday for Memorial day, perhaps the market is perceiving a free pass.

It might also be perceiving/guessing/forecasting/jumping the gun that key chart resistance around current prices for each precious metal are going to hold. See COMEX silver futures chart below as a case in point...

Silver Futures COMEX chart 27 May 2024
Can silver hold the demand zone, and therefore setup to challenge recent highs?

More generally, one could argue that it was the Resources (XJR) (+1.8%) sector that stood out today (given the XGD is a sub-sector of Resources).

At the top line, it did appear to be a very good day for the sector, but dig a little deeper and it was far from a unanimous vote of confidence. I note that outside of gold and silver, several other areas of resources such as iron ore, lithium, and uranium had generally tough sessions.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Southern Cross Gold (SXG)

$3.00

+$0.25

+9.1%

+30.4%

+450.7%

29METALS (29M)

$0.535

+$0.03

+5.9%

+13.8%

-46.2%

Sayona Mining (SYA)

$0.044

+$0.002

+4.8%

+33.3%

-81.3%

Emerald Resources (EMR)

$3.78

+$0.16

+4.4%

+10.9%

+90.4%

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

$1.855

+$0.075

+4.2%

+5.7%

+57.2%

Silver Lake Resources (SLR)

$1.585

+$0.05

+3.3%

+10.1%

+48.1%

Gold Road Resources (GOR)

$1.640

+$0.05

+3.1%

-1.5%

-12.1%

Ramelius Resources (RMS)

$2.05

+$0.06

+3.0%

+2.0%

+45.9%

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

$1.945

+$0.055

+2.9%

+12.8%

+52.5%

Chalice Mining (CHN)

$1.725

+$0.045

+2.7%

+50.0%

-76.6%

Evolution Mining (EVN)

$3.93

+$0.1

+2.6%

-3.0%

+7.1%

Arafura Rare Earths (ARU)

$0.200

+$0.005

+2.6%

+8.1%

-48.7%

Northern Star Resources (NST)

$14.47

+$0.26

+1.8%

-4.2%

+10.6%

Perseus Mining (PRU)

$2.48

+$0.04

+1.6%

+6.9%

+26.9%

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

$9.50

+$0.13

+1.4%

+2.8%

+69.0%

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

$63.35

+$0.84

+1.3%

-3.6%

0%

BHP Group (BHP)

$45.15

+$0.51

+1.1%

+4.6%

+5.4%

Rio Tinto (RIO)

$131.69

-$0.81

-0.6%

+0.6%

+23.0%

Liontown Resources (LTR)

$1.360

-$0.01

-0.7%

+21.4%

-51.6%

WA1 Resources (WA1)

$20.39

-$0.16

-0.8%

+13.2%

+406.0%

Fortescue (FMG)

$26.51

-$0.26

-1.0%

+3.6%

+35.1%

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

$3.90

-$0.04

-1.0%

+2.6%

-16.8%

IGO (IGO)

$7.25

-$0.11

-1.5%

+2.0%

-49.6%

Iluka Resources (ILU)

$7.26

-$0.21

-2.8%

-0.7%

-35.8%

Latin Resources (LRS)

$0.250

-$0.01

-3.8%

+19.0%

+31.6%

Nickel Industries (NIC)

$0.935

-$0.06

-6.0%

+6.9%

+10.0%

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

$4.82

-$0.51

-9.6%

+50.6%

+22.0%

Outside of gold it was tough going for Aussie Resources stocks today...

Also doing well today was the Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+1.6%) sector. Lower market rates, particularly locally, helped, but big gains in Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC) and HMC Capital (ASX: HMC) were mostly to blame for the strength here (see Interesting Moves section below for more info on each) . Still, as you can see from the table below, sector gains were broad.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Lendlease Group (LLC)

$6.36

+$0.47

+8.0%

-0.6%

-18.6%

HMC Capital (HMC)

$7.25

+$0.33

+4.8%

+15.8%

+64.0%

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

$4.93

+$0.21

+4.4%

+8.6%

+14.4%

Goodman Group (GMG)

$34.45

+$0.78

+2.3%

+11.8%

+71.4%

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

$1.775

+$0.04

+2.3%

+5.0%

+2.3%

Arena Reit. (ARF)

$3.85

+$0.08

+2.1%

+9.1%

+4.6%

Stockland (SGP)

$4.49

+$0.08

+1.8%

+3.7%

+2.3%

Waypoint Reit (WPR)

$2.44

+$0.04

+1.7%

+5.6%

-7.9%

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

$12.73

+$0.2

+1.6%

+9.6%

-19.3%

Scentre Group (SCG)

$3.15

+$0.04

+1.3%

+1.6%

+14.1%

Homeco Daily Needs Reit (HDN)

$1.245

+$0.015

+1.2%

+3.8%

+2.9%

Charter Hall Long Wale Reit (CLW)

$3.49

+$0.04

+1.2%

+4.2%

-19.4%

Broad-based gains for property today, led by LLC and HMC

Just one of the 11 major ASX sectors was in the black today, Energy (XEJ) (-0.22%) sector. A sharp decline in natural gas futures in the USA on Friday might be to blame here, or it could simply be a case of follow the prevailing downtrends present in the vast majority of stocks in the sector.


ChartWatch

Nasdaq Composite Index

Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) chart 24 May 2024
Nothing short of little green men landing on the Whitehouse lawn...

We last covered the COMP in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 21 May. Since then, it’s been business as usual with the exception of a major supply-side outlier in the form of Thursday’s candle.

That long black candle (after a gap up open) looked bad (as in really bad!) but then poof – it appears it’s come to nothing. Let’s put it down to just another COMP speed wobble, or at least that’s the conclusion we must draw after Friday’s demand-side candle which went most of the way to negating the Thursday blip.

Clearly, it’s going to take a wall of dedicated supply to change the short term uptrend here, and what seems like unimaginable excess supply to change the long term uptrend. Where is it going to come from in a market so dedicated to buy and hold, and why?

That’s a question for value investors and bears – not for little old trend following me!

I concede the candle that kicks it all off could print tonight. This is because the future is unknown and literally anything can happen (e.g. little green men landing on the Whitehouse lawn). In the meantime, our new alien overlords aside – the status quo is a wall of excess demand.

16450-16539 is the closest major point of demand. Dynamic demand from the short term uptrend ribbon is not far below it, and together create an important delineator of short term uptrend from downtrend.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&PASX 200 (XJO) Chart 27 May 2024
Ok, finally an up day = let's take a look at the XJO

21 May was also the last time we covered this one. (I really didn’t want to look at this chart much last week πŸ˜’! But I’ll happily look at it today though!)

As much as we’ll take today’s 60.7 point gain, and the nice white candle that comes with it, it leaves us with plenty of work still to do to overcome the convincing showing of supply-side dominance witnessed last week.

It’s encouraging to see that the 7714 point of demand has so far held – today’s move makes it even more important as a delineator (my favourite new word today!) of short term uptrend from short term downtrend.

A close beneath 7714 potentially sets us up for deeper falls to probe historical demand at 7556 and the dynamic demand of the long term uptrend ribbon.

Looking up, and I believe we still have every reason to do so, 7900-7911 is a clearly important and stubborn zone of supply. We need to close above it – it really is that simple.

If we can, then an 8 handle beckons 🀞.


Economy

Today

  • There weren't any major economic data announcements in our time zone today.

  • Note , US markets are closed Monday for Memorial Day

Later this week

Tuesday

  • 11:30 AUS Retail Sales April (+0.3% forecast vs -0.4% March)

Wednesday

  • 00:00 USA Consumer Confidence May (96.1 forecast vs +97.0 April)

  • 11:30 AUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) April (+3.4% p.a. forecast vs +3.5% p.a. March)

Thursday

  • 11:30 AUS Building Approvals April (+1.8% m/m forecast vs +1.9% m/m March)

  • 22:30 USA Prelim GDP March (+1.3% q/q forecast vs +1.6% q/q December)

Friday

  • 00:00 USA Pending Home Sales April (+0.1% m/m forecast vs +3.4% m/m March)

  • 11:30 CHN Manufacturing PMI May (50.4 forecast vs 50.4 April)

  • 11:30 CHN Non-Manufacturing PMI May (51.5 forecast vs 51.2 April)

  • 19:30 EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate May (+2.5% p.a. forecast vs +2.4% p.a. April)

  • 22:30 USA Core PCE Price Index April (+0.2% m/m and +2.8% p.a. forecast vs +0.3% m/m and +2.8% p.a. March)


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

Trading lower

  • -9.6% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - Managing Director & CEO's Amended AGM Presentation

  • -6.4% Audinate Group (AD8) - Resignation of Chief Financial Officer, at risk of closing below long term uptrend ribbon πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -6.0% Nickel Industries (NIC) - No news, closed below short term uptrend ribbon πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -5.8% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) - No news, likely continued negative fallout from Friday's Mayne Pharma Market Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, falling peaks and falling troughs, long term trend is transitioning from up to down πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -4.7% Strike Energy (STX) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend πŸ”ŽπŸ“‰

  • -4.4% Regis Healthcare (REG) - No news πŸ€”

  • -3.8% Latin Resources (LRS) - No news, generally weaker ASX lithium sector today

  • -3.3% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - No news πŸ€”

  • -3.2% Silex Systems (SLX) - No news, generally weaker ASX uranium sector today


Broker Notes

  • AIC Mines (A1M)

    • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.65 from $0.85

    • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.20 from $0.90

  • The A2 Milk Company (A2M) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.85

  • ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $24.50

  • ASX (ASX) retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $53.50

  • Bluescope Steel (BSL) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $24.00 from $24.50

  • Brambles (BXB) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $17.30

  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $85.00

  • Collins Foods (CKF) retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $11.50 from $12.40

  • Cromwell Property Group (CMW) retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.66 from $0.56

  • Coles Group (COL) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $19.00

  • Evolution Mining (EVN) upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $4.20 from $4.10

  • Fletcher Building (FBU) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: NZ$3.10

  • HMC Capital (HMC)

    • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.40 from $7.30

    • Retained at sell at CLSA; Price Target: $5.99 from $5.24

    • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $7.25 from $7.00

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.76

    • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.05

    • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.95

  • IDP Education (IEL) retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $17.65

  • Imdex (IMD) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.00

  • Ingenia Communities Group (INA) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.30

  • Lendlease Group (LLC)

    • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $6.90

    • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $7.10

  • Latin Resources (LRS) retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.40

  • Mirvac Group (MGR) retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.30

  • National Australia Bank (NAB) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $26.50

  • New Hope Corporation (NHC) initiated at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.70

  • Nickel Industries (NIC) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.10

  • Northern Star Resources (NST) upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $15.50 from $13.25

  • Nufarm (NUF)

    • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.80 from $5.80

    • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $5.22 from $5.40

  • NRW Holdings (NWH) upgraded to buy from hold at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $3.15

  • Pantoro (PNR) retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.10 from $0.08

  • Sandfire Resources (SFR) retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.80

  • Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $15.25

  • Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $24.75

  • Woolworths Group (WOW) retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $39.00

  • Xero (XRO) downgraded to marketweight from overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $131.63 from $126.93


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
DY6 DY6 Metals Ltd $0.165 +334.21%
CAQ CAQ Holdings Ltd $0.03 +100.00%
AMM Armada Metals Ltd $0.02 +53.85%
SNX Sierra Nevada Gol... $0.12 +53.85%
ICE Icetana Ltd $0.027 +50.00%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
PHO Phosco Ltd $0.04 -33.33%
GHY Gold Hydrogen Ltd $1.42 -28.46%
PPY Papyrus Australia... $0.011 -26.67%
EMS Eastern Metals Ltd $0.037 -26.00%
AMO Ambertech Ltd $0.24 -25.00%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
CAQ CAQ Holdings Ltd $0.03 +100.00%
DXB Dimerix Ltd $0.425 +25.00%
GUL Gullewa Ltd $0.068 +23.64%
SRT Strata Investment... $0.25 +19.05%
VGL Vista Group Inter... $1.97 +17.61%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
PHO Phosco Ltd $0.04 -33.33%
TNC True North Copper... $0.059 -21.33%
CCE Carnegie Clean En... $0.04 -18.37%
CYC Cyclopharm Ltd $1.39 -15.76%
OLY Olympio Metals Ltd $0.035 -14.63%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
VUL Vulcan Energy Res... $4.82 -9.57%
GCI Gryphon Capital I... $2.03 -0.49%
AMC Amcor Plc $15.07 +0.07%
GGUS Betashares Geared... $36.71 +0.71%
HBRD Betashares Active... $10.135 -0.15%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
MQGPF Macquarie Group Ltd $104.30 +0.14%
OML Ooh!Media Ltd $1.49 +0.34%
CCX City Chic Collect... $0.29 -1.70%
SPK Spark New Zealand... $3.83 +0.53%
AND Ansarada Group Ltd $2.19 -0.91%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

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