Evening Wrap: ASX 200 closes lower to bookend losing week; miners (rare earths) the bright spot

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 9.1 points lower, down 0.11%.

In a nutshell:

• ASX 200 fell slightly today and over the week, down 0.11% and 0.26% respectively

• Gains in miners were offset by weakness in real estate, technology, and retail sectors

• Rare earths plays surged on Pentagon investment

• Markets getting jittery as Trump's tariff extension nears

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 closed down 9.1 points (Source: Market Index)

Markets

• The Aussie market fell slightly over the week, locking in just its third weekly loss in the past 13 weeks

• Over that period, the ASX 200 has rallied around 12%

• The Materials sector (+1.82%) once again led the market, with BHP rising 2.8%, Rio Tinto up 2.3%, and Fortescue gaining 2.9% as iron ore futures hit a two-month high near US$100 per tonne

• Rare earths miners also received a massive boost, following news of a US$400 million Pentagon investment in US producer MP Materials. Lynas and Iluka surged 16.7% and 22.9% respectively

• Aside from the miners, there wasn't much to cheer, with every other major sector closing in the red

• Property and tech stocks were hardest hit, with both sectors down more than 1% each.

• In the property space, Goodman Group was down 1.8%, GPT Group down 1.4%, and Mirvac down 1.8% after recent gains

• In the tech space, Xero fell 1.5%, TechnologyOne fell 2.5%, and Life360 fell 1.5%

Economy

• Trump's tariffs are firmly back in focus and having a big impact on markets

• Trump announced 35% tariffs on Canadian goods effective August 1 and floated 15-20% blanket tariffs on most trading partners, up from the current 10% rate

• This came after Trump threatened Brazil with 50% tariffs earlier in the week

• An adviser to the People's Bank of China said the central bank should add as much as 1.5 trillion yuan ($209 billion) in fresh stimulus to boost consumer spending and counter US tariff impacts

• Singapore iron ore futures rallied to two-month highs, supported by improved Chinese CPI data released earlier this week

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +22.33% Johns LYNG Group Ltd (JLG) – agrees to a $1 billion takeover by Pacific Equity Partners at $4 per share

• +22.86% Iluka Resources Ltd (ILU) – Pentagon rare earths news

• +16.65% Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC) – Pentagon rare earths news

• +15.55% Iperionx Ltd (IPX) – No news - technical breakout

• +12.00% Meteoric Resources NL (MEI) – No news - technical breakout

• +8.00% Santana Minerals Ltd (SMI) – No news

Trading lower

• -13.00% Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd (VUL) – Strategic institutional placement

• -8.97% Ora Banda Mining Ltd (OBM) – Results and guidance

• -6.35% Catalyst Metals Ltd (CYL) – No news

• -6.06% Botanix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (BOT) – Wild ride continues

• -5.68% Firefly Metals Ltd (FFM) – Doubles share purchase plan

• -4.44% Beetaloo Energy Australia Ltd (BTL) – No news

Broker Notes

Amcor Plc (AMC)

• Retained at Hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $14.50 from $14.00

Bannerman Energy (BMN)

• Initiated at Overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $3.10

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.30 from $5.15

Cuscal (CCL)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.75

Challenger (CGF)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $9.20 from $7.55

Computershare (CPU)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $40.90

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.17 from $0.19

Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.80 from $13.07

Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

• Retained at Accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.00

Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.05 from $1.70

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $7.40

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $16.05 from $22.34

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Initiated at Overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $6.20

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at Hold at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $4.00

GQG Partners Inc. (GQG)

• Retained at Buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.00

Hillgrove Resources (HGO)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.08

Insurance Australia Group (IAG)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.20

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at Hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.00 from $3.60

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.50 from $5.50

Iluka Resources (ILU)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.50

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Upgraded to Hold from Sell at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.50

• Retained at Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.55

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Upgraded to Buy from Underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $10.00 from $6.40

• Retained at Underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.00

Mac Copper (MAC)

• Downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $19.00 from $20.50

Macquarie Group (MQG)

• Retained at Equal weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $216.00

Netwealth Group (NWL)

• Retained at Hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $34.50 from $26.40

• Retained at Hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $35.50 from $31.60

• Retained at Neutral at E&P; Price Target: $33.40 from $31.00

• Retained at Overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $29.75

• Retained at Sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $29.00 from $28.00

• Retained at Neutral at UBS; Price Target: $35.00 from $27.00

• Retained at Hold at Unified Capital Partners; Price Target: $35.70 from $30.10

Paladin Energy (PDN)

• Retained at Buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $10.10

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Retained at Buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.70

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.50 from $2.40

Perpetual (PPT)

• Retained at Neutral at Citi; Price Target: $21.00 from $18.25

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Upgraded to Accumulate from Hold at Morgans; Price Target: $5.20

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at Neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.60

Sayona Mining (SYA)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.02 from $0.04

Turaco Gold (TCG)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.10 from $1.00

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $34.00

Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.45

• Retained at Speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.75 from $0.50

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

• Retained at Speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.50

WEB Travel Group (WEB)

• Retained at Outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.19

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at Buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.10 from $7.40

Wisetech Global (WTC)

• Retained at Buy at Citi; Price Target: $127.40

Scans