Evening Wrap: ASX 200 hobbles into week's end as MQG, QAN & Block results disappoint, WBC goes ex-div

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 58.6 points lower, down 0.66%.

A bit of a diabolical week for Aussie investors – plenty of news, and quite a lot of it resulting in sharp selloffs – take James Hardie Industries (JHX) yesterday, and Block (XYZ), Qantas Airways (QAN), and Macquarie Group (MQG) today. At least boring old "defensive" stocks were up today... like good old Coles Group (COL) and Telstra (TLS)!

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

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Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 58.6 points lower at 8,769.7, 0.75% from its session high and just 0.15% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 94 to 177.

For the week, the XJO finished down 112 points or 1.3% lower, 1.4% from its intraweek high and 0.4% from its intraweek low.

Fund flows: Pretty = ❌ Navigable = ✅

A bit of a diabolical week for Aussie investors. Plenty of news, quite a lot of it resulting in sharp selloffs – take James Hardie Industries (JHX) (+1.4%) yesterday, and Block (XYZ) (-15.8%), Qantas Airways (QAN) (-6.6%), and Macquarie Group (MQG) (-5.7%) today... Plus we're going to close it out with some rather dour technicals (see ChartWatch below!).

But at least some things made sense. Resources (XJR) (-0.4%) weren't terrible... and if we expand that out to "commodities" / "cyclicals" / and low-P/E in general by adding Energy (XEJ) (+0.5%) – we get to "half decent"...

Specifically for today, there was a distinct low-P/E / defensive slant, with Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+0.6%), Real Estate (XPJ) (+0.5%), Utilities (XUJ) (+0.2%) and Health Care (XHJ) (+0.03%) the only sectors to show gains. The stuff you buy reluctantly because you must buy something – and because you refuse to buy the "other stuff"...

What's the "other stuff"? Information Technology (XIJ) (-2.2%) and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.1%) (i.e., high-P/E) – which kept selling off...

It wasn't pretty – but at least from a fund flows perspective – it was navigable. 🛳️

Stock Specific: Fight or flight? 🤔

Telstra (TLS) chart

Think of the most boring, defensive stock you can. Decent yield, mature business, dominant position, low P/E – last pick on a growth stock hit list – you know, like Telstra Group (TLS) (+1.2%). Now think of the opposite – a Wisetech Global (WTC) (-2.6%), a Xero (XRO) (-2.5%), or a Pro Medicus (PME) (-0.5%).

Wisetech Global (WTC) chart (top) and Xero (XRO) chart (bottom)

This is the essence of sector / thematic rotations... to be fair, for most of the last 2-years, the rotation was largely the other way (ok, TLS has been a rock regardless... but you get my drift – WTC, XRO and PME were major beneficiaries, as were JB Hi-Fi (JBH) (-0.9%) and Wesfarmers (WES) (-0.5%)).

JB Hi-Fi (JBH) chart

The funds play their favourites, they rotate cash across the market based on what their fancy spreadsheets tell them – you can either go with the flows, or fight them 🥊.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

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ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

Fridays + Old Tin Pot = A great big bowl of steaming why do we even bother? 🤦

Yesterday’s high forms yet another lower peak since 9116 (at 8858 – not shown in the chart to reduce clutter). It follows 27-Oct’s 9038, and 31-Oct’s 8944. It also starts to make the old 8809-43 demand zone look very much like an ongoing supply zone 😭.

In summary, here’s the evidence of what is quickly becoming rub-your-face-in-it supply-side control:

• Falling peaks and falling troughs since 29-Oct

• Predominance of supply-side candles (i.e., those with black bodies and or upward pointing shadows)

• Short term trend ribbon is now pointing down (still amber, but not far from turning pink)

• Price is below the short term trend ribbon and it’s showing signs of acting as a zone of dynamic supply

• 8731-38 major zone of demand tested once – now looking like the critical line in the sand for this short term trend… and dare I say – a close below it would start to seriously challenge the long term uptrend.

• Volumes are pathetic. It’s not so much that we’re facing a wall of supply – rather a demand-side strike: either they see no reason to engage and buy the dip… or even worse… they don’t have the cash to buy the dip because they’re already invested!

But! Tears are for those who don’t have a clear and systematic approach to reading trends, price action, and candles (i.e., not us!).

Well, at least, not me – because I already reduced my portfolio risk to 2/3RP back on 30-Oct (I asked the question as early as that 29-Oct candle!) As for the next cut… 🪓 We all agreed on a close below 8731… didn’t we? 🤔

You’re still with me, right? What, you already went? Cheeky you!

View: I’m going to go 1/2RP. As with any of my portfolio risk cap changes, it’s always a “make your way towards it” prospect. It just means not adding new risk until below the cap, being harsher on the risk that’s still there, and nudging up short-side exposure if possible (and if you’ve been watching my ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends Scan Lists – you know there’s been some great opportunities to capitalise on shorts in there 💪).

Key levels: 8831 is the next key level that the price must not cross to maintain any semblance this is still a short term uptrend! A close above the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8905-8908) would help confirm the demand-side remains active in the system.

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Have you seen this week's ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar?

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Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Saturday

• USA tentative due to US government shutdown – Core PCE Price Index m/m

• USA tentative due to US government shutdown – Non-Farm Employment Change

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Latest News

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Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +8.9% Sun Silver (SS1) - Near-Surface Antimony at Maverick Springs, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +8.2% Australian Rare Earths (AR3) - Assay's point to sedimentary hosted uranium targets.

• +6.6% Larvotto Resources (LRV) - Continued positive response to 06-Nov PYBAR Appointed as Underground Development Contractor, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +6.3% AUB Group (AUB) - Update on non-binding indicative proposal from EQT.

• +6.3% Kairos Minerals (KAI) - No news since 06-Nov Start of Drilling on Extension to Mt York, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.9% Andean Silver (ASL) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.6% Unico Silver (USL) - New Discoveries Reinforces District Potential at Joaquin, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +4.9% Turaco Gold (TCG) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +4.8% Strike Energy (STX) - No news.

• +4.5% Elsight (ELS) - No news.

• +4.3% Warriedar Resources (WA8) - No news since 06-Nov Schemes Approved by Warriedar Securityholders, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +4.2% Lindsay Australia (LAU) - AGM Address and slides.

• +4.1% Global X Ultra Short Nasdaq-100 Complex ETF (SNAS) - No news, (short Nasdaq ETF).

Trading lower

• -42.7% Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ) - FY26 Earnings Guidance, Reinstatement to Quotation, and Board & Management Changes, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -15.8% Block (XYZ) - Block Inc. - 10-Q (3Q25).

• -12.5% Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) - No news.

• -11.9% Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -11.4% European Lithium (EUR) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -10.4% Weebit Nano (WBT) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -10.0% Cettire (CTT) - No news, general weakness across the broader Consumer Discretionary sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing long term downtrend 🔎📉

• -7.8% Silex Systems (SLX) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -7.5% Elevra Lithium (ELV) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -7.3% Aura Energy (AEE) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -7.3% Global X Uranium ETF (ATOM) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -7.0% Elevate Uranium (EL8) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -6.9% Peninsula Energy (PEN) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -6.6% Zip Co. (ZIP) - Funding and capital update.

• -6.6% Qantas Airways (QAN) - Qantas Group Market Update and 2025 AGM CEO's Address to Shareholders.

• -6.1% Nexgen Energy (NXG) - No news, general weakness across the broader Uranium sector today.

• -6.0% OOH!Media (OML) - Trading Update, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.8% Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -5.7% Macquarie Group (MQG) - Macquarie Group 1H26 Presentation.

• -5.7% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• -5.6% Iperionx (IPX) - No news, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

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Broker Moves

Acusensus (ACE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.05

Amcor Plc (AMC)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $15.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.42 from $17.44

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $18.46

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $15.20

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.10 from $14.20

Austin Engineering (ANG)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.30 from $0.50

Amotiv (AOV)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $12.56

Eagers Automotive (APE)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $29.98

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $45.17

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $42.00

Austal (ASB)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.86

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $62.15

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

• Initiated at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

Beach Energy (BPT)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $1.10

Breville Group (BRG)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi; Price Target: $36.03

Credit Corp Group (CCP)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.70 from $18.23

Challenger (CGF)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.25

CSL (CSL)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $275.00

Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $19.00

Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.27 from $6.26

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.55

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $7.30 from $7.10

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $176.00 from $173.00

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $175.00 from $176.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $170.00

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $175.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $206.00

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $15.55 from $14.15

Magnetic Resources NL (MAU)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.98

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.60

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $200.00

Micro-X (MX1)

• Retained at speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.17

National Australia Bank (NAB)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $37.00 from $36.00

• Downgraded to sell from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $29.00

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $43.00 from $42.20

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $39.00 from $38.00

• Downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $40.00 from $42.50

• Retained at sell at Morgans; Price Target: $31.46 from $31.23

• Downgraded to sell from lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $35.00 from $34.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $42.50 from $37.50

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $25.00

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $24.05

Qantas Airways (QAN)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.60

REA Group (REA)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $279.50

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $270.00

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $34.00

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $30.50

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $25.00

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Scans