ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 7th November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, November 7. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 on track to finish the week 1pc lower

[2:10 pm] ASX 200 currently down 0.58% despite hovering around breakeven in early trade, on track to finish the week down around 1.0% to a fresh six-week low. The session marked a pivot towards defensives/value, with Energy (+0.80%), Telcos (+0.75%), Healthcare (+0.63%), Staples (+0.56%), Real Estate (+0.44%) and Utilities (+0.36%) higher. This meant that breadth was positive (55% of constituents higher) but unable to offset the declines from miners, Big Four Banks (plus Macquarie) and tech.

Overall, things are getting heavy out there.

• NAB dipped 3.3% on Thursday as many analysts flagged the FY result as not strong enough to drive further upside. Capital was a central concern, with CET1 ratio sitting only just above its target, limiting flexibility for capital management or growth.

• Macquarie down sharply (~6.5%) today on earnings miss, hit by green impairments, higher tax and weaker-than-expected CGM earnings due to cost pressures and lower commodities.

• Iron ore prices showing some cracks despite seasonal tailwinds. Prices down ~3% this week to US$103 a tonne. Also seeing some weakness across most other metals including copper, gold, aluminium and more.

• Australia 10-year yield still mostly rangebound (as it has been for the past few years) but up 23 bps since 22-Oct (when it was on the verge of breaking lower)

• Rate repricing and risk-off tone has smashed sectors like Tech (-12.0%) and Discretionary (-9.0%) in the past month

Things are a little more spicy in the US, where job losses are accelerating, plenty of Fed policymakers no longer confident on a December rate cut and AI bubble concerns (Altman mulls $1tn government guarantee, Meta hiding $30bn in debt off its balance sheet via SPACs). That's all for today. Let's see if US markets can hold up overnight (or take a leg down – who knows). Have a good weekend!

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Macquarie 1H25 earnings call highlights

[1:46 pm] Macquarie Q&A highlighted robust private credit book quality and strong solar demand in green assets, while guiding to significantly higher performance fees in FY26.

• Green assets transferred to corporate for optimised focus, with the predominantly solar portfolio seeing strong demand while wind exposure faces regional challenges, particularly in US offshore projects, with performance fees expected to remain at 50 basis points through the cycle.

• Private credit book quality remains robust with low loss ratios, though growth now leverages co-investment partnerships due to concentration limits, while M&A transaction values have risen but large fee events are not anticipated in the second half.

• Macquarie Asset Management base fees expected to remain broadly in line for FY26 excluding divested Public Investments, with net other operating income significantly higher driven by performance fees from maturing funds and asset exits.

• Banking and Financial Services will grow loan portfolios, deposits and funds on platform in FY26 despite ongoing margin pressure, while maintaining elevated technology and digital platform investment over the next 12 months.

• Commodities and Global Markets income expected to remain broadly stable with CGM cost increases driven by platform investment and remediation, though one-off transaction costs won't recur and some remediation costs should roll off over coming periods, with the $2 billion share buyback extended for 12 months with just under $1 billion remaining.

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REA 1Q26 takeaways

[12:37 pm] RBC Capital Markets analyst Garry Sherriff noted management's upbeat tone on improving listing volumes and yield expectations, though REA needs to accelerate growth in Q2 to meet consensus estimates after tracking below forecasts in Q1.

• Group revenue increased 4% year-over-year to $429 million with operating EBITDA up 5% to $175 million, delivering operating jaws of 1%, though growth is tracking below half-year RBC and consensus forecasts requiring Q2 revenue growth of 10-14% to meet targets.

• National listing volumes declined 8% in Q1 cycling strong prior year comparisons, but October showed meaningful improvement with national volumes down only 3% and Sydney/Melbourne up 6%/2% respectively, providing potential depth revenue tailwinds if the mix improvement continues.

• New CEO handled questions adroitly with management emphasising REA has "more cost flexibility than ever" to manage expenses while remaining hyper-focused on positive operating jaws and double-digit yield growth despite CoStar and AI competition concerns.

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Insider transaction: Mach7 Technologies

[12:32 pm] Mach7 Technologies Chair Robert Bazzani disclosed a purchase of 100,000 shares, boosting his beneficial holdings to 355,000 shares (39% increase in holdings).

Mach7 Technologies provides enterprise imaging software and solutions that help healthcare organisations manage, store, and share medical images across multiple systems and locations.

The stock is down 25% year-to-date and trading at six-year lows. Despite its $70m market cap, the company reported an ARR run rate of $23.5m as at 30 September 2025, with $18.9m cash and no debt.

Company page: Mach7 Technologies (M7T)

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Block Q3 earnings call highlights

[12:30 pm] Block management highlighted an acceleration in Cash App growth at the earnings call, with October outpacing September's strong results. Other key highlights include:

• Cash App monthly actives and engagement accelerated significantly in October beyond September's momentum, supported by field sales expansion to over 100 reps with robust marginal ROI and further investment planned for 2026.

• Borrow origination volume surged 134% year-over-year with loss rates remaining below the 3% target, while the diversified ecosystem across network, banking, commerce and Bitcoin drives durable double-digit gross profit growth beyond lending alone.

• Square Bitcoin payments launching in November 2025 with zero fees for merchants, following positive early beta feedback on simple onboarding, while AI initiatives span both internal automation and customer-facing tools across all products.

• Q4 2025 guidance includes gross profit exceeding $2.755 billion (19%+ growth), adjusted operating income of $560 million (20% margin), with full-year gross profit reaching $10.243 billion (15%+ growth) and adjusted operating income of $2.056 billion (nearly 28% growth).

• Company expects to approach Rule of 40 by year-end 2025 heading into 2026, with continued share repurchases as cash generation allows.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[11:30 am] AUB tops the leaderboard after EQT confirmed its intention to proceed with its proposal to acquire AUB at $45.00.

XYZ is facing a sharp gap down after its quarterly result missed expectations. Macquarie also suffering a sharp move on weak 1H25 results.

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Woodside quietly breaking out

[11:29 am] Haven't checked in on Woodside in a while. Surprised to see it up ~17% since mid-October and on the verge of breaking out to a fresh 16-month high.

Woodside daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Analysts take on NAB FY25 result

[10:41 am] NAB shares dipped 3.3% on Thursday after the company reported a relatively in-line FY25 result, though the optimism around the margin beat was offset by higher costs and elevated impairments.

• Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equal-weight, lowered target from $42.50 to $40.00. Sees valuation stretched after the rally, with earnings and capital strength insufficient to drive further upside.

• Jarden downgraded to Sell, target unchanged at $29.00. Says strategy lacks differentiation, business banking leadership is weakening, and valuation looks rich relative to fundamentals.

• UBS retained Neutral, raised target from $37.50 to $42.50. Viewed the result as broadly in line but noted capital constraints and performance shortfalls keep the stock fairly priced.

• JPMorgan retained Overweight, raised target from $42.20 to $43.00. Highlights resilient margins and SME lending, sees capital worries as overstated, and keeps the stock as a top sector pick.

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ASX 200 flat, defensives trading higher

[10:36 am] ASX 200 flat in early trade, with value/defensive sectors outperforming, while the Tech slumps to the lowest level since May and now down ~15% since its 19-Sep record high.

ASX 200 sector performance (Source: Market Index)

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Macquarie nears 6-month low

[10:23 am] Macquarie shares have dipped 4.8% ($206.70) in early trade after its 1H25 results missed market expectations.

• NPAT up 3% to $1.65bn vs. $1.84bn ests (10.3% miss)

• Assets under management up 5% to $959.1bn as at 30 September 2025

• CET1 ratio of 12.4% vs. 13.5% ests (110 bp miss)

• Interim ordinary dividend of 280 cps vs. Morgan Stanley ests of 280 cps (in-line)

• Approved extension of the up to $2bn buyback for a further 12 months, a total of $1.01bn shares have been brought back as of 6-Nov at an average price of $189.80 per share

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Alliance Aviation dips 36pc

[10:20 am] Alliance Aviation has resumed trading after the stock was halted last Friday, 31 October. The company has guided to FY26 EBITDA of $190-210 vs. $214.6m ests and pre-tax income of $46-50m vs. $81.7m ests.

Despite the sharp miss, the company reaffirmed its strong operating cash flows and profitability.

Alliance Aviation shares opened 26.8% lower ($1.85%) and currently down 37.5% ($1.57).

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Zip new funding facility takeaways

[9:56 am] E&P analyst Annabel Khun says the new facility improves the quality of Zip's balance sheet and provides security for short-term maturity concerns with their other US facility maturing in December 2026.

"As Zip grows their size and balance sheet quality, they can continue securing better funding terms, and these lower costs on their US and Australian facilities should deliver margin improvements over the second half," says Khun.

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More on REA Group

[9:50 am] Just taking a closer look at two line items from REA's first quarter result:

• India EBITDA loss was $28m in FY25, with Macquarie FY26 ests of $37m loss in FY26. The new loss guidance of $40-45m is a sizeable increase (though relatively immaterial vs. Group EBITDA of ~$1bn)

• Core operating expenses is said to increase by mid single-digits and high single-digits on an underlying basis vs. Macquarie forecasts of 5.6% ($704m in FY25 to $744m in FY26)

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REA Group Q1 report

[9:47 am] REA announced its results for the three months ended 30 September 2025, with numbers relatively in-line with market expectations.

• Revenue up 4% to $429m vs. $434.3m ests (1.2% miss)

• Operating EBITDA (ex-associates) up 5% to $254m vs. $250.8m ests (1.3% beat)

• Residential buy yield of 13%, in-line with ests

• Listing growth of -8.0%, as pre-reported

FY26 outlook commentary:

• National residential Buy listing volumes expected to remain broadly in-line with last year's healthy market, with the company continuing to target double-digit residential Buy yield growth and positive operating jaws.

• Group core operating expenses expected to increase mid-single digits, though on an underlying basis excluding PropTiger, Housing Edge and iGUIDE, high single-digit cost growth is anticipated.

• EBITDA losses in India expected to range between A$40-45 million, impacted by the exit of Housing Edge, while contributions from combined associates' losses are expected to improve modestly compared to the prior year.

Company page: REA Group (REA)

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Zip funding and buyback update

[9:43 am] Zip has established a $283.4 million warehouse facility with two US funding partners. "The two-year facility provides enhanced capacity for future growth, delivers a material improvement in funding costs and adds diversity to Zip’s funding program," the company said in the announcement.

Zip also said it has repurchased 21.4 million shares for a total consideration of $58.4 million to date as part of its ongoing on-market share buy-back program of up to $100 million ordinary shares.

Company page: Zip (ZIP)

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oOh!Media flags Q4 weakness

[9:37 am] oOh!media reported Q3 revenue growth of 7% but warned Q4 revenues will fall below prior year due to significant softening in Australian advertising and the loss of Auckland Transport contract, leading to downgraded margin guidance.

• FY26 revenue guidance of $689-694m vs. $707.5m ests (2.3% miss at the midpoint)

• Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $139-142m (incl NZ restructuring costs) vs. $151.8m ests (7.4% miss)

• Capex to be at the lower end of $53-63m guidance

Outlook/trading commentary:

• Q3 revenue grew 7% year-over-year, slightly ahead of the 5% pacing indicated at half-year results, with improved market share performance excluding Retail and New Zealand.

• Australian advertising market softened significantly in October impacting both the overall out-of-home market and oOh!, while the non-renewal of Auckland Transport contract substantially hit New Zealand revenues.

• Q4 revenues now expected slightly below prior year due to subdued market conditions, with gross margin guidance lowered to approximately 43.0% from 44.0% due to lower revenues and adverse channel mix in the second half.

Company page: oOh!Media (OML)

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Macquarie 1H25 results

[9:34 am] A sizeable NPAT and CET1 miss for Macquarie.

• NPAT up 3% to $1.65bn vs. $1.84bn ests (10.3% miss)

• Assets under management up 5% to $959.1bn as at 30 September 2025

• CET1 ratio of 12.4% vs. 13.5% ests (110 bp miss)

• Interim ordinary dividend of 280 cps vs. Morgan Stanley ests of 280 cps (in-line)

• Approved extension of the up to $2bn buyback for a further 12 months, a total of $1.01bn shares have been brought back as of 6-Nov at an average price of $189.80 per share

CEO commentary: “The improved underlying performance across our operating groups in the first half reflects the ongoing benefits of our diverse business mix and our continued investment in opportunities that support long-term growth and deliver positive outcomes for our clients and communities.”

Company page: Macquarie (MQG)

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News Corp Q1 results

[9:27 am] News Corp reported 1Q26 revenue growth of 2.0% to $2.14 billion (vs. $2.11bn ests) and 10% adjusted EPS growth to 20 cents (vs. 19 cps ests).

• Dow Jones: Revenue up 6% to $586m, driven by strong 16% growth in Risk & Compliance and higher digital circulation revenue.

• Move (Realtor.com): Revenue up 9% to $152m, marking its fastest growth since Q2 FY22.

• Book Publishing: EBITDA hit by a $13m write-off of a customer receivable.

• News Media: Profitability improved sharply on cost savings and higher pricing across circulation and subscriptions.

CEO commentary: "Clearly, our current cash position is robust, and we expect to generate strong free cash flow this fiscal year, and have thus materially increased the rate of our share buybacks. We believe our shares are undervalued, given the sum of our valuable parts and our profit trajectory, and we will continue to focus on ways and means to maximise shareholder value."

Company page: News Corp (NWS)

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Block set to tumble

[9:25 am] NYSE-listed Block shares currently down 9.6% after hours. The company's Q3 results broadly missed market expectations, including:

• Revenue of $6.12bn vs. $6.31bn ests (3.0% miss)

• Adjusted EBITDA of $832.7m vs. $840.2m ests (0.9% miss)

• EPS (ex-items) of 54 cents vs. 64 cents ests (15.6% miss)

Q4 guidance was relatively ahead, with gross profit forecast of $2.75bn vs. $2.72bn ests (1.3% beat) and operating income of $560m (ex-items) vs. $499.5m ests (12.1% beat).

Company page: Block (XYZ)

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Bitcoin back near US$100,000

[9:13 am] Bitcoin gave back Wednesday's bounce, with prices down 2.7% overnight and back near the US$100,000 level. Prices have now dipped ~19.7% since the 6-Oct record high of US$126,272.

Bitcoin daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Busy day of Fedspeak

[9:07 am] Fed officials remain divided on the pace of rate cuts. The key speakers overnight include:

• Fed Governor Miran expects a December rate cut and sees 50 basis points as appropriate, arguing restrictive policy risks a labour market downturn.

• Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed reluctance to continue cutting rates, citing stable labour market indicators and lack of inflation data,

• New York Fed President Williams noted models estimate the Neutral rate around 1% despite bond markets suggesting higher levels.

• Fed officials are increasingly focused on the K-shaped economy, with Governor Barr highlighting a significant gap between the upper 40% and everyone else, suggesting some low-hiring trends may be linked to AI adoption.

• Cleveland Fed President Hammack offered hawkish commentary, stating it will take a couple of years to reach the 2% inflation target and that current policy is barely restrictive if at all.

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Brainchip launches $30m placement

[9:04 am] Brainchip has launched a $30 million underwritten placement at 17.5 cents per share, a 10.2% discount to its last close.

Source: AFR

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Is this the K-shaped era?

[9:02 am] Growing concerns about a K-shaped economy are emerging as high-income households drive nearly half of total spending in the US, while corporate updates and consumer data paint an increasingly mixed picture of demand across different income segments.

• The top 10% of income households account for nearly half of total US spending, creating vulnerability if high-income consumers pull back, while the median age of first-time homebuyers hit a record 40 years as younger Americans struggle with student loans and high living costs.

• Homebuilders are struggling to sell properties even when offering 4% mortgages, suggesting rate cuts may not spark a housing rebound.

• CarMax preannounced a significant deceleration with retail unit sales now expected down 8-12% year-over-year versus mid-single digit consensus.

• Corporate earnings revealed softer US digital subscription trends and consumer packaged goods spending, while travel and leisure showed mixed results with hotels and Lyft performing better but TripAdvisor and parking worse.

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Altman backpedals on government guarantees.

[8:58 am] OpenAI CEO Sam Altman clarified the company does not want government guarantees for its data centres and pushed back bubble concerns.

Here are the key takeaways from his massive ~1,000 word post on X.

• OpenAI explicitly stated it does not seek government bailouts or data centre guarantees, stressing companies should fail if they make bad decisions, though it supports government-owned AI infrastructure where upside flows to taxpayers.

• Expects to exceed $20 billion in annualised revenue this year and projects growth to hundreds of billions by 2030, with plans to commit $1.4 trillion over eight years driven by enterprise offerings, consumer devices, robotics, and selling compute capacity directly.

• Altman clarified previous comments about government as "insurer of last resort" referred to catastrophic misuse scenarios like large-scale cyberattacks.

• OpenAI believes the risk of insufficient computing power outweighs overbuild risk, citing current rate-limiting constraints and the need to prepare for AI-driven scientific breakthroughs that require massive compute resources.

Source: X

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More AI deals: Apple and Snap

[8:55] Major tech companies are making billion-dollar bets on AI partnerships, with Apple reportedly paying Google $1 billion per annum for Gemini integration into Siri, while valuations and financing concerns draw increased scrutiny.

• Apple selected Google's Gemini over ChatGPT and Claude for its Siri upgrade in a $1 billion annual deal, though significantly smaller than the $20 billion Google Search default agreement.

• Snap will pay Perplexity $400 million over one year to integrate AI search features.

• Alphabet is in talks to invest in Anthropic at a valuation of more than $350 billion, nearly double its $183 billion valuation from September.

• OpenAI's CFO addressed bubble concerns and hinted at potential US government backstops for AI financing, though the company later clarified no immediate plans exist, while also confirming no current IPO efforts are underway.

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October job cuts highest in more than two decades

[8:53 am] US companies announced over 150,000 job cuts in October, according to data from from Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

• This represents an almost 100% increase vs. the prior month, nearly triple that of October 2024 and the most in more than two decades

• Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, up 65% year-on-year and up 44% from all of 2024

• Planned hires for the year totaled just 488,000, down 35% from the prior year and marking the weakest hiring outlook since 2011

• Displaced workers are struggling to find new roles quickly, which could accelerate labour market weakness and threaten consumer resilience as companies like Amazon, Meta, IBM, UPS, and Target announce cuts

• Layoff mentions on Q3 earnings calls have spiked to peak COVID levels, with companies citing AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs as key drivers of belt-tightening

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It's getting heavy out there

[8:42 am] Risk-off theme playing out overnight, with S&P 500 Tech and Discretionary sectors down 2.5% and 2.0% respectively. Sub-sectors like AI, retail favourites, most-shorted basket, nuclear, fintech and crypto plays among the high-profile decliners after some reprieve in the previous session.

S&P 500 undercut the 20-day (red). Hasn't traded below the 50-day (green) since 30 April. Will be interesting to see if it can catch a bid around these levels.

S&P 500 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:30 am] ASX 200 futures are up 2pts (+0.02%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

• Major US benchmarks lower (S&P 500 -1.12%, Dow -0.84%, Nasdaq -1.90%, Russell 2000 -1.63%) and closed near worst levels, with Tech and Discretionary sectors down more than 2.0%

• High volume of reporters, though high-profile names like Qualcomm, Arm Holdings And Applovin mostly lower despite better-than-expected numbers

• UK, Norway and Brazil central banks hold rates, while Fed Hammack and Goolsbee lean against more rate cuts

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.