ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 24th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, July 24. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 3:00 pm AEST. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 lower, Healthcare stocks continue to shine

[3:00 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 is set to finish lower (-0.32%), having faded early gains of 0.26%.

Healthcare stocks have emerged as the standout performers, with the S&P/ASX 200 Healthcare Index up another 1.1% and up 8.5% this month alone. Though this rally has only just brought the index back to February levels.

Meanwhile the rest of the market is broadly lower, with all ten remaining sectors trading in negative territory. Breadth is relatively weak, with 135 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (68%) currently down or flat for the session.

The market continues to linger around record levels but healthcare's outperformance may suggest some selective rotation towards sectors offering attractive, relative valuations.

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Chinese lithium futures abruptly surge

[1:30 pm] Chinese lithium carbonate futures have aggressively rallied 7.5% to 77,000 yuan a tonne, reaching the highest level since March. Prices opened the Thursday session around breakeven.

Lithium names are now trading broadly higher, with the bellwether Pilbara Minerals up 3.0% to $1.88.

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Australian business output accelerates in July

[12:25 pm] Australian private sector output rose at its fastest pace since April 2022, according to the latest S&P Global data. Here are the key takeaways from the report:

• Business activity accelerated to a 27-month high, with the Composite PMI rising to 53.6 in July, up from 51.6 in June.

• Services led the rebound, posting the fastest growth in 16 months, while manufacturing output returned to expansion for the first time in three months.

• New orders surged, with overall demand rising at the fastest pace in 39 months, driven by both stronger domestic demand and successful business development efforts.

• Export orders remained weak, but the contraction was modest and less severe than June, with declines concentrated in manufacturing while services export demand stabilised.

• Employment rose, as businesses hired more staff to cope with rising workloads — contributing to a third straight month of reduced backlogs.

• Input cost inflation accelerated, especially in the services sector, pushing overall cost growth to a 3-month high. Manufacturing cost pressures eased slightly.

• Output prices rose at a faster pace, with firms increasingly passing higher input costs onto customers — suggesting renewed inflation pressures ahead.

• Business confidence slipped to an 8-month low, with firms citing increased uncertainty despite expansion plans and hopes for improved economic conditions.

Source: S&P Global

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Boss Energy bounces off session lows

[12:17 pm] Boss Energy sold off as much as 9.1% to $3.39 in early trade after CEO Duncan Craib announced his plans to step down from the role and transition into a Non-Executive Director position from 1 January 2026.

The stock is currently down just 2.8% to $3.73.

Mr Craib owns 1.04 million shares in the company. He previously sold 3.75 million shares on 24 May at $5.63 a piece.

Boss Energy intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Small caps making moves

[11:03 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top gainers and losers in early trade

[10:27 am] Here are the top S&P/ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade.

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Fortescue surges to five-month high

[10:18 am] Fortescue (+4.5%) is trading back at February levels after its June quarter report smashed analyst expectations. The company guided to solid production for FY26, alongside better-than-expected cost and capex guidances.

The key numbers include:

• Q4 Iron ore shipments of 55.2Mt vs. 54.1Mt ests (2.1% beat)

• Q4 Hematite C1 cost of $16.29/wmt vs. $18.1/wmt ests (10.3% better than expected)

• FY26 iron ore shipment guidance of 195-205Mt vs. prior 190-200Mt (2.6% increase at the midpoint)

• FY26 Hematite C1 cost guidance of $17.50-18.50 vs. prior $18.50-19.75 (5.9% improvement)

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Bapcor hits pandemic lows

[10:11 am] Bapcor opened 23% lower, briefly down as much as 31% to levels not seen since March 2020. As we noted earlier:

Bapcor expects total FY25 revenue to fall 1.4% to $1.94 billion vs. Citi estimates (Apr-25) of $2.04bn (growth of 0.5% or a 5.2% miss). Pro-forma NPAT for FY25 to be $81-82m, while Citi expected net profit of $94 million or a 13% miss at the midpoint.

The update also flagged $48-50 million of significant items and the resignation of directors Mark Bernhard, Brad Soller and James Todd.

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Boss Energy CEO Duncan Craib to step down

[9:55 am] Boss Energy's CEO Duncan Craib will step down from 30 September and transition into a Non-Executive Director role from 1 January 2026.

The company's current Chief Operating Officer Matt Dusci has been named as incoming CEO, effective 1 October.

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Macquarie provides Q1 update at AGM

[9:49 am] Macquarie expects net profits to fall in the first quarter, as improved performance from its banking and financial services segment and Macquarie Capital, was more than offset by lower contributions from Macquarie Asset Management and commodities trading. Here are the key numbers from its first-quarter update:

Macquarie asset management:

• AUM up 1% quarter-on-quarter to $945.8bn at 25-Jun

• Private Markets AUM up 3% to $401.6bn at 25-Jun

• Private Markets EUM at $221.2bn

• Public Investments AUM down 1% to $544.2bn at 25-Jun

Banking and financial services:

• Home loan portfolio up 6% to $150.2bn at 25-Jun

• Business Banking loan portfolio up 4% to $17.3bn at 25-Jun

• BFS deposits up 4% to $178.9bn at 25-Jun

• Funds on platform up 7% to $164.5bn at 25-Jun

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Macquarie (MQG)

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Bapcor earnings disappoint, May-June sales weak

[9:39 am] Bapcor has preannounced its unaudited FY25 results, which broadly missed market expectations. The company attributed this poor outcome to:

• Trade sales in May and June, the two largest trading months, were disappointing relative to expectations

• Significant disruption in the Specialist Wholesale segment due to integration of three businesses into the Auto Electrical Group, resulting in headcount reductions and ERP consolidations

• Continued challenging retail environment impacting the Retail segment, including lower spending on discretionary categories, competitor activity and changes to our promotional cycle

Bapcor expects total FY25 revenue to fall 1.4% to $1.94 billion vs. Citi estimates (Apr-25) of $2.04bn (growth of 0.5% or a 5.2% miss). Pro-forma NPAT for FY25 to be $81-82m, while Citi expected net profit of $94 million or a 13% miss at the midpoint.

The update also flagged $48-50 million of significant items including asset write offs ($6.9m), uncollectable receivables ($6.4m) and more. This will bring statutory net profit down to $31-34 million.

To add some perspective, Bapcor's Investor Day (Apr-25) provided indicative scorecards to track performance with FY30 (5-year CAGR) targets of revenue growth >5% and EBITDA growth of >10%.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Bapcor (BAP)

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Fortescue Q4 report crushes expectations

[9:28 am] Fortescue announced a bumper June quarter report and logged a record 198 million tonnes of iron ore shipments for FY25. Here are the key numbers:

• Iron ore shipments of 55.2Mt vs. 54.1Mt ests (2.1% beat)

• Ore mined of 64.3Mwmt vs. 61.1Mwmt ests (5.2% beat)

• Hematite C1 cost of $16.29/wmt vs. $18.1/wmt ests (10.3% better than expected)

Fortescue also bumped its FY26 guidance higher, to:

• Iron ore shipments of 195-205Mt vs. prior 190-200Mt (2.6% increase at the midpoint)

• Iron bridge contribution of 10-12Mt vs. prior 5-9Mt (57% increase at midpoint)

• Hematite C1 cost guidance of $17.50-18.50 vs. prior $18.50-19.75 (5.9% improvement)

• Capital expenditure (FMG Metals) of $3.3-4.0bn vs. prior $3.5-3.8bn (no change in midpoint)

• Fortescue energy capex of $300m vs. prior $400m (25% improvement)

Overall, a very strong outcome and consistent with some of the strong operational outcomes we've seen from peers like BHP and Rio Tinto.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Fortescue (FMG)

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Northern Star reports record free cash flow

[9:22 am] Northern Star announced its June quarter report, highlighting record free cash flow of $536 million and net mine cash flow of $1.18 billion.

This update contains no major surprises, as most numbers have already been outlined as part of an operational update earlier this month.

This update drove a sharp 8.6% selloff (7-Jul) due to:

• FY25 gold production of 1.63moz was in-line with guidance

• FY25 AISC was expected to fall within company guidance range of A$2,100-2,220 an ounce

• However, FY26 guidance of 1,700-1,850koz of gold sales at an AISC of A$2,300-2,700/oz was below market expectations, particuarly on the cost front

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Northern Star (NST)

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Fenix Resources on-track to tripe iron ore production

[9:17 am] Fenix Resources says its on track to lift its iron ore production from 1.5Mtpa to 4Mtpa this year, according to its June quarter report. During the quarter, the company delivered:

• Iron ore shipments totaling 760,000 wet metric tonnes vs. ~400,700 a year ago

• Shine C1 cash costs of A$51.8 a tonne

• Cash balance of $56.8m (vs. $54.9m a quarter ago)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Fenix Resources (FEX)

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Regis acquires four premium aged care homes

[9:09 am] Regis has signed a binding agreement to acquire 100% of Rockpool RAC, a privately-owned residential aged care provider.

The acquisition includes four premium residential aged care homes in South-East Queensland with 600 beds, all of which opened from 2019 onwards.

Regis expects a net cash outlay of $135 million for the acquisition, funded by existing cash.

The transaction is expected to be FY26 earnings accretive, with further growth anticipated in the medium-term.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Regis Healthcare (REG)

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Lynas signs MoU with Korean manufacturer, reports Q4 production

[9:05 am] Two announcements out of Lynas this morning.

Lynas signed an MoU with Korean manufacturer JS Link to develop a sustainable rare earth permanent magnet value chain in Malaysia. The partnership will seek to develop a 3,000 tonne capacity NdFeB permanent sintered magnet manufacturing facility near its Malaysia plant.

In the June quarter, Lynas reported sales of $170.2 million, up 24.5% year-on-year and 38% quarter-on-quarter. Total rare earth production surged 68% to 3,212 tonnes, reflecting new production lines at its Malaysia plant. Rare earth prices showed signs of improvement, with average quarterly selling price of A$60.2/kg vs. A$50.5/kg last quarter and A$42.3/kg a year ago.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

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Santos to receive binding bid in coming weeks

[9:00 am] The Australian reports that ADNOC and Carlyle have made some regulatory progress with FIRB and a binding offer is expected within the coming weeks.

The article flags that while PNG LNG is a good business, due diligence may have shown earnings not to be as high as the bidders initially anticipated, and gaining funding for PNG assets is challenging.

Source: The Australian

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Analysts take on Iluka Resources

[8:56 am] Iluka shares rallied 4.1% on Wednesday after its June quarter production report topped market expectations, with strong volumes across zircon, rutile, and synthetic rutile. However, average selling prices was a little softer-than-expected and revenue was weak due to a higher portion of lower value ZIC sold.

Analysts continued to flag soft near-term demand for mineral sands, with zircon pricing under pressure. Encouragingly, Iluka's progress at Balranald (rutile) and Eneabba (rare earths) was seen as on track.

Key analysts comments and changes include:

• UBS retained Neutral, raised target from $5.30 to $5.45. Production strength drove upgrades despite ongoing tariff uncertainty clouding zircon demand and noted Eneabba project risks.

• Goldman Sachs retained Buy, raised target from $5.40 to $6.50. Early achievement of FY ZIC targets and strong Eneabba progress offset revenue headwinds from sales mix shifts, with rare earth NAV uplift potential.

• Macquarie retained Outperform, lowered target from $6.50 to $6.30. Weak zircon market conditions and lagging sales volumes despite strong production metrics prompted the target reduction, though projects remain on track.

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Meme stock volatility

[8:52 am] Absolutely wild overnight session for meme stocks like Kohl's, Opendoor and Krispy Kreme. Here's the price action for Krispy Kreme:

• 21-Jun: Shares up 4.1%, nothing wild and still trading within recent ~$3 range

• 22-Jun: Shares surge 26.7% to $4.1 and volume was around 7x recent averages

• 23-Jun: Shares open 38.5% higher but finish the session up just 4.6%. Volume was 152.4m vs. 20-day average of 13.1m

Krispy Kreme daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Mixed earnings: Tesla, SAP, Texas Instruments

[8:45 am] High-profile reporters largely sold off overnight as results missed market expectations (or markets simply opted to sell into strength).

SAP delivered a mixed Q2 2025 result with earnings beating estimates but revenue missing expectations, leading to share price weakness (-4.1%) despite strong cloud growth momentum.

• EPS beat: €1.50 vs €1.63 estimate (+37% growth)

• Revenue miss: Total revenue up 9% YoY but below expectations

• Key themes: Cloud revenue surged 24% (28% at constant currency), cloud backlog up 22% to €18.1 billion, driven by strong AI capabilities and disciplined cost control

Tesla (-5.0% after hours) missed on both Q2 2025 earnings and revenue expectations but provided some optimism with plans for a more affordable model in the second half of 2025.

• Revenue miss: Down 12% to $22.50 billion vs $22.74 billion expected

• EPS miss: Down 16% to $0.40 vs $0.43 expected

• Key themes: Vehicle deliveries fell 13.5% to 384,122 units, second straight quarterly decline despite aggressive discounting and low-cost financing

Texas Instruments (-13.3%) delivered a strong Q2 2025 beat with robust revenue growth and expanding margins driven by industrial market recovery.

• Revenue beat: $4.45 billion, up 16% YoY

• EPS beat: $1.41 including 2-cent benefit not in original guidance

• Key themes: Operating profit surged 25% to $1.56 billion with margins expanding 250 bps to 35.1%, driven by significant gains in analog and embedded processing segments

• Outlook disappoints: Q3 revenue guidance of $4.45-4.8bn and EPS guidance of $1.48 was slightly below some analyst estimates

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Good morning!

[8:36 am] ASX 200 futures are up 23pts (+0.26%), suggesting the market will open at fresh all-time highs. This follows a strong lead from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged yet another record high.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.