Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 nails record as heightened geopolitical tensions stoke energy, gold and uranium stocks, lithium pain continues

Fri 22 Nov 24, 5:50pm (AEDT)

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The S&P/ASX 200 closed 70.8 points higher, up 0.85%.

Australian stocks put the cherry on top of the icing of a record breaking week today with all but one major ASX sector closing in the black.

That one, Information Technology, was down sharply on the back of a plunge in one of its major constituents, Wisetech Global (WTC). Wisetech was down nearly 20% shortly after the open of trade as investors dumped the stock in the wake of a FY25 profit downgrade.

Wisetech steadied to close only down 12.4% on the session, and it wasn't the only stock to disappoint the market today (try Megaport's (MP1) 9.5% plunge despite reaffirming its FY25 guidance).

In other moves, Lithium stocks were hobbled on yet another dip in lithium minerals prices in China. Pilbara Minerals bore the brunt of the selling, dipping nearly 7%.

Well, that's all the bad news out of the way. Now for the good news, and there's plenty of it... Pretty much everything else went up, including a very nice pop A2 Milk Co. (A2M) as well as strong gains in several major ASX uranium stocks!

Click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all of the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on Gold and Cameco (the world's second biggest uranium producer) in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!


Today in Review

Fri 22 Nov 24, 5:31pm (AEDT)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 8,393.8 +0.85%
All Ords 8,633.1 +0.77%
Small Ords 3,139.9 +0.75%
All Tech 3,840.6 -1.02%
Emerging Companies 2,273.3 +0.61%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6491 -0.31%
US Futures
S&P 500 5,971.0 +0.01%
Dow Jones 44,006.0 +0.04%
Nasdaq 20,807.75 -0.10%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Energy 8,880.1 +2.30%
Utilities 9,087.4 +1.44%
Health Care 44,352.7 +1.34%
Industrials 7,660.2 +1.16%
Financials 9,059.3 +1.15%
Materials 16,787.6 +0.84%
Real Estate 3,958.4 +0.78%
Consumer Staples 11,532.1 +0.77%
Consumer Discretionary 3,868.9 +0.65%
Communication Services 1,672.1 +0.06%
Information Technology 2,779.2 -4.45%

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Markets

XJO Intraday Chart 22 November 2024
ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 70.8 points higher at 8,393.8, 0.85% from its session high and just 0.27% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a resounding 204 to 70.

For the week, the XJO finished up 108.6 points or 1.31% higher, 1.81% from its intraweek low and 0.61% from its intraweek high.

Energy (XEJ) (+2.3%) took out the honour of best performing sector in today’s record setting trading session. Crude oil and natural gas prices rose on Thursday, the latter sharply, on simmering geopolitical tensions (i.e., Russia vs The West!).

These tensions will also likely have an impact on the global uranium market, and this saw strong gains in key global uranium stocks overnight. Those gains spilled over into local uranium plays, but none of them finished with the flourish that Canada’s Cameco did last evening. I have detailed technical analysis on Cameco on today’s ChartWatch section below.

Utilities (XUJ) (+1.4%) was the next best performing sector – but I note it’s basically a sub-sector of the Energy sector…

Also doing well, were defensives like Health Care (XHJ) (+1.3%) and Gold (XGD) (+1.3%) sub-index, the latter benefiting from another solid gain in the gold price overnight and into Asian trade today. Again, full technical analysis for you in tonight’s ChartWatch.

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

$5.45

+$0.64

+13.3%

-6.2%

+35.9%

Firefly Metals (FFM)

$1.165

+$0.1

+9.4%

+10.4%

+142.7%

Lotus Resources (LOT)

$0.245

+$0.015

+6.5%

-7.5%

0%

Deep Yellow (DYL)

$1.265

+$0.075

+6.3%

-12.2%

+9.1%

Paladin Energy (PDN)

$8.20

+$0.46

+5.9%

-33.9%

-18.0%

Superloop (SLC)

$2.14

+$0.12

+5.9%

+7.5%

+231.8%

Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL)

$7.01

+$0.36

+5.4%

+50.8%

+173.8%

Yancoal Australia (YAL)

$6.64

+$0.34

+5.4%

+2.0%

+36.6%

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

$2.55

+$0.13

+5.4%

+38.2%

+269.8%

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

$23.30

+$1.18

+5.3%

+23.2%

+154.1%

Iperionx (IPX)

$4.40

+$0.2

+4.8%

+40.6%

+195.3%

Regis Healthcare (REG)

$6.70

+$0.26

+4.0%

+3.7%

+140.1%

GQG Partners (GQG)

$2.21

+$0.08

+3.8%

-17.5%

+48.3%

Boss Energy (BOE)

$3.07

+$0.11

+3.7%

-14.2%

-26.9%

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

$8.96

+$0.32

+3.7%

+1.1%

-47.9%

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

$2.81

+$0.1

+3.7%

-11.4%

+1.8%

Spartan Resources (SPR)

$1.280

+$0.045

+3.6%

-19.0%

+206.7%

Light & Wonder (LNW)

$146.99

+$5.13

+3.6%

+5.1%

+10.8%

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

$6.91

+$0.24

+3.6%

+7.6%

+0.7%

Metals Acquisition (MAC)

$18.97

+$0.65

+3.5%

+4.5%

0%

Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

$39.05

+$1.3

+3.4%

-6.5%

-22.0%

Nexgen Energy (NXG)

$13.21

+$0.43

+3.4%

+15.6%

+31.8%

Pro Medicus (PME)

$221.75

+$7.13

+3.3%

+19.1%

+149.0%

ALS (ALQ)

$16.16

+$0.5

+3.2%

+15.3%

+31.8%

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

$1.350

+$0.04

+3.1%

-17.7%

-7.5%

Vault Minerals (VAU)

$0.345

+$0.01

+3.0%

-12.7%

+6.2%

Credit Corp Group (CCP)

$18.01

+$0.52

+3.0%

+3.5%

+35.1%

Karoon Energy (KAR)

$1.395

+$0.04

+3.0%

+0.4%

-34.2%

James Hardie Industries (JHX)

$54.98

+$1.5

+2.8%

+8.9%

+13.0%

Today’s best performing ASX stocks

There weren’t many losers today unless on a stock-specific basis you did something silly, like downgrade your FY25 earnings (Wisetech Global (ASX: WTC) (-12.4%)) or reaffirm-but-not-upgrade them (Megaport (ASX: MP1) (-9.5%)). The combination of these follies left the Information Technology (XIJ) (-4.5%) with the dubious honour of being the only major ASX sector to decline on this record setting day.

The only other sector or sub-sector that deserves a mention in the losers column is one which finds itself in this section of my Evening Wrap all to often – lithium. Nothing stock specific I could see here, but I do note that benchmark GFEX lithium carbonate futures are dipping again in China today. Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) was a notable sector laggard, losing nearly 7% of its value.

gfex lithium carbonate futures intraday chart 18 November 2024 MI
Lithium Carbonate Futures (Benchmark moneth, back-adjusted) GFEX (click here for full size image)

Company

Last Price

Change $

Change %

1mo %

1yr %

Wisetech Global (WTC)

$121.74

-$17.19

-12.4%

+22.5%

+82.9%

Megaport (MP1)

$7.57

-$0.79

-9.5%

+8.6%

-27.8%

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

$2.61

-$0.19

-6.8%

-0.8%

-29.1%

Audinate Group (AD8)

$8.47

-$0.49

-5.5%

-1.7%

-42.5%

Appen (APX)

$2.09

-$0.11

-5.0%

+7.5%

+126.4%

Nextdc (NXT)

$15.77

-$0.6

-3.7%

-2.7%

+23.2%

Life360 (360)

$21.00

-$0.71

-3.3%

-2.8%

+165.2%

Catapult International (CAT)

$3.39

-$0.11

-3.1%

+33.5%

+201.3%

Liontown Resources (LTR)

$0.770

-$0.02

-2.5%

-7.8%

-49.3%

Macquarie Technology (MAQ)

$86.74

-$1.31

-1.5%

+14.0%

+38.4%

Dicker Data (DDR)

$8.37

-$0.07

-0.8%

-4.1%

-24.5%

Nuix (NXL)

$6.10

-$0.04

-0.7%

-9.2%

+296.1%

Mineral Resources (MIN)

$33.68

-$0.16

-0.5%

-6.2%

-48.8%

Weebit Nano (WBT)

$2.91

-$0.01

-0.3%

+53.2%

-26.9%

Xero (XRO)

$172.92

-$0.51

-0.3%

+18.2%

+70.8%

IGO (IGO)

$4.95

-$0.01

-0.2%

-3.5%

-46.1%

Siteminder (SDR)

$6.54

-$0.01

-0.2%

+0.8%

+35.7%

Today’s worst performing ASX stocks

ChartWatch

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Gold Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX chart 21 November 2024
A credible bounce (click here for full size image)

The last time we covered gold was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 15 November 2024.

In that update, I noted that the long term uptrend ribbon appeared to be “doing its job so far, that is, helping prices to claw back from those lows for now”.

I proposed that only a strong demand-side candle would confirm the hold of the long term uptrend ribbon, and therefore restart the long term uptrend. That candle occurred in the form of 18 Nov’s long white candle with a high close.

From there, it has been a steady flow of modest demand-side candles – most importantly – taking out the potential impediment of the dynamic supply we’d ordinarily expect at the short term downtrend ribbon (✅).

You may remember my opinion on bounces. V-shaped bounces are those most likely to stick. This bounce is looking suitably V-shaped to me = ✅.

A bounce that sticks really should also close strongly at greater than the balance point of the decline (for me, this is the half-way point of the peak-to-trough move).

(2708.7 + 2541.5) / 2 = 2625.1. Yesterday’s close was 2674.9 – so ✅ on that item.

In conclusion, I submit that this is indeed a decent and credible bounce for gold. I can’t see anything in the technicals at this stage indicating it cannot continue.

I would, however, watch the candles very closely from here. For long-suffering readers of ChartWatch, you know exactly the fingerprints of excess supply to watch for: black-bodied candles and or upward pointing shadows – the longer – the greater the indication.

Watch particularly, the top of the major supply-side candle set on 6 Nov at 2758.8. It’s where the supply-side really took control last time – it’s possible there remains a degree of latent supply up there.

Really, given how many traders I expect got caught out by the US election result – arguably a surprise worst case scenario for gold – it would not surprise me to find a substantial amount of latent supply near the 2708.7 high.

I put to you there’s a wad of traders regretting getting stuck in the market at those highs, and who’ve been praying for gold to return there so they may undo their mistakes at break-even.

Demand is 2541.5-2572.5. A close below there is “kill the long term uptrend” kinda stuff…

Cameco Corporation (TSX: CCO)

Cameco Corporation (TSX-CCO) chart 21 November 2024
The best looking chart in global uranium stocks just got better (click here for full size image)

Yesterday, I published and article covering recent developments, future aspirations, and detailed technical analysis of the Top 10 ASX and three of the world’s most influential uranium stocks. Add in a few local and international ETF’s. You can read the article here, or skip straight to the video containing the technical analysis here.

Hands down, the strongest uptrend was owned by Canada’s Cameco, the world’s second biggest uranium producer.

I note last night’s strong demand-side candle continued solid and well-established prevailing short and long term uptrends. These trends are complimented by rising peaks and rising troughs, as well as a clear predominance of demand-side candles. These are three great indicators of demand-side control.

So, while we’re on the subject of checking things…✅✅✅

How high can Cameco’s share price go. 🤔

You really are asking the wrong guy…because I wouldn’t have a clue.

I am a trend follower not a trend prognosticator.

I can see the trend. I can measure its strength using my methodology (which I have taught to you). But, alas, I cannot see the future.

So: 1. I don’t try to predict it. And 2. I don’t worry about it.

In my experience, if I follow the trend I have the highest probability of success. I know I won’t succeed every time. I know there will inevitably be even prolonged periods where my approach is at odds with the market.

I cop this.

Because I know that if I stick with my methodology, if I manage my risk meticulously (cut my losses quickly without fear of missing out or other emotional hang ups) – and ride my winners to their full conclusion – then over the long run I will come out in front.

Get the probability part of the equation right and the profitability part will take care of itself. The greatest probability lies with following the trend and believing and trying my hardest to ensure that no single investing outcome matters.

Cameco will go up as long as it goes up – of that we can both be sure. But I am also sure that when those fingerprints of excess supply do finally grip these prevailing uptrends, I’ll be ready to take action!


Economy

Today

  • AUS Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) October

    • 49.4 vs 47.3 in September (revised up from 46.6)

    • Readings below 50 indicate contraction in the sector, so the Australian manufacturing sector contracted slightly in October, but at a smaller rate than in September (which itself was not as bad as originally thought)

  • AUS Flash Services PMI October: 49.6 vs 51.0 in September (revised higher from 50.6)

    • Contrasting, the Australian services sector fell into contraction in October - reversing growth in September

Later this week

Friday

  • 19:15 EUR Various countries Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs October (Germany: Manufacturing forecast 43.1 vs 43.0 in September & Services 51.8 forecast vs 51.6 in September; Eurozone: Manufacturing forecast no change at 46.0 & Services forecast no change at 51.6)

Saturday

  • 01:45 US Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) October (was 47.3 in September) & Flash Services PMI October (was 51.0 in September)


Latest News


Interesting Movers

Trading higher

Trading lower

  • -12.4% Wisetech Global (WTC) - Update to FY25 Guidance and Update on Board Review

  • -9.5% Megaport (MP1) - AGM Addresses from the Chair and CEO

  • -6.8% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) - No news, generally weaker ASX lithium sector today on a resumption of falls in lithium minerals prices in China today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends list 🔎📈

  • -6.0% Cettire (CTT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends list 🔎📈

  • -5.5% Audinate Group (AD8) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends list 🔎📈

  • -5.4% Latin Resources (LRS) - Tied to PLS via the all-scrip takeover in place

  • -3.8% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - No news, ditto weaker ASX lithium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular Feature in ChartWatch ASX Daily Scans Downtrends list 🔎📈


Broker Notes

  • The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.04

    • Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $5.60

  • Abacus Group (ABG)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.35

  • Adairs (ADH)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.85 from $2.50

  • AGL Energy (AGL)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.40 from $11.28

  • Amcor (AMC)

    • Retained at hold at Citi; Price Target: $17.00

    • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $16.65

  • Accent Group (AX1)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.80 from $2.50

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.47 from $2.57

    • Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $2.35 from $2.29

    • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $2.50

    • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.75

    • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.40

    • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.53

  • BHP Group (BHP)

    • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $46.85

  • City Chic Collective (CCX)

    • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.14 from $0.16

  • CSL (CSL)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $345.00

  • Cettire (CTT)

    • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.45 from $2.00

  • Elders (ELD)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.75

  • Electro Optic Systems (EOS)

    • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.00 from $2.80

  • Hansen Technologies (HSN)

    • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $5.10

    • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $7.20

  • Harvey Norman (HVN)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.80

  • Ikegps Group (IKE)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.94

  • JB HI-FI (JBH)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $98.00 from $87.00

  • Kogan.Com (KGN)

    • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.20

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $4.20

  • Lovisa (LOV)

    • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $31.00 from $33.00

    • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.95

  • Mineral Resources (MIN)

    • Upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi; Price Target: $35.00

  • Megaport (MP1)

    • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $10.15

  • Medibank Private (MPL)

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.85

  • Maxiparts (MXI)

    • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.60

  • NIB (NHF)

    • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.45

  • Propel Funeral Partners (PFP)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.80

  • Paragon Care (PGC)

    • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.52

    • Retained to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.54 from $0.46

  • Premier Investments (PMV)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $38.00

  • Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

    • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $26.00 from $23.00

  • PWR Holdings (PWH)

    • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $9.20 from $11.00

  • Qantas Airways (QAN)

    • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.50

  • Qube (QUB)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.45 from $4.40

  • Retail Food Group (RFG)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.11

  • SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

    • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $2.15 from $1.80

  • Solvar (SVR)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.48 from $1.30

    • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $1.45 from $1.38

  • Tasmea (TEA)

    • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $3.60 from $2.25

  • Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

    • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $12.20

  • Universal Store (UNI)

    • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.85

  • WEB Travel Group (WEB)

    • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.70

  • Worley (WOR)

    • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $18.00

  • Wisetech Global (WTC)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $124.50

    • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $100.00

  • Xero (XRO)

    • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $198.00


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
EWC Energy World Corp... $0.023 +43.75%
DEV DEVEX Resources Ltd $0.145 +31.82%
BEL Bentley Capital Ltd $0.013 +30.00%
SP3 Spectur Ltd $0.019 +26.67%
RFT Rectifier Technol... $0.015 +25.00%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
KP2 Kore Potash Plc $0.049 -19.67%
ERW Errawarra Resourc... $0.061 -16.44%
LYK Lykos Metals Ltd $0.016 -15.79%
PR2 Piche Resources Ltd $0.12 -14.29%
TMS Tennant Minerals Ltd $0.012 -14.29%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
WLD Wellard Ltd $0.08 +9.59%
PHX Pharmx Technologi... $0.069 +6.15%
SLC Superloop Ltd $2.14 +5.94%
PTR Petratherm Ltd $0.19 +5.56%
VUL Vulcan Energy Res... $7.01 +5.41%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
LYK Lykos Metals Ltd $0.016 -15.79%
TMS Tennant Minerals Ltd $0.012 -14.29%
JLL Jindalee Lithium Ltd $0.23 -13.21%
3PL 3P Learning Ltd $0.75 -11.77%
RAU Resouro Strategic... $0.205 -10.87%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
AN3PI Australia and New... $104.49 +0.31%
PCI Perpetual Credit ... $1.155 -3.35%
WVOL Ishares MSCI Worl... $41.88 +0.96%
IPX Iperionx Ltd $4.40 +4.76%
GCI Gryphon Capital I... $2.04 +0.49%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
WLE Wam Leaders Ltd $1.235 -0.80%
RSG Resolute Mining Ltd $0.405 +0.62%
NDO Nido Education Ltd $0.725 +0.69%
LYC Lynas Rare EARTHS... $6.80 -1.02%
DUG DUG Technology Ltd $1.505 -3.53%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Carl Capolingua

Content Editor

Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.

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