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Market Wraps
/Evening Wrap: ASX 200 logs narrow loss as property and tech stocks rise, consumer and gold stocks struggle
Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: ASX 200 logs narrow loss as property and tech stocks rise, consumer and gold stocks struggle
Mon 09 Sep 24, 5:35pm (AEDT)
Stocks in article
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 25.3 points lower, down 0.32%.
"It could have been worse" is the takeaway from today's trade on the Australian share market, certainly, given leads from overseas stocks and commodities were uninspiring on Friday to say the least.
We managed to claw back the bulk of our early session losses to close with only a modest 0.23% loss, and some of that can be accounted for by stocks going ex-dividend.
There were a few interesting stock-specific moves, though, many sparked by the upcoming September Quarter rebalancing of the major ASX indices. We've got all the details on those, plus details on anything else that moved, as well as broker updates, the key economic data events for the week, and technical analysis on US stock indices in ChartWatch...so...
Let's dive in!
Today in Review
Mon 09 Sep 24, 5:19pm (AEST)
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Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 25.3 points lower at 7,988.1, 0.87% from its session low and 0.32% from its high. Despite the narrowing of the loss in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a dismal 90 to 172.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) (+0.88%) was the best performing sector today, likely in response to a continued fall in market yields, but likely also due to a 2.2% gain in ChartWatch Scans Uptrends list regular Stockland Group (ASX: SGP). Stockland announced that it was in talks with the ACCC regarding the divestment of a residential community in regional NSW.
Also dodging losses today was the Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.40%) sector – another major beneficiary of lower market yields. The only other two other sectors two dodge losses today are more on the defensive side of the risk ledger – Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.26%) and Utilities (XUJ) (+0.17%).
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Cettire (CTT) | $1.725 | +$0.26 | +17.7% | +54.0% | -46.3% |
Appen (APX) | $1.245 | +$0.165 | +15.3% | +54.7% | -11.1% |
Opthea (OPT) | $0.610 | +$0.075 | +14.0% | +48.8% | +50.5% |
Anteris Technologies (AVR) | $10.85 | +$0.86 | +8.6% | -23.9% | -48.1% |
Hotel Property Investments (HPI) | $3.74 | +$0.26 | +7.5% | +9.7% | +23.0% |
Aurelia Metals (AMI) | $0.150 | +$0.01 | +7.1% | -11.8% | +53.1% |
Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) | $4.81 | +$0.31 | +6.9% | +24.0% | +38.6% |
ARB Corporation (ARB) | $42.35 | +$2.5 | +6.3% | +6.9% | +29.3% |
Catapult Group International (CAT) | $2.20 | +$0.12 | +5.8% | +3.3% | +94.7% |
Humm Group (HUM) | $0.785 | +$0.04 | +5.4% | +61.9% | +78.4% |
Gentrack Group (GTK) | $10.00 | +$0.47 | +4.9% | +8.9% | +150.0% |
Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) | $0.435 | +$0.02 | +4.8% | +31.8% | +117.5% |
Meteoric Resources (MEI) | $0.090 | +$0.004 | +4.7% | -10.0% | -62.5% |
Yancoal Australia (YAL) | $5.54 | +$0.24 | +4.5% | -21.1% | +8.2% |
Pantoro (PNR) | $0.120 | +$0.005 | +4.3% | +36.4% | +155.3% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | $0.620 | +$0.025 | +4.2% | -29.1% | -77.2% |
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | $7.04 | +$0.28 | +4.1% | +16.2% | -2.8% |
Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) | $7.52 | +$0.29 | +4.0% | +26.4% | +625.3% |
Immutep (IMM) | $0.405 | +$0.015 | +3.8% | +26.6% | +41.0% |
Dicker Data (DDR) | $9.19 | +$0.29 | +3.3% | -5.9% | -5.3% |
Today’s best ASX performers
All other major ASX sectors found themselves with losses of up to one percent, with Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.82%) lagging the pack mainly due to a poor performance from sector leader Premier Investments (ASX: PMV) (-3.9%), after the company issued a disappointing sales update.
The Gold (XGD) (-1.8%) sub-index also suffered, as the gold price slipped in Friday's trade.
There are a few dividends at play, however, with Super Retail Group (ASX: SUL) (-7.4%) and Perseus Mining (ASX: PRU) (-3.3%) likely accounting for a chunk of the losses in the two aforementioned sectors, respectively. Elsewhere, CSL's (ASX: CSL) (-1.4%) ex-dividend likely also dragged on Health Care (XHJ) (-0.68%).
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
Omni Bridgeway (OBL) | $0.945 | -$0.1 | -9.6% | +0.5% | -56.5% |
GDI Property Group (GDI) | $0.625 | -$0.045 | -6.7% | +4.2% | -0.8% |
NIB (NHF) | $5.63 | -$0.38 | -6.3% | -21.7% | -27.4% |
Steadfast Group (SDF) | $5.96 | -$0.39 | -6.1% | -6.0% | +6.2% |
Johns Lyng Group (JLG) | $3.45 | -$0.22 | -6.0% | -36.8% | -46.4% |
Codan (CDA) | $14.18 | -$0.9 | -6.0% | +20.2% | +78.6% |
Iperionx (IPX) | $2.63 | -$0.15 | -5.4% | +27.7% | +129.7% |
Corporate Travel Management (CTD) | $11.24 | -$0.63 | -5.3% | -13.1% | -37.1% |
AUB Group (AUB) | $29.49 | -$1.61 | -5.2% | -7.9% | -3.8% |
Genesis Minerals (GMD) | $2.07 | -$0.11 | -5.0% | +0.5% | +33.5% |
Super Retail Group (SUL) | $16.89 | -$0.84 | -4.7% | +16.2% | +38.4% |
Mader Group (MAD) | $5.03 | -$0.25 | -4.7% | -16.7% | -33.2% |
Viva Energy Group (VEA) | $2.73 | -$0.13 | -4.5% | -12.8% | -11.1% |
Lovisa (LOV) | $30.99 | -$1.45 | -4.5% | -5.6% | +48.0% |
HMC Capital (HMC) | $7.93 | -$0.37 | -4.5% | +1.4% | +48.5% |
Sayona Mining (SYA) | $0.022 | -$0.001 | -4.3% | -18.5% | -80.0% |
Adairs (ADH) | $1.865 | -$0.08 | -4.1% | -7.2% | +32.3% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | $33.85 | -$1.36 | -3.9% | +11.2% | +33.4% |
Austin Engineering (ANG) | $0.500 | -$0.02 | -3.8% | -16.7% | +85.2% |
Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.640 | -$0.025 | -3.8% | +4.1% | +91.0% |
Today’s worst ASX performers
ChartWatch
NASDAQ Composite Index
It could get a little bumpy from here
In the last couple of Comp updates (28 Aug and 4 Sep), we noted that the supply side was beginning to challenge the rally from the Jul-Aug pullback, but this wasn’t necessarily a bad thing as it would give as a better idea of just how committed the demand side was.
Unfortunately, as it turns out, the demand side wasn’t as committed as the supply side!
In the 4 Sep update more specifically, we noted the balance of probabilities had tipped “toward another test of the August lows”. I also pointed out the critical nature of the Comp price holding the long term uptrend ribbon.
Since that last update, it has been three out of three supply-side candles (i.e., upward pointing shadows on 4 Aug and 5 Aug, and a decisive long black candle on Friday).
Tonight’s candle is now the critical upcoming event. Friday shows an absence so far of dynamic demand in the long term trend ribbon – we must see excess demand manifest there ASAP or the supply-side will be emboldened, and the demand-side further discredited!
18018-18129 is supply, but 17296 will likely also be a formidable pressure point impeding any bounce. It concerns me that 18018-18129 has confirmed building supply from 18671.
Demand is right here – at the long term uptrend ribbon – and down to the August pullback low of 15708.
A quick bounce and a large bounce – is a good bounce. So long white candles and or long downward pointing shadows are a must tonight, or if not tonight, very, very soon. Anything less smacks of a demand-side that would rather sit it out and wait for calmer risk seas.
The candles, price action, and developing trends here concern me – for the first time since this leg of the bull market began back in November last year. Stay on your toes peoples as it could get a little bumpy from here!
S&P 500
Not as bad as the Comp, but some worrying signs are creeping in...
This is the first time we’ve covered the S&P 500 in ChartWatch – which some might find a little curious given it happens to be widely considered the benchmark US stock index.
As we’ve discussed here in the past, I prefer to use the Comp to get an idea of the health or lack thereof of the US stock market because it is broader (the Comp has nearly 10 times as many constituents as the S&P 500), and it is constituents are generally far more sensitive to interest rates and US economic conditions (many smaller cap and pre-earnings / debt funded for growth companies).
I’ve added the S&P 500 this evening to show that it doesn’t look quite as controlled by the supply side as the Comp does, but to also alert you of a MUST READ ARTICLE I published today about US bear markets over the last 30 years.
If you’re a long sufferer of this section, then you probably already know my philosophy on uptrend to downtrend transition. But, if you're not, this article will serve as an excellent ready reckoner – with some of the greatest technical analysis case studies of the last three decades.
Economy
Today
CHN Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (CPI) y/y August
+0.6% p.a. actual vs +0.7% p.a. forecast and +0.5% p.a. in July
Note: A lower CPI gives the PBOC greater flexibility to stimulate the Chinese economy
CHN Producer Price Index (Inflation) (PPI) y/y August
-1.8% p.a. actual vs -1.5% p.a. forecast and -0.8% p.a. in July
Note: Lower Chinese producer price inflation is considered helpful for global inflationary trends given China's massive export market
Later this week
Tuesday
10:30 AUS Westpac Consumer Sentiment (+2.3% previous)
11:30 NAB Business Confidence (+1.0 previous)
Wednesday
22:30 USA Core CPI August (+0.2% m/m to +3.1% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% to +3.2% p.a. in July)
Thursday
22:15 EUR ECB Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement (-0.50% forecast to 4.25%)
22::30 USA Core PPI August (+0.2% m/m to +2.4% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% to +2.4% p.a. in July)
Saturday
00:00 USA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment August (68.4 forecast vs 67.9 July)
Latest News
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
+17.7% Cettire (CTT) - Continued positive response to large director purchase, see: Founder and CEO Share Purchase
+15.3% Appen (APX) - No news, consistent with recent volatility, still appears to be bouncing off long term trend ribbon, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend 🔎📈
+14.0% Opthea (OPT) - Opthea Corporate Presentation - September 2024 and S&P DJI Announces September 2024 Quarterly Rebalance (Addition to the S&P/ASX 300 Index – effective prior to the open on September 23), rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈
+8.6% Anteris Technologies (AVR) - No news, bouncing after a massive sell off since April peak (short and long term trends still down)
+7.5% Hotel Property Investments (HPI) - HPI intends to recommend REJECT CQR/Hostplus takeover offer, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈
+7.1% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - Director on market purchase: Change of Director's Interest Notice - Quinn.
+6.9% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) - No news since 5 Aug Mayne Pharma to present at HC Wainwright conference in NY.
+6.3% ARB Corporation (ARB) - Conditional Agreement for ORW to Acquire US based 4WP Assets, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (ChartWatch Scans Uptrends regular) 🔎📈
+5.8% Catapult Group International (CAT) - S&P DJI Announces September 2024 Quarterly Rebalance (Addition to the S&P/ASX All Technology Index – effective prior to the open on September 23), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (ChartWatch Scans Uptrends regular) 🔎📈
+5.4% Humm Group (HUM) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (ChartWatch Scans Uptrends regular) 🔎📈
+4.9% Gentrack Group (GTK) - S&P DJI Announces September 2024 Quarterly Rebalance (Addition to the S&P/ASX 300 Index – effective prior to the open on September 23), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (ChartWatch Scans Uptrends regular) 🔎📈
+4.8% Botanix Pharmaceuticals (BOT) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (ChartWatch Scans Uptrends regular) 🔎📈
+4.5% Yancoal Australia (YAL) - Yancoal added to S&P/ASX 200 and S&P/ASX 300 indices
+4.3% Pantoro (PNR) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (ChartWatch Scans Uptrends regular) 🔎📈
+4.2% Liontown Resources (LTR) - No news since 4 Sep Production passes 10,000t spodumene concentrate, clear best of the ASX lithium majors today!
+4.1% Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up (recent ChartWatch Scans Uptrends regular) 🔎📈
+4.0% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) - S&P DJI Announces September 2024 Quarterly Rebalance (Addition to the S&P/ASX 300 Index – effective prior to the open on September 23), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends (ChartWatch Scans Uptrends regular) 🔎📈
Trading lower
-9.6% Omni Bridgeway (OBL) - S&P DJI Announces September 2024 Quarterly Rebalance (Removal from the S&P/ASX 300 Index – effective prior to the open on September 23), fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (ChartWatch Scans Downtrends regular) 🔎📉
-6.7% GDI Property Group (GDI) - S&P DJI Announces September 2024 Quarterly Rebalance (Removal from the S&P/ASX 300 Index – effective prior to the open on September 23)
-6.3% NIB (NHF) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (ChartWatch Scans Downtrends regular) 🔎📉
-6.1% Steadfast Group (SDF) - Trading Halt, related to ACCC chair calls for ban on strata insurance commissions as insurance giant Steadfast Group caught misleading clients
-6.0% Johns Lyng Group (JLG) - Response to ASX Aware Query, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (ChartWatch Scans Downtrends regular) 🔎📉
-6.0% Codan (CDA) - No news.
-5.4% Iperionx (IPX) - No news.
-5.3% Corporate Travel Management (CTD) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (ChartWatch Scans Downtrends regular) 🔎📉
-5.2% AUB Group (AUB) - Release of Securities from Voluntary Escrow
-5.0% Genesis Minerals (GMD) - Application for quotation of securities and Change of Director's Interest Notice
-4.7% Super Retail Group (SUL) - Ex-dividend $0.87 fully franked
-4.7% Mader Group (MAD) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short term downtrend, long term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉
-4.5% Viva Energy Group (VEA) - Ex-dividend $0.067 fully franked
-4.3% Sayona Mining (SYA) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends (ChartWatch Scans Downtrends regular) 🔎📉
Broker Notes
ANZ Group (ANZ)
Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $25.00
Aspen Group (APZ)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.40
ARB Corporation (ARB)
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $48.00
AUB Group (AUB)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.20
Avjennings (AVJ)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.45
Accent Group (AX1)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.75 from $2.50
Breville Group (BRG)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.10
Challenger (CGF)
Upgraded at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00
Centuria Industrial Reit (CIP)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.30
Centuria Capital Group (CNI)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.80
Centuria Office Reit (COF)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.25
Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.50
Dexus Convenience Retail Reit (DXC)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.10
Dexus Industria Reit (DXI)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.80
Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.06
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $36.13
GDI Property Group (GDI)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.80
GQG Partners (GQG)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.20
Healthco Healthcare and Wellness Reit (HCW)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.50
Homeco Daily Needs Reit (HDN)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.35
HMC Capital (HMC)
Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.15
Integral Diagnostics (IDX)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.90
JB HI-FI (JBH)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $77.00
JP Morgan Global Select Equity Active ETF (JHG)
Upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS; Price Target: $37.00 from $33.00
Lifestyle Communities (LIC)
Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.20
Lovisa (LOV)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.10
Mirvac Group (MGR)
Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.15
Macquarie Group (MQG)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $234.00
Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $230.00 from $210.00
Monash IVF Group (MVF)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.50
Nick Scali (NCK)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.25
Northern Star Resources (NST)
Initiated at add at Morgans; Price Target: $16.90
Propel Funeral Partners (PFP)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.88
Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.18
REA Group (REA)
Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $226.00 from $223.00
Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $230.00
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $229.00
Rio Tinto (RIO)
Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $118.00
Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.40
South32 (S32)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.25
Scentre Group (SCG)
Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.50
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.79
Stockland (SGP)
Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.30
Seven Group (SVW)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $43.90
Technology One (TNE)
Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $22.20
Scans
Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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