ASX 200 Live Today - Friday, 11th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Friday, July 11. We’re excited to be trialing this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 lower as miner gains fails to offset broad weakness

[4:30 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 finished 9 points lower (-0.11%) in a relatively quiet session, with Materials strength (+1.82%) unable to offset weakness across the other ten sectors.

Mid-session volatility emerged when Trump announced plans to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods starting August 1, driving modest weakness between 10:08 am and 12 pm.

For the week, the market closed down 0.27%, following the previous week's 1.04% rally. Overall, markets continue to showcase resilience around record levels, displaying an unwillingness to move decisively higher or lower despite negative catalysts like Tuesday's unexpected RBA hold. Let's see what next week brings. Have a good weekend everyone!

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Best and worst performing stocks of the week

[3:06 pm] With one hour left of trade, let's take a look at some of this week's best and worst performing S&P/ASX 200 stocks.

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MinRes and Fortescue trying to bottom

[2:37 pm] The charts for Mineral Resources and Fortescue (among many other resource-related stocks) are starting to look constructive, as both stocks attempt to break out to five-month highs and test key moving averages like the 200-day.

Lithium prices are starting to bottom, with Chinese lithium carbonate futures up for a 14th straight day to 64,340 yuan a tonne. While Singapore iron ore futures have gained 2.8% in the last two sessions to US$98.1 a tonne.

Mineral Resources daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

Fortescue daily price chart (Source: TradingView)

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Lynas settling around 16pc gain

[1:52 pm] Lynas is setting around a 16% gain to $9.65, down from session highs of 19.5%.

I'm currently working on a deeper dive into the DoD and MP Materials news. Here are some of my key takeaways:

• The most significant development is that the US government is willing to pay US$110/kg for NdPr — double the current market rate

• For context, Lynas was selling NdPr at US$53/kg in the March quarter 2025, representing only a modest improvement from the high US$40s that characterised most of FY24

• This remains well below Lynas's peak of US$145/kg achieved in February 2022 during the rare earths boom

• The government's willingness to pay double current prices over ten years sends a powerful signal to the ex-China industry

• The key question is whether this can materially lift NdPr spot prices or create a mechanism for Lynas and other producers to capture similar premiums

Lynas intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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ASX 200 continues to slip

[12:41 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 continues to trend lower, currently down 0.15%, as resource sector strength has been offset by weakness across all other sectors. This broad-based decline is reflected in market breadth, with 144 S&P/ASX 200 constituents (72%) trading flat or lower.

Source: Market Index

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ASX 200 slips back to breakeven

[11:15 am] The S&P/ASX 200 is trading flat after a brief 0.36% gain in early trade.

Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada at 10:08 am. The tariffs will come into effect on 1 August.

The letter also noted "if for any reason you decide to raise your tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 35% that we charge."

ASX 200 intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Small caps making moves

[11:04 am] Here are the top small caps ($200m to $1bn market cap) gainers and losers in early trade.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers in early trade

[10:34 am] Massive jump for key resource stocks.

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Materials Index nears four-month high

[10:25 am] The S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index has surged 2.08% in early trade, recouping the losses its suffered in the recent 4-9 Jul pullback.

The Index is making its second attempt (in recent days) at pushing above the key 200-day moving average.

S&P/ASX 200 Materials daily chart (Source: TradingView)

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Lynas and Iluka surge

[10:18 am] Lynas and Iluka shares are currently up 17% and 25% respectively, driven by the catalyst noted in the prior post.

The Pentagon's US$400 million investment in MP Metals and commitment to buying NdPr at US$110/kg (I think current spot is around US$55/kg) is driving peers like Lynas and Iluka sharply higher.

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Eyes on Lynas

[9:55 am] MP Metals owns the only operational rare earth mine in the US, and the stock rallied 50% overnight after the Pentagon invested US$400 million in the company.

This could give the US government a 15% stake, surpassing individual stakes held by the CEO and BlackRock.

The Department of Defence guaranteed off-take and price floor, agreeing to buy 100% of magnet output for 10 years and guaranteeing a minimum price of US$110/kg for NdPr oxide, ensuring financial certainty for MP while protecting against market downside.

This could drive positive flows into another strategic name like Lynas, which is trading up 10.9% in premarket.

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NBN and fibre upgrade wins for Ventia, Service Stream

[9:45 am] Ventia was awarded additional fibre upgrade works with NBN Co valued at $280 million over the next three and a half years, with works expected to commence in mid-July.

This follows an ~$800 million contract win, over the same duration, on 11 June. Interestingly, the stock finished the session down 1.6%.

Service Stream was also awarded a further NBN fibre upgrade agreement, expected to deliver $360 million in revenue over the three and a half year project duration.

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Li-S Energy produces Australia's first lithium metal foils

[9:39 am] Li-S Energy announced the successful production of Australia’s first lithium metal foils at its advanced battery cell production facility in Geelong, Victoria.

The announcement noted:

• Establishes new sovereign manufacturing capability, supporting Australian battery supply chain resilience for both commercial and defence applications

• Eliminates reliance on imported lithium foils, reducing cost, delays, and quality risks

• Enables tighter control over foil purity and thickness, improving cell performance and production throughput

• Positions LIS for revenue opportunities in global markets seeking high-purity lithium foil

The stock has showcased some extraordinary moves/volatility following major announcements, including:

• 28-Oct-24: Achieved 500Wh/kg lithium-sulfur cell performance, shares up 54% (~75% intraday high) and briefly up another 100% the next day

• 25-Jun-25: Signs collaboration agreement for defence testing, shares up 22% (~59.5% intraday high)

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Li-S Energy (LIS)

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John Lyng agrees to $1.1bn takeover

[9:25 am] John Lyng has entered into a scheme implementation deed with Pacific Equity Partners for $1.1 billion or $4.00 cash per share.

The takeover represents a 25.7% premium to the stock's last close of $3.18 on Thursday.

Independent directors unanimously recommend shareholders to vote in favour of the scheme.

On a side note, this will mark another loss for the ASX-listed building materials/construction space. In the past couple of years, we've lost several high-profile names like Boral (acquired by SGH), CSR, Adbri and Brickworks (to merge with Soul Patts).

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: John Lyng (JLG)

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Ora Banda misses consensus for FY26

[9:22 am] Ora Banda reported FY25 gold production of 92.4koz vs. its guidance of 95koz, generating free cash flow of $57.4 million.

This is a fairly poor outcome considering:

• OBM downgraded its FY25 guidance on 30 April to 100-105koz from prior 100-110koz, while lifting its AISC guidance by 18% to $2,350-2,500/oz (shares down 6% on the day of the announcement)

• OBM downgraded its FY25 guidance again on 6 June, lowering production to ~95koz (down 5-10%) and AISC to A$2,600 (4% top end of prior guidance). This drove the stock 14% lower on the day of the announcement

• OBM shares have slumped 34% from 7 June to 10 July

OBM guided to FY26 production of 140-155koz at an AISC of A$2,800-2,900/oz.

The only research I have is from Macquarie (dated 1 May, so it doesn't take into account the 6 June downgrade). The analysts forecasted FY26 gold production of 150.4koz at an AISC at A$1,942.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Ora Banda (OBM)

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Blackstone walks away from Pepper Money talks

[9:07 am] Blackstone was reportedly running the ruler over Pepper Money, but walked away due to price, according to The Australian.

Majority shareholder KKR was seeing a valuation around $1.8 billion while Blackstone was steering close to $1 billion.

[Source: The Australian]

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Brazil hit with 50% tariff

[9:05 am] Trump threatens a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, far exceeding the 10% levied under his earlier global tariff plan, escalating tensions with Latin America’s largest economy.

The tariff attack was justified on political grounds, with Trump flagging Brazil's alleged “attacks on Free Elections” and censorship of US social media platforms.

Bank of America analysts noted that the weaker Brazilian reais covers half the tariff increase, while Brazil's key exports can be re-routed to other markets.

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Trump sends out seven more letters

[8:59 am] Trump sent letters to at least seven more countries overnight, including Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. This follows a previous round targeting 14 others earlier in the week.

The tariff rates range from 20% to 40%, with Trump indicating they may be adjusted based on bilateral relationships, suggesting tariffs are being used as leverage in foreign policy.

Trump asserting these tariffs are “far less than what is needed” to fix the US trade deficit. This is despite economists widely disputing the idea that deficits inherently harm the U.S. economy.

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Vulcan Energy raises $53 million

[8:55 am] Vulcan Energy has completed a €30 million (A$53.6m) strategic placement to "maintain execution of critical path scope for the Phase One Lionheart Project."

The placement was priced at $3.40 per share or a 15% discount to its last closing price of $4.00. BNP Paribas’ Clean Energy Solutions Fund was a corner-stone investor, contributing €15 million to the placement.

A select group of strategic corporate and institutional investors participated for the remaining half.

Source: ASX Announcement | Company page: Vulcan Energy (VUL)

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What's driving stocks?

[8:48 am] A very strong overnight session, with several key benchmarks scoring fresh all-time highs despite some tariff-related volatility.

Here are my key overnight highlights:

• UK FTSE 100 hit a second consecutive all-time high, driven largely by miners. The index is now up more than 9% year-to-date, its best annual performance so far in four years

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit all-time highs

• US breadth was positive, it wasn't just a handful of big tech stocks powering the market. The Equal-weight S&P 500 Index (+0.58%) outperformed the official benchmark by 31 bps

• Oil prices fell 2% after reports OPEC discussing a pause in further production increases from October

• Trump said 50% copper tariffs will go into effect on 1-Aug and hit Brazil with a 50% tariff rate

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Good morning!

[8:33 am] S&P/ASX 200 futures are up 27pts (+0.31%), suggesting the market will have a crack at all-time highs.

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.