Evening Wrap: ASX 200 flat as rising crude oil drags on mining and tech stocks – CSL and STO provide defensive support

The ASX 200 fell as Brent crude surged above US$107/bbl — its highest level since before the interim Iran deal — rekindling inflation fears and sending benchmark bond yields sharply higher. Gold, copper, and commodity producers bore the brunt; while in energy, Santos (STO) (+1.6%) and in defensive healthcare, CSL (CSL) (+2.7%) were rare beneficiaries within a market that feels increasingly on edge... 😬

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let’s dive in!

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished points higher at 8,749.9, roughly mid-range, 0.18% from its session low and 0.21% from its high. Despite the gain at benchmark level, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 134 to 142.

+13 points in the closing price auction. Easy as you please. That's +0.15% on a day that was up 8 points / +0.1%.

And I don't have to tell you where... Financials (XFJ) (+0.43%) intraday chart below...

S&P/ASX 200 Financials Sector Index intraday chart

+0.36% in an instant. In a sector that didn't even look like adding that much for the 6 hours of regular, transparent trading.

That's what the closing JUICING auction is 🧃– a place where the big funds can pretty much chose the closing print of the ASX 200. Oh well, it is what is is: The OTP at its finest! 😉

To be fair, some of the juicing also seeped into Materials (XMJ) (-0.55%), but to a lesser extent (i.e., the sector isn't as juicy as the big banks!).

S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (XMR)intraday chart

It was not reflected in other areas of the market, like Information Technology (XIJ) (-1.1%) or Healthcare (XHJ) (+1.5%), although the latter was the clear standout sector of the session. It's just about bang for buck, the the biggest bang is in the banks! 💥

S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Sector Index intraday chart (top) and S&P/ASX 200 Health Care Sector Index intraday chart (bottom)

In commodity sector moves, uranium stocks extended their losing run after the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF fell 4.1% in New York on Friday — a decline that cascaded directly into local names with force disproportionate to any change in the underlying commodity price (uranium futures flat on Friday). Deep Yellow (DYL) (-8.8%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (-6.9%), NexGen Energy (NXG) (-4.5%), Bannerman Energy (BMN) (-2.8%), and Silex Systems (SLX) (-2.2%) were all sharply lower.

Lithium stocks sagged again as benchmark GFEX lithium carbonate futures in China closed at their lowest level since 31 December 2025. They're now trading more than 35% below the May peak, approaching territory that calls into question the economic viability of several high-cost projects. Mineral Resources (MIN) (-4.4%), Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) (-3.8%), IGO (IGO) (-3.4%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-2.4%), and Elevra Lithium (ELV) (-2.1%) were all lower.

GFEX lithium carbonate futures intraday chart. Source: SMM

Analysis

Friday's candle is the precise reason why you always hear me say: Never count out the Comp in a bull market! 🫒

But consider just as much (another of my random phrases of wisdom! 😉): In choppy markets, traders get chopped up! That's why we reduce RP when the trends aren't in agreement.

First, yep, just as the background bearish noise nagging at financial markets reached fever pitch on Friday (think soaring bond yields – up again, fed hike expectations, stagflation claims etc. etc.) the Comp gaps up! It didn't just go up, it traded for the whole session at a price range above Thursday's range.

That's just how the Comp rolls!

Second, consider, if one was too short (because of all the said bearish background rhetoric), one got chopped on one's shorts on Friday. 🪓

Third, consider that at the time of me writing this sentence, Comp futures are down 322 points or 1.1%, as probably – traders have recalled all the said bearish background rhetoric! 🤦

Equals: one will likely get chopped on one's longs tonight. 🪓

The bottom line is: In choppy markets, traders get chopped up! That's why we reduce RP when the trends aren't in agreement. (Hmmm... sound familiar!? 🤔)

Chop, chop, chop! But not for me! Nope, not this little black duck!

View

1/2RP. (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).

Key Levels

26701-863 is the closest key point of supply vs 25910-95 as the closest key point of demand, and then the long term trend ribbon (presently 24258-25146).

Analysis

Another market analogy (as macabre as it is...):

Even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great enough height

It means that a small bounce following a big one doesn't alter the state of animation of the cat. The cat remains deceased! 🙀

In technical analysis, it kinda looks like today's candle. The regular financial media will report on today's gain, blissfully oblivious to the underlying message the price action tells us.

We know better. And we know that "gain" was juiced anyway! 🧃

Add in the fact that:

• The short term trend ribbon has transitioned to pink ⚠️

• The price action is below the short term downtrend ribbon and the short term downtrend ribbon is acting as a zone of dynamic demand ⚠️

• The price action is falling peaks and falling troughs (i.e., NUTE + FOHO + STR!) ⚠️

• The candles are predominantly supply side in nature ⚠️

• The long term trend ribbon has transitioned to amber ⚖️

• The price is below the long term trend ribbon ⚠️

And our Analysis concludes: ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚖️⚠️

You can do what you must do, but for me, I must Accept that under such circumstances, at least in the very short term: P ⬇️ is a MOTN proposition...

View

Which is precisely why I'm at 1/3RP on Australian shares (i.e., 33% of my capital allocated to ASX shares invested vs 67% cash).

Key Levels

8935-40 is likely to now act as a zone of supply, but the short term trend ribbon (presently 8987-8993) is most likely the biggest barrier the OTP will have to contend with on the way back up. 8708-8656 is the next key zone of demand.

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)

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TODAY

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today...

LATER THIS WEEK

TUESDAY

• 11:30 CHN August Data Dump

  • New Home Prices: no forecast available vs -0.18% m/m in July

  • Fixed Asset Investment: -7.0% ytd/p.a. forecast vs -6.7% ytd/p.a. in July

  • Industrial Production: +4.8% p.a. forecast vs +4.5% p.a. in July

  • Retail Sales: +0.8% p.a. forecast vs +0.6% p.a. in July

  • Unemployment Rate: 5.2% forecast vs 5.2% in July

WEDNESDAY

• 22:30 USA August Core Retail Sales (+0.5% m/m forecast vs -0.3% m/m previous)

THURSDAY

• 04:00 USA FOMC Meeting

  • Federal Funds Rate: +0.25% p.a. forecast to 3.75% to 4.0% p.a.

  • FOMC Statement & Economic Projections

  • Kevin Warsh press conference at 04:30

• 22:30 USA August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (28.9 forecast vs 47.4 in August)

FRIDAY

• 09:30 Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Rate (+0.25% p.a. forecast to 1.25% to 1.0% p.a.)