Evening Wrap: ASX 200 lower as iron ore miners slip, Lithium prices surge, Gold miners under pressure

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 42.5 points lower, down 0.49%.

In a nutshell:

• A relatively weak session, with 130 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (65%) flat or lower, and seven of eleven sectors finishing in the red

• Materials led declines at -1.60% (after a strong weekly performance) while Energy provided support with gains amid rising oil prices and optimism over US trade talks

• The Index finished the week 1.0% lower, capping off a choppy period marked by limited directional momentum and mixed performance

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 closed down 42.5 points (Source: Market Index)

Markets

• Iron ore softness weighs on miners: Singapore iron ore futures slipped, weighing on heavyweight iron ore miners Fortescue (-3.4%), BHP (-1.9%) and Rio Tinto (-0.8%). The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index was up as much as 11% month-to-date, with gains now easing to 8.0%.

• Energy sector strength: Woodside Energy surged 3.7%, largely thanks to its better-than-expected June quarter activities report on Thursday, and strong FY26 guidance.

• Banking sector weakness continues: The Big Four Banks were down as much as 1% intraday, finished the session down between 0.3% and 0.8%. The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index is trading near its lowest level since June 3.

• Gold miners under pressure: The sector finished broadly lower, led by Pantoro (-5.1%), Bellevue Gold (-4.4%) and Genesis Minerals (-4.1%). Gold prices slipped 0.6% overnight and down a further 0.3% on Friday to US$3,356 an ounce. Newmont (+3.8%) managed to buck the trend after its Q2 earnings topped market expectations, with adjusted net income of US$1.6 billion, beating consensus expectations by 23%

• Defence stocks retreat: High-flying defence stocks like Droneshield tumbled 10%, now around 36% from last week's record highs of $4.10.

• Lithium prices surge: Chinese lithium carbonate futures are currently up 8% to 80,620 yuan a tonne, prices have now rallied 37% in the past month. Despite another strong daily price move, lithium names were relatively flat, with Pilbara Minerals up 1.5%, while Liontown slipped 2.0%.

Economy

• Trump tariff escalation: US President threatened blanket tariffs of 15-20% on most trading partners and 35% on Canadian goods from August 1.

• Corporate earnings momentum: Reporting season begins in earnest next week with Pilbara Minerals among the first major companies reporting on Wednesday.

• NAB compliance resolution: AUSTRAC cancelled NAB's enforceable undertaking after fixes to anti-money laundering procedures, though the regulator said this "doesn't give the business a clean bill of health.

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +25.64% Coronado Global Resources CRN – Target raised by multiple brokers

• +9.62% Titomic TTT – Completes $50m placement at 25 cps

• +9.21% Regal Partners RPL – FUM update, 1H25 profit upgrade

• +4.93% GR Engineering Services GNG – No news

• +3.72% Woodside Energy WDS – Target raised by multiple brokers

Trading lower

• -9.79% Droneshield DRO – No news, sharp pullback for defence stocks

• -7.60% Elsight ELS – No news

• -5.27% Electro Optic Systems EOS – No news, sharp pullback for defence stocks

• -5.09% AMP AMP – No news, financials sector pullback

Broker Notes

ARN Media (A1N)

• Retained at Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $0.65 from $0.70

Abacus Group (ABG)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.35

Aeris Resources (AIS)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.35

AML3D (AL3)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.35

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.35

Alcidion Group (ALC)

• Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.13 from $0.11

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $40.00 from $46.00

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.73

Bapcor (BAP)

• Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.15 from $4.99

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.90 from $5.43

• Downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $3.05 from $5.65

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.80 from $5.85

• Downgraded to Hold from Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.70 from $5.95

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.00 from $5.30

• Upgraded to Outperform from Sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.50 from $5.50

Breville Group (BRG)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $32.10

BWP Trust (BWP)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.40

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $36.00 from $34.80

Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.40

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.19

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.19 from $0.17

Calix (CXL)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.70

Catalyst Metals (CYL)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $7.90 from $8.00

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.80

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Upgraded to Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85 from $1.45

• Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.85 from $1.45

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.98 from $1.61

Fenix Resources (FEX)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.40 from $0.41

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at Neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $15.50 from $15.10

• Retained at Hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $17.50 from $16.00

• Retained at Overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $20.00

• Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00 from $15.00

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1860.00 from $18.60

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.60 from $19.45

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $20.00

• Retained at Outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $20.00 from $19.00

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

Graincorp (GNC)

• Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.45 from $7.85

Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.00

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.35 from $8.40

ikeGPS Group (IKE)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.30

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.85 from $4.40

Karoon Energy (KAR)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.80

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.80

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.50

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.80

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at Sell at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $7.50

• Retained at Overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $11.50 from $10.25

• Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $9.65 from $8.80

• Retained at Sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.50

• Retained at Outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $11.05 from $11.80

• Retained at Buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $12.50 from $10.00

• Upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $10.00 from $4.90

• Retained at Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.00 from $8.00

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.00 from $10.50

• Retained at Sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.80

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.30

Megaport (MP1)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.00

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citi; Price Target: $200.00 from $177.00

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $216.00

• Retained at Accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $245.00 from $210.00

Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC)

• Retained at Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $1.70

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.90 from $2.00

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $95.00

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.70

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at Neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $20.00 from $20.50

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $24.10 from $23.95

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.00 from $27.00

News Corporation (NWS)

• Retained at Positive at E&P; Price Target: $65.00 from $64.80

NEXTDC (NXT)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $18.35

Oohmedia (OML)

• Retained at Positive at E&P; Price Target: $1.80

Qoria (QOR)

• Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.52

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $221.90 from $206.80

Regis Healthcare (REG)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.60 from $8.25

Reece (REH)

• Upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $14.30 from $16.80

SEEK (SEK)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $28.50

• Retained at Positive at E&P; Price Target: $28.00 from $27.80

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

Step One Clothing (STP)

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.50 from $2.25

Strike Energy (STX)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.16 from $0.25

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.20

Seven West Media (SWM)

• Retained at Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $0.20 from $0.19

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.40

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.00 from $24.00

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $25.00 from $23.30

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.00

Scans