Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to push all-time highs, S&P 500 and Nasdaq log another record close

ASX 200 futures are up 23pts (+0.26%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit another fresh all-time high as Trump announced trade deals with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines

• Meme stocks like GoPro and Krispy Kreme recorded extreme volatility overnight, fading double digit gains

• Healthcare stocks are staging a massive comeback as the sector trades at its cheapest relative level in decades

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 gapped up, trended higher to close at best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished higher, closed near best levels, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at all-time highs

• Solid breadth with the Equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming the official benchmark by 5 bps, and strong performance for the defensive-Dow and small caps

• Today’s big story – Trump announced a US and Japan trade deal that features a 15% tariff (vs. 25% rate in tariff letter), EU and US nearing a deal involving a 15% tariff

• Meme stocks remain in focus, with Reddit's WallStreetBets focusing on names like GoPro, Krispy Kreme (BBG)

• Global healthcare stocks are cheapest in decades but in uncharted territory amid uncertainty over drug pricing policies (RT)

• JPMorgan strategists warn of stock market complacency amid rising earnings downgrades (BBG)

• Investors gain confidence as Trump signs trade deals, including a Japan agreement easing tariff concerns (BBG)

• Japan's Topix index nears record high after US trade deal, boosting stocks but impacting government bonds (BBG)

• Japan 40-year bond auction met with soft demand, bid-cover weakest since 2011 (BBG)

• Barclays urges caution on meme stocks like Kohl's and Opendoor, suggesting dispersion trades to manage volatility (BBG)

STOCKS

• Luxury brands have slowed pace of price increases amid pushback from wealthy consumers (FT)

• Apple and Google face UK antitrust scrutiny, new EU-style rules for software and app stores (FT)

• Texas Instruments (-13.3%) sales guidance underwhelms; order levels normalizing following early quarter front-loading (BBG)

• Tesla (-3.5% after hours) sales fell short of Wall Street expectations, with revenue down 12% to US$22.5bn,

• SAP (-4.1%) reports slightly disappointing cloud sales amid tariff concerns (BBG)

• Nokia (-7.5%) lowers 2025 profit guidance by up to €310m, citing weaker dollar and tariffs impact (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• BOJ Uchida reiterates rate hikes outlook (BBG)

• RBA forecast to cut three times by early 2026, up from two previously (BBG)

TARIFFS

• Trump announced a trade deal with Japan, to set a 15% levy on Japanese imports, down from 25% Trump had threatened in recent weeks, tariffs on Japanese autos and auto parts down to 15% (BGG)

• US-EU trade deal involving 15% tariff could be close but EU still working on package of possible retaliatory actions (FT)

• Trump announces US-Philippines trade deal involving military agreement, tariff cuts to 19% from 20% (CNBC)

• Trump announces agreement with Indonesia involving promises to buy more US products, lowered tariff rate of 19% (Reuters)

• Trump vows to use import restrictions to lower drug prices, threatening pharmaceutical companies with consequences (RTE)

ECONOMY

• Goldman Sachs predicts US tariffs will increase to 15%, impacting inflation and GDP growth negatively (BBG)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Australian Ethical portfolio manager Andy Gracey has resigned after a two-decade run (AFR)

• Lynas reports Q4 gross sales revenue of $170.2m vs. $161.0m ets, signs MoU with Korean manufacturer to develop a sustainable rare earth permanent magnet value chain in Malaysia (LYC)

• Regis Healthcare to acquire 4 premium aged care homes in South-East Queensland, expected to be EPS accretive in FY26, net cash outlay of $135m (REG)

• Santos set to receive binding bid from ADNOC and Carlyle in the coming weeks (The Aus)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Meme stocks: The meme stock craze on Wall Street, though not ASX-related, is flagging some degree of market complacency. Most of these names faded pretty hard overnight, with Krispy Kreme opening 38.5% higher but closing the session up just 4.6% (and down 5.0% after hours).

• Healthcare: Healthcare was the best performing S&P 500 sector by a wide margin, up 2.03%. The sector is coming back to life amid cheap valuations and a recent rotation into value. A name like CSL is trading at a five-month high and up 10% in the last eight sessions.

BROKER MOVES

• Challenger downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight but target up to $6.60 from $6.45 (MS)

• Iluka Resources downgraded to Neutral/High-Risk from Buy/High-Risk but target up to $5.30 from $5.20 (CITI)

• Paladin Energy upgraded to Neutral from Underweight; target up to $6.80 from $6.00 (JPM)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 24 Jul: None

• Fri 25 Jul: Alternative Investment Trust (AIQ) – $0.046

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: 360 Capital Group (TGP), 360 Capital REIT (TOT), ALS (ALQ), Steamships (SST)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Macquarie Group (MQG)

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 9:00 am: Australia Manufacturing and Services PMI (Jul)

• 5:30 pm: Germany Manufacturing and Services PMI (Jul)

• 6:30 pm: UK Manufacturing and Services PMI (Jul)

• 10:15 pm: ECB Interest Rate Decision (Ests: Hold at 2.15%)

• 11:45 pm: Manufacturing and Services PMI (Jul)