Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 dips on tech weakness and layoff jitters

ASX 200 futures are up 2pts (+0.02%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks lower (S&P 500 -1.12%, Dow -0.84%, Nasdaq -1.90%, Russell 2000 -1.63%) and closed near worst levels, with Tech and Discretionary sectors down more than 2.0%

• High volume of reporters, though high-profile names like Qualcomm, Arm Holdings And Applovin mostly lower despite better-than-expected numbers

• UK, Norway and Brazil central banks hold rates, while Fed Hammack and Goolsbee lean against more rate cuts

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 traded lower to close near worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks lower and finished near worst levels

• Risk-off theme seeing retail favourites (Nvidia, Meta, Tesla), most-shorted basket, nuclear and crypto leading the downside move

• AI capex/bubble talks back in play even as OpenAI walked back on comments about government guarantees on debt to finance AI infrastructure buildout

• Massive volume of reporters today, plenty of higher-profile names like Qualcomm (-3.6%), Arm Holdings (-1.2%), Applovin (+0.70%) and RobinHood (-10.8%) posted better-than-expected quarterly numbers, though the emerging concern is that the market is not rewarding beats after strong YTD rallies

• China's weighting in MSCI global indexes rises for first time in almost two years, paving way for increased passive inflows (BBG)

STOCKS

• Nvidia CEO says China will win AI race due lower energy costs and looser regulations (FT)

• Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk reach deals with Trump to slash weight loss drug prices (CNBC)

• Microsoft pursuing more powerful form of AI called "superintelligence" focused on medicine and science development (BBG)

• Qualcomm CEO says world is underestimating the growth ahead of AI (BBG)

• Google Finance to offers Gemini AI tools to stock traders (TV)

• Google reportedly in discussions to deepen investment in Anthropic with new round of funding at more than $350bn, nearly twice Anthropic's $183bn valuation in early September funding round (RT)

• Ford considering discontinuing F-150 Lightning due to low demand, $13bn in EV losses since 2023 (WSJ)

• Snap announced it would receive $400m over one year to integrate Perplexity AI search features into Snapchat (CNBC)

• Qualcomm Q1 guidance ahead of market expectations citing resilient smartphone demand but shares still slip 3.6% (BBG)

• Arm Holdings Q3 revenue and EPS guidance top estimates, reflecting growing interest from AI data centers but shares fade ~4% rally to close slightly lower (BBG)

• Maersk shares fall 5% as investors were disappointed by a weak full-year profit guidance (BBG)

TARIFFS

• China's agreement with US to pause rare earth exports faces dispute over control measures and implementation scope (NK)

• Bessent expresses optimism after Supreme Court hearing on Trump's tariffs (RT)

• China purchased two cargoes of US wheat, first purchases since October last year (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Bank of England holds rates at 4.00% and tees up December cut (BBG)

• Fed's Hammack leans against more rate cuts amid signs of higher inflation (RT)

• Fed's Goolsbee says he is uneasy about more rate cuts amid lack of economic data readings (BBG)

• Fed's Miran says he expects rate cut in December (RT)

• Norway's central bank holds rates at 4.00%, future cuts depending on economic data (BBG)

• Brazil's central bank holds rates, maintains hawkish tone amid inflation focus (RT)

SHUTDOWN

• Trump administration now considering a 4% reduction in flights starting Friday, ratcheting up 1% each day of the shutdown (CNN)

• Trump to provide SNAP recipients with 65% of their monthly benefits in November (POL)

• Nancy Pelosi to retire from Congress, will not run for re-election in 2026 (RT)

ECONOMY

• US companies announce over 150,000 job cuts in October, almost double the prior month, triple year-on-year and the mist in more than two decades (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Block reports Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $832.7m vs. $840.2m ests, EPS of 54 cents vs. 64 cents ests, shares down ~12% after hours (XYZ)

• Brainchip launches $30m underwritten placement at 17.5 cents or 10% discount to last close (AFR) 

• GPT Group guides to FY26 FFO of 34 cps vs. previous guidance of at least 33.2 cps (GPT)

• Humm Group concludes discussions with Abercrombie Group, Abercrombie withdraws takeover proposal which was priced at 58 cents per share (HUM)

• News Corp reports Q1 EPS of 22 cents vs. 19 cents ests, company accelerated the rate of share repurchases, which is currently running at over four times the FY25 pace (NWS)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• It's getting heavy out there: The path of least resistance has flipped lower as breadth continues to deteriorate and headwinds begin to pile (AI capex/bubble, lack of share price upside from better-than-expected earnings, prolonged government shutdown, hawkish Fedspeak, soaring job cut numbers etc). Several overnight ETF experienced a knee-jerk move to the downside (e.g. Uranium down 5.8% to fresh six-week low, FinTech down 4.4% to fresh five-month low). Perhaps a pullback buy opportunity, but still need to see how things unravel.

• Macquarie 1H25 results: At a glance (will post a more in-depth look on the blog), $1.66bn NPAT is a miss vs. $1.84bn ests.

BROKER MOVES

• ASX upgraded to Outperform from Neutral; target up to $64 from $63 (MQG)

• Bannerman Energy initiated Outperform with $5.50 target (MQG)

• Credit Corp upgraded to Outperform from Neutral but target cut to $16.70 from $18.23 (MQG)

• NAB downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight; target cut to $40 from $42.50 (MS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 7 Nov: None

• Mon 10 Nov: None

• Tue 11 Nov: Champion Iron (CIA) – $0.109, Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

• Wed 12 Nov: ResMed (RMD) – $0.064, Acorn Capital (ACQ) – $0.028

• Thu 13 Nov: Future Generation Australia (FGX) – $0.036

• Fri 14 Nov: TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.09

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: None

• Earnings: Macquarie Group (MQG)

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: Nine Entertainment (NEC), Spark New Zealand (SPK), Qantas Airways (QAN) 

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 2:00 pm: China Balance of Trade (Oct)