Evening Wrap: ASX 200 flat as iron ore, copper rally drives mining, big banks, real estate sag on rising bond yields

The ASX 200 closed unchanged after a late institutional buying order in the final minutes pulled the benchmark back from a 0.5% loss, as President Trump reimposed a Strait of Hormuz blockade and oil surged nearly 10% overnight — its biggest single-day jump since 2020.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let’s dive in!

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished steady at 8,808.5, 0.57% from its session low and smack–bang on its session high. Despite the apparent showing of stability at the benchmark level, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 129 to 152.

Energy (XEJ) (+2.0%) was the logical winner today — ICE Brent crude futures surged 9.6% overnight before adding a further 2.7% to US$85.54/bbl in Asian trade after President Trump announced the US would restart its blockade on Iranian ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% fee on all other cargo.

Coal stocks were among the biggest movers — globalCoal Newcastle Coal futures gained 1.8% to US$131.50/t — with Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (+3.1%) and Yancoal Australia (YAL) (+2.8%) leading the coal cohort. Oil and gas producers Woodside Energy (WDS) (+3.0%) and Karoon Energy (KAR) (+3.8%) were also strongly higher, alongside fuel retailer Ampol (ALD) (+2.2%).

Utilities (XUJ) (+1.4%) tracked energy directly — Origin Energy (ORG) (+2.1%), whose substantial LNG production exposure ties its fortunes closely to the crude price, was the primary driver of the sector's gain.

S&P-ASX 200 Materials Index (XMR) intraday chart

Materials (XMJ) (+0.7%) broke the usual inverse relationship between rising oil and mining stocks, and the explanation is not as counterintuitive as it first appears — conflict-related supply chain disruption also threatens the delivery of industrial commodities, and traders appear to be pricing that risk into base metals demand expectations.

COMEX copper futures gained 1.6% to US$6.375/lb and SGX iron ore futures rose 1.6% to US$100.10/t — the first close back above the US$100 threshold in weeks. South32 (S32) (+2.0%), Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+1.5%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (+1.5%), Fortescue (FMG) (+1.3%), and Champion Iron (CIA) (+0.8%) all gained.

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+0.6%) also bucked the script — gold and silver typically fall on days when oil surges, as higher energy prices stoke inflation expectations and push bond yields up, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals. That script played out in the form of heavy falls overnight, but each rallied in Asian trade, with COMEX gold futures +0.6% to US$4,031/oz and COMEX silver futures +0.9% to US$58.50/oz. Evolution Mining (EVN) (+3.2%), Bellevue Gold (BGL) (+2.3%), and Regis Resources (RRL) (+2.0%) led the recovery.

S&P-ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Sector Index intraday chart

Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+0.4%) delivered a counterintuitive positive session on a day when higher oil prices would normally compress household disposable income and weigh on spending-sensitive stocks. The answer lies in which consumer discretionary sub-sector attracted the flows — value-oriented fast food and convenience dining, which tends to capture spending that might otherwise go to more expensive alternatives in a cost-of-living squeeze. Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP) (+5.0%), Collins Foods (CKF) (+1.7%), and Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) (+1.1%) all surged, while most other consumer discretionary names fell.

S&P-ASX 200 Health Care Sector Index intraday chart

Health Care (XHJ) (+0.7%) caught a bid in the closing auction as institutions deployed residual cash into the market's most liquid defensive names. Sonic Healthcare (SHL) (+2.3%), Cochlear (COH) (+1.6%), CSL (CSL) (+1.3%), and Ramsay Health Care (RHC) (+1.3%) all advanced.

S&P-ASX 200 Financials Sector Index intraday chart

Financials (XFJ) (-0.5%) were caught in the same rising-yield headwind as real estate — higher benchmark yields reduce the net interest margin advantage that lower rates provide and raise credit quality concerns as borrowing costs increase. A late buy order in the closing auction limited the damage, with QBE Insurance (QBE) (+1.1%) the sector's sole notable positive mover against declines from all four major banks. ANZ (ANZ) (-1.0%), National Australia Bank (NAB) (-0.8%), Westpac (WBC) (-0.7%), and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (-0.4%) all finished lower.

S&P-ASX 200 Real Estate Sector Index chart

Real Estate (XPJ) (-1.6%) was the session's worst performer as benchmark bond yields shot higher overnight in response to the oil surge — when yields rise, the stable income streams of property trusts face stiffer competition from risk-free government bonds, reducing their relative appeal. Goodman Group (GMG) (-2.7%) and Charter Hall (CHC) (-1.3%) were the sharpest fallers.

Sprott Uranium Miners ETF chart

Uranium stocks extended their horror run as global uranium equities collapsed overnight — the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF fell 5.8% in New York — with no specific news apparent as the trigger. Silex Systems (SLX) (-9.5%), Paladin Energy (PDN) (-6.0%), Deep Yellow (DYL) (-5.4%), Bannerman Energy (BMN) (-4.0%), and Boss Energy (BOE) (-3.8%) all fell sharply.

Analysis

Not quite the candle my 'gut feel' from yesterday was anticipating! But we know the next candle is unknown – particularly when You Know Who decides to make the news.

And the news (i.e., Middle East conflict escalation) wasn't conducive to a follow through of the last 3 demand side showings. Nor, however, was it a total wipeout of the demand side / harbinger of total supply side control, either.

It's in keeping with the broader state of equilibrium. Until we see a strong challenge of 26789-27191, the MOTN lies with: D still equals S still equals P ➡️.

Hence why, despite what my gut said yesterday, I remained at 1/2RP. Perhaps the Analysis had improved, but I just couldn't yet Accept it was time to Act by increasing my risk exposure.

There's so little to add to my standing analysis that I think I'll leave it there. As in, tell me how last night's candle definitively proves that P ➡️ MOTN is no longer the case? 🤷

And that's the key to good trading. BUY-SELL-BUY-SELL-BUY-SELL-BUY-SELL!!! Trade, trade, trade! Must be IN all the time or I will MISS OUT!

It took me more than10 hard years of banging my head against the day trading brick wall to figure out that doing nothing – when the odds are stacked against one's method – is very much doing something. 💯

It's preserving capital. But more importantly: it's preserving sanity!

View

I am at 1/2RP on my US portfolio (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).

Key Levels

Dead simple! 26789-27191 is the key zone of supply vs 24980-25015 is the key zone of demand. In between = 1/2RP vs >= FRP and <= 1/3RP.

Analysis

For most of the session it looked like an 'unjuiced' performance for Aussie shares.

Until about 14:15, when a very 'juicy' buy order kicked in and hoovered up mainly banks, discretionary and healthcare. 11 points just in the closing juicing session, sorry, I mean the closing price auction. 🧃

Juiced or not, that's a decent candle, albeit very, very small. 🔬

It's also very much in keeping with our observations over the last couple of weeks now: as bad as the OTP looks most of the time, an invisible hand seems to step in when it looks precarious to massage prices higher into the close.

We're technical analysts. So we don't give a flying fig as to who is doing what or why they're doing it. Simply: we note that we can see active BTD in the system.

Which is usually pretty good for skewing MOTN towards P ⬆️.

BUT! The rest of the technical picture still screams of MOTN P ➡️.

And the best thing to do when MOTN P ➡️ is, well, nothing! Sit on one's hands and wait for a strong trend to present itself. 🧘

There are probably very few stock markets around the world where this is more true than here, at home, on our beloved OTP.

We are witnessing one of the truly great periods of malaise – and for a market synonymous with malaise – that's saying something! 🤦

(Checks donut savings account... Yep, still 5% p.a. ✅ = Sitting on one's hands = Sitting on one's cash ✅)

(Here's a thought: What happens if the invisible hand stops juicing!? 🤔 )

View

I'm 1/2RP on my Aussie portfolio ⚖️ (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).

Key Levels

8984-9022 is the key zone of supply, while demand is at 8708-8656 (now more than ever!).

(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)

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Today

Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index. Source: Westpac Economics, Melbourne Institute

• AUS July Westpac Consumer Sentiment

  • Result: +4.1% to 83.9 (consider that readings below 100 indicate consumer pessimism – so Aussie consumers were moderately less pessimistic in July!)

  • Reader: Moderating fears around fuel prices and interest rate increases by the RBA helped improve consumer outlook, but consumers remain "gloomy" on the economy and towards purchasing major items, according to Westpac Economics.

NAB Monthly Business Survey. Source: National Australia Bank

• AUS NAB July Business Confidence

  • Result: Confidence rose 9 points to -5 points vs Conditions steady +3 points

  • Reader: Very similar to consumers, business operators felt more confident about their outlook in June as oil prices pulled back and fears of a deeper conflict in the Middle East subsided. Purchase costs moderated, which meant that businesses were able to moderate their output prices. Retail and manufacturing saw the greatest recoveries in confidence. Despite the improvement, June's result is consistent with a slowing in business activity growth in the first half of the year.

Tuesday

• 22:30 USA June Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (+0.2% m/m and +2.8% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% m/m and +2.9% p.a. in May)

Wednesday

• 00:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Keven Warsh testifies to the House Financial Services Committee Day 1

• 12:00 CHN June 'Data Dump'

  • New Home Prices: was -0.20% m/m in May

  • Fixed Asset Investment: forecast -5.0% ytd/y vs -4.1% ytd/y in May

  • GDP: 4.5% p.a. in June quarter forecast vs 5.0% p.a. in March quarter

  • Industrial Production: +4.7% p.a. forecast vs +4.5% p.a. in May

  • Retail Sales: -0.1% p.a. forecast vs -0.6% p.a. in May

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.7% forecast vs 4.5% in May

• 22:30 USA June Core Producer Price Index (PPI) (+0.4% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in May)

Thursday

• 00:00 USA Federal Reserve Chairman Keven Warsh testifies to the House Financial Services Committee Day 2

• 22:30 USA June Core Retail Sales (flat m/m forecast vs +0.8% m/m in May)

Friday

• 23:15 USA June Building Permits & Housing Starts (1.4 million and 1.31 million forecast vs 1.41 million and 1.18 million in May)

• 23:15 USA June Industrial Production (+0.2% m/m forecast vs 0.1% m/m in May)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA July Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (51.0 forecast vs 49.5 (revised up from 48.9) in June)