ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 25th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, July 25. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 set for weekly decline

[1:58 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is down 26 points (-0.30%) but has recovered from session lows of -0.57%, delivering a relatively resilient performance given the headwinds from its two largest sectors. Materials are leading the decline at -1.60%, while Financials are down a more modest -0.42%, together weighing heavily on the broader index.

However, strength across Energy, Telecommunications, Technology and Healthcare is providing support, preventing a steeper market selloff.

Despite today's recovery from lows, the index remains on track to finish the week 0.85% lower, capping off a choppy five-day period marked by limited directional momentum and mixed sector performance.

Looking ahead, reporting season is set to provide the market's next major catalyst, beginning in earnest next week with Pilbara Minerals among the first major companies to report on Wednesday.

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Chinese lithium futures continue to skyrocket

[12:45 pm] Chinese lithium futures opened around 4% higher at 11:00 am AEST, currently up 7.9% to 80,480 yuan a tonne. Prices have now rallied 39% from the mid-June low of 58,4000 yuan.

Interestingly, the move isn't drawing much of a reaction from local lithium stocks, with Pilbara Minerals and Liontown up 0.8% and 0.2% respectively.

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Banks broadly lower

[12:39 pm] The Big Four Banks are all down around 1%, dragging the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index 0.69% lower to its lowest level since 3-Jun.

The Index is now 5% away from its 25-Jun record high.

S&P/ASX 200 Financials chart (Source: TradingView)

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Defence stocks retreat

[12:35 pm] Soaring defence stocks have pulled back sharply, notably:

• Droneshield down 10.6%, currently sitting around its 20-day moving average and 36% away from its $4.10 all-time high (16-Jul)

• Electro Optic Systems down 6.0%, also sitting around its 20-day moving average

• Austal down 0.5%

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Small caps making moves

[10:41 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:39 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Newmont Q2 earnings call highlights

[10:38 am] Here are the key takeaways from Newmont's Q2 earnings call:

• Capital discipline remains front and centre, with a strong internal focus on share buybacks (additional US$3bn approved), fixed dividend (US$0.25/share), and no M&A appetite; management reiterated its shareholder-focused capital allocation strategy.

• Copper is a key growth pillar, with longer-term expansion plans centred on organic projects like Red Chris rather than external deals.

• H2 2025 free cash flow expected to remain steady, though capital and reclamation spending will step up, particularly at Cadia and Tanami; 51% of annual development capital is planned for H2.

• Production guidance was held despite Q2 outperformance, with management flagging caution around H2 grades at Cadia and Peñasquito; gold all-in sustaining costs remain in line with full-year guidance.

• Lihir operational improvements are tracking well with minimal near-term capex; major performance uplift expected into 2026 following additional investment.

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Regal upgrades 1H25 guidance

[10:10 am] Regal reported June 2025 total funds under management (FUM) of $17.7 billion, up 7.0% vs. a quarter ago.

"The increase in FUM was driven by a combination of continued net client inflows and positive investment performance across a wide range of investment strategies," the company said in a statement.

Regal upgraded its performance fee revenue forecast for 1H25 to "at least $40 million", up from previous forecasts of "at least $35 million" announced on 3 July 2025.

It also expects 1H25 normalised NPAT to be "at least $40 million."

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Metals X continues to print cash

[9:48 am] Metals X reported June quarter Renison tin production (100% basis) of 2,724 tonnes, which delivered:

• Revenue of $136.4 million (vs. March quarter: $123.0m)

• EBITDA of $67.05 million (vs. March quarter: $56.2m)

• Net cash flow of $44.2 million

The $580 million market cap company is currently sitting on $230.5 million cash. The quarterly reported noted: "At quarter end, Metals X has invested $175 million, representing 73% of its available cash balance into (5) 90-day term deposits earning an average interest rate of approximately 4.51% per annum."

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Metals X (MLX)

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Citi downgrades Northern Star

[9:43 am] Citi downgraded Northern Star to Neutral (from Buy) and lowered its target price to $18.00 (from $21.00) after Thursday's quarterly activities report.

"While the result didn’t bring clarity on post FY26 capex/costs, there was some colour on KCGM spend and we add ~$165m to our FY27/28 capex and further cut our EBITDA by 3-7%," noted the analysts.

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Whitehaven hits FY25 production guidance

[9:38 am] Whitehaven finished the year on a strong note, with June quarter ROM production up 15% quarter-on-quarter to 10.6 million tonnes. For the full-year, the company delivered:

• Managed ROM coal production 39.1Mt vs guidance 35.0-39.5Mt (5.0% beat at midpoint)

• Managed coal sales 30.2Mt vs guidance 28.0-31.5Mt (1.5% beat)

• Equity coal sales 26.5Mt vs guidance 24.3-27.4Mt (2.5% beat)

• Unit cost (ex-royalties) A$139/t vs guidance A$140-155/t (5.8% better than guidance)

The stock is up 13.9% week-to-date after China ordered local mines that have exceeded production quotas to suspend production.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Whitehaven (WHC)

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Dimerix reports June quarter cash flow

[9:33 am] Interesting to see Dimerix report some strong cash flows ($45.6 million) in the June quarter. This is widely expected given previous announcements.

Highlights for the quarter include:

• Signed exclusive license agreement with Amicus Therapeutics for DMX-200 in the US, total potential deal value of up to US$590m, with US$30m upfront payment received in May 2025

• Fourth licensing deal for DMX-200, following Advanz Pharma (EU), Taiba (MENA), and Fuso (Japan), with combined potential value of ~A$1.4bn across all deals and over A$65m received to date

• Strong cash position of A$68.3m as at 30 June 2025

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Dimerix (DXB)

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Steadfast CFO to retire

[9:28 am] Steadfast Group's CFO Stephen Humphrys announced his intentions to retire, effective 31 August 2025, for personal reasons which are both health and family-related.

"In the interim, Hannah Lee, the current Group Financial Controller, will become Acting CFO, whilst we continue an executive search," noted the company.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Steadfast Group (SDF)

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Broker upgrades, downgrades and target changes

[9:25 am] Here are a few notable broker updates from this morning:

• Bapcor downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $3.80 from $5.85 (MQG)

• Bell Potter downgraded to Hold from Buy but target up to $1.85 from $1.45 (BP)

• Fortescue downgraded to Underperform from Neutral but target up to $16 from $15 (MQG)

• Graincorp upgraded to Buy from Hold; target up to $8.45 from $7.85 (BP)

• Karoon Energy downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $1.80 from $2.15 (MQG)

• Lynas upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $10.00 from $4.90 (JPM)

• Reece upgraded to Neutral from Sell but target lowered to $14.30 from $16.80 (GS)

• Strike Energy downgraded to Neutral from Buy; target cut to $0.16 from $0.25 (GS)

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Cuscal CFO to step down

[9:15 am] Cuscal's CFO Sean O'Donoghue has given the Board notice of his intention to retire in the second half of 2025.

"Cuscal has undertaken an extensive search as part of its orderly succession planning and is pleased to announce the appointment of Jennifer Brice as Chief Financial Officer effective 27 October 2025," the company said in a statement.

Brice is currently the CFO at Australian Payments Plus, and prior to that she held senior finance and business roles at Origin Energy, CBA and Woolworths.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Cuscal (CCL)

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Analysts impressed by Fortescue, but struggle to see much upside

[9:10 am] Fortescue delivered a clean sweep of better-than-expected numbers for the June quarter, FY25 and FY26 guidance on Thursday. To recap the key FY25 numbers:

• Iron ore shipments of 55.2Mt vs. 54.1Mt ests (2.1% beat)

• Ore mined of 64.3Mwmt vs. 61.1Mwmt ests (5.2% beat)

• Hematite C1 cost of $16.29/wmt vs. $18.1/wmt ests (10.3% better than expected)

While FY26 guidance was upgraded to feature higher production and lower costs, including:

• Iron ore shipments of 195-205Mt vs. prior 190-200Mt (2.6% increase at the midpoint)

• Iron bridge contribution of 10-12Mt vs. prior 5-9Mt (57% increase at midpoint)

• Hematite C1 cost guidance of $17.50-18.50 vs. prior $18.50-19.75 (5.9% improvement)

• Capital expenditure (FMG Metals) of $3.3-4.0bn vs. prior $3.5-3.8bn (no change in midpoint)

• Fortescue energy capex of $300m vs. prior $400m (25% improvement)

Analysts were broadly impressed by the operationally strong year. Notable updates include:

• RBC Capital maintained Outperform, raised target by 5% from $19.00 to $20.00. Highlighted better-than-expected shipment volumes and cost base, driving material FY26 earnings upgrades.

• Goldman Sachs maintained Neutral, raised target by 3% from $15.10 to $15.50. Noted positive unit cost surprise but flagged softer iron ore realisations and upcoming capex requirements.

• JPMorgan maintained Overweight, target unchanged at $20.00. Pointed to record hematite run rate and solid FY26 guidance but warned sector rally may be sentiment-driven.

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Bapcor faces steep target price cuts

[9:05 am] Bapcor shares tumbled 28% on Thursday after its preliminary FY25 results flagged weaker-than-expected revenue and profits, $48-50 million in write downs, three board member resignations and a notable sales slowdown in the key May-June trading period.

The stock faced steep analysts target price cuts this morning, including:

• RBC Capital upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform, lowered target by 18% from $5.50 to $4.50. Highlighted trade segment weakness but sees wholesale consolidation as a long-term margin positive and balance sheet as intact.

• Macquarie downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, lowered target by 35% from $5.85 to $3.80. Cited weak trade sales and wholesale disruption, with limited FY26 visibility and cost out benefits potentially offset by reinvestment.

• Canaccord Genuity upgraded to Buy from Hold, lowered target by 17% from $4.99 to $4.15. Acknowledged board concerns but sees potential suitor interest in trade business and long-term strategic benefits.

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Newmont crushes Q2 earnings forecasts

[9:00 am] NYSE-listed Newmont shares climbed 4.0% in extended hours, following a broadly stronger-than-expected Q2 report. The key numbers include:

• Q2 revenue up 20% to $5.32bn vs. $4.85bn ests (9.7% beat)

• Q2 EPS up 150% to $1.43 (ex-items) vs. $1.16 ests (23.3% beat)

• Produced 1.5 million ounces of gold from core portfolio, as well as 36,000 tonnes of copper

• On track to meet FY25 guidance, including 5.9 million ounces of attributable production and AISC of $1,630/oz

• Board authorised an additional US$3.0bn share repurchase program, to be executed at the company's discretion

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Newmont (NEM)

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Alphabet earnings top expectations

[8:50 am] Alphabet reported a better-than-expected Q2 result, with pretty much every metric beating analyst expectations. The key highlights include:

• Q2 revenues up 14% to $96.4 billion, accelerating from 12% growth in Q1

• Segments including Google Search, Youtube, Advertising and Cloud all recorded double-digit growth for the quarter, and ahead of analyst expectations

• Revenue beat market expectations 2.2%, Search grew 12% year-on-year vs. market expectations of 9%, Cloud revenues up 32% vs. 27% consensus

• FY25 capex guidance up by US$10bn to US$85bn to support data centre buildout

Despite the strong result, Alphabet shares finished the session up 0.8% and down from intraday highs of 3.9%.

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Good morning!

[8:35 am] ASX 200 futures are down 39pts (-0.45%) after a relatively weak lead from Wall Street, where breadth was negative, the Equal-weight S&P 500 fell (-0.32%) and benchmarks like the Dow and Russell too pulled back 0.70% and 1.36% respectively.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.