Evening Wrap: ASX 200 down 10 points in soft start to new week; miners continue to rip higher

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 9.7 points lower, down 0.11%.

In a nutshell:

• ASX 200 followed US markets lower from Friday night

• Traders also digested Trump's weekend announcement of 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico

• Strong mining sector performance continued

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 closed down 9.7 points (Source: Market Index)

Markets

• ASX 200 closed modestly weaker in a directionless session - traders awaiting further catalysts

• Materials (+0.54%) continued their strong run from last week, with BHP (+0.9%) and Rio Tinto (+0.6%) benefiting from iron ore prices edging closer to $100/tonne as rotation continued into the sector

• Energy (+0.53%) sector also finished higher, led by uranium miners - Deep Yellow (+4%), Paladin (+2.9%), Boss Energy (+2%), and Silex Systems (+4.3%) alongside modest gains in Woodside and Santos

• Safe-haven demand boosted gold miners with Northern Star (+1.7%), Evolution (+1.9%), and Newmont (+1.7%) rising as bullion traded near US$3,373/ounce

• Not to be outdone, silver stocks surged broadly with Unico Silver (+27%), Silver Mines (+20%), and Sun Silver (+19%) as silver prices hit 14-year highs above $38/ounce

• Not faring so well were industrials (-0.57%) and consumer discretionary (-0.48%) names

• Tech stocks also came under pressure with mid-cap names retreating - Zip (-2.8%), Appen (-3.2%), and Block (-5.3%) fell as risk-off sentiment prevailed

Economy

• China's export growth accelerated to 5.8% year-on-year in June (vs 4.8% in May) with trade surplus hitting a record $115 billion as exporters rush to beat looming tariff deadlines

• Trump escalated trade threats over the weekend, announcing 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico from August 1, adding to existing 35% threat on Canada as negotiation deadlines approach without agreements

• Chinese iron ore imports jumped 8.5% year-on-year in June to 105.95 million tonnes, while rare earth exports surged 32% month-on-month as steelmakers boosted stockpiles

• US inflation data due Tuesday will be closely watched for tariff impact with core CPI expected to accelerate annually for the first time since January to 2.9% in June

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +16.97% Droneshield Ltd (DRO) – R&D and Manufacturing expansion

• +15.52% Electro Optic Systems Holdings Ltd (EOS) – In sympathy with DRO

• +12.71% MTM Critical Metals Ltd (MTM) – Also exposed to the defence space (it's hot right now), with DRO and EOS

• +10.88% Hansen Technologies Ltd (HSN) – Upgraded EBITDA guidance

• +9.63% Macquarie Technology Group Ltd (MAQ) – Proposed land acquisition

• +9.52% 29METALS Ltd (29M) – No news

Trading lower

• -9.26% Betr Entertainment Ltd (BBT) – Trading update

• -6.90% Synlait Milk Ltd (SM1) – More volatility on new news

• -6.45% Botanix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (BOT) – Wild ride continues

• -5.76% Tourism Holdings Rentals Ltd (THL) – No news

• -3.23% Strickland Metals Ltd (STK) – Large copper-gold porphyry exploration commences

Broker Notes

Ampol (ALD)

• Retained at Buy at UBS; Price Target: $31.50 from $31.10

AMP (AMP)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.65 from $1.30

Arena REIT (ARF)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.96

Abacus Storage King (ASK)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.40

• Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.65

Brickworks (BKW)

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $34.25

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $3.20

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.31 from $17.15

Champion Iron (CIA)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.40 from $5.80

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.22 from $3.34

Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW)

• Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.52 from $3.73

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.79 from $1.78

COG Financial Services (COG)

• Retained at Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $1.87 from $1.72

Computershare (CPU)

• Downgraded to Underweight from Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $33.70 from $34.40

Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR)

• Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.51

Clearview Wealth (CVW)

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.68 from $0.67

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.35 from $5.33

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.86 from $3.18

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.50 from $8.08

Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV)

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.58 from $0.49

Generation Development Group (GDG)

• Retained at Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $6.00 from $6.04

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.24 from $36.06

Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

• Downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.57

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.36 from $5.04

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.91 from $1.05

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.15 from $1.14

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.20

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.65

• Retained at Accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.50 from $5.90

Johns Lyng Group (JLG)

• Downgraded to Negative from Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $4.00 from $4.44

• Retained at Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.20

Kina Securities (KSL)

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.46 from $1.44

Kinatico (KYP)

• Initiated at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.30

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.23 from $7.79

Lotus Resources (LOT)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.31

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Downgraded to Sell from Hold at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $7.50

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.50

MA Financial Group (MAF)

• Retained at Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $8.80 from $8.23

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.38 from $2.56

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.44 from $2.42

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $1.00

• Retained at Buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.22

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.05

Origin Energy (ORG)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.00 from $11.50

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Downgraded to Negative from Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $5.00 from $5.70

PEXA Group (PXA)

• Downgraded to Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $13.93 from $13.90

Qualitas (QAL)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.73 from $3.10

Region Group (RGN)

• Upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.16 from $2.03

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.18 from $3.34

SiteMinder (SDR)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $6.45 from $6.60

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.23 from $5.39

SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

• Initiated at Overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $2.36

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at Accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $22.89 from $22.33

Tyro Payments (TYR)

• Retained at Buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.51

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.04 from $2.11

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $210.00

Scans