Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 hits one-week high + A2 Milk, Lovisa trading updates

ASX 200 futures are trading 74 points higher (+0.88%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

Major US benchmarks continued to bounce closer towards all-time highs, Nvidia weathered a volatile post-earnings session, the market was hit with an avalanche of cautious Fedspeak, A2 Milk lifts its FY25 revenue growth guidance, Lovisa reports a mixed year-to-date trading update and Fulcrum Lithium is set to list at 10:30 am.

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 recovers from a wobbly start to finish near session highs (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher and near best levels

• Equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the official benchmark by 73 bps amid some weakness from big tech

• Nvidia finished around breakeven after a volatile post-earnings session, trading between +4.8% and -3.5%

• Trump driven stock market rally starts to fade as tariffs, deficits and stretched valuations give Wall Street pause (WSJ)

• Investment grade and high yield bond spreads to remain tight in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs (BBG)

• Strength in corporate earnings and in US economy should keep market rising through 2025, says JPMorgan (BBG)

• Fed rate cuts will prompt US$2tn exodus from money-market funds, according to Apollo (YH)

STOCKS

• Nvidia's Q4 guidance bit short of bullish forecasts, Blackwell in full production amid strong demand outlook (BBG)

• Snowflake shares soar 32% after FY revenue guidance tops forecasts, inks deal with AI firm Anthropic to build cloud service (RT)

• MicroStrategy shares dip 16% after short report from Citron (BBG)

• Automakers hoping to convince Trump to keep EV regulations largely intact (NYT)

• DoJ expected to ask a judge to force Google to diverse from one or more core products, including Chrome and Android (AX)

• Starbucks mulls options for China business, including selling stake (BBG)

• Apple sales fall during China's Single's Day shopping festival while Huawei sells more of its smartphones (Reuters)

• Adani's Gautam Adani indicted in US over bribery allegations (FT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• NY Fed's Williams sees inflation cooling and rates falling further (RT)

• Richmond Fed's Barkin warns US is more vulnerable to inflationary shocks than in the past, says the Fed should not try to preemptively adjust rates ahead of possible policy changes (FT)

• Fed Governor Bowman prefers cautious stance on rate cuts, Cook does not explicitly endorse December cut (RT)

• Boston Fed's Collins believes more rate cuts needed, but in careful manner (BBG)

• BOE's Mann says cutting rates by 100 bps over next year would fan inflation (BBG)

POLITICS & GEOPOLITICS

• Ukraine's air force says Russia fired ICBM, stoking fears of escalating tensions (FT)

• Tensions between Russia and the West escalate sharply; could be game changing before Trump's return (AX)

• Biden administration told Congress it plans to cancel $4.65B in debt owed by Ukraine (BBG)

• China's announced series of policy measures aimed at boosting the country's foreign trade amid worries over Trump tariffs (RT)

ECONOMY

• US weekly jobless claims at seven-month low (RT)

• Taiwan export orders beat expectations on AI shipments, while China demand still soft (RT)

• Japan PM Ishiba to unveil $140bn stimulus package soon (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• A2 Milk guides to FY25 revenue growth to mid-to-high single digits vs. prior guidance of mid single-digit growth and 5.8% consensus (A2M)

• Electro Optic Systems sells EM Solutions to Cohort for $144m, EM was acquired in 2019 at ~$26m and net proceeds will be used to support the company’s core business, including counter-drone market (EOS)

• Lendlease Chairman John Gillam discloses purchase of ~131k shares, beneficially owns 145k shares after the transaction (LLC)

• Lovisa reports FYTD (20 weeks) sales up 10% year-on-year, comparable store sales up 1.0% – Macquarie forecasts 1H25 revenue to grow 12% so potentially a little soft but still a few weeks to go (LOV)

• Resolute Mining confirms CEO and two other employees have been released in Mali after signing protocol agreement earlier this week, which includes two $80m settlements (RSG)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Tech: Global X Cloud Computing ETF soared 4.3% overnight. The ETF's breakout on 5-Nov to a seven-month high coincided with a move out from local names like Xero, Wisetech and Technology One.

• Uranium: Global X Uranium ETF up 3.5% overnight to a fresh one-month high. Local uranium names have underperformed international names on the past few weeks, so it will be interesting to see if they can catch a bid.

• IPOs: Construction business Symal debuted yesterday and finished the session at $1.85 (which is exactly its IPO offer price). Interested to see how this trades over the coming days/weeks, given the slow start of other construction/engineering peers like Alfabs and Tasmea. Today, we have Fulcrum Lithium making its ASX debut at 10:30 am. The company owns a portfolio of lithium exploration projects in Nevada.

• GQG Partners: Shares tumbled 19.3% on Thursday after billionaire Gautam Adani was charged in the US over alleged $250m bribery plot. GQG has invested a significant portion of its funds in Adani companies, which surged nearly 170% over the past year. While the exact percentage of GQG funds invested in Adani is not explicitly stated, they are a top 15 sub-holder in Adani Enterprises.

BROKER MOVES

• MinRes upgraded to Neutral from Sell; target remains $35 (CITI)

• Fri 22 Nov: N1 Holdings (N1H) – 2.54%, Orica (ORI) – 1.54%, WAM Strategic Value (WAR) – 0.87%

• Mon 25 Nov: None

• Tue 26 Nov: Newmont (NEM) – 0.40%

• Wed 27 Nov: ALS (ALQ) – 1.23%, GrainCorp (GNC) – 3.00%

• Thu 28 Nov: Red Hill Minerals (RHI) – 7.03%, Technology One (TNE) – 0.59%

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN), HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Listing: Fulcrum Lithium at 10:30 am

• Earnings: Select Harvest (SHV)

• AGMs: A2 Milk (A2M), Arena REIT (ARF), Lovisa (LOV), NextDC (NXT), Washington H Soul Pattinson (SOL), Wisetech (WTC)

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 9:30 am: Japan Inflation Rate (Oct)

• 5:00 pm: UK Retail Sales (Oct)

• 6:30 pm: Germany Manufacturing and Services PMI (Nov)