Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall, S&P 500 retreats from record as Trump escalates tariff threats, Silver prices surge

ASX 200 futures are down 13pts (-0.15%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished broadly lower, with the S&P 500 slightly lower for the week and breaking two straight weeks of gains

• Trump said he plans to hit Canada, Mexico and the EU with 30-35% tariffs from 1 August if trade deals don't progress, also threatened a 15-20% baseline tariff on most trading partners

• Gold prices bounced, silver hit the highest level since 2011 and Bitcoin hit record levels

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower but off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks finished lower but off worst levels, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq easing from record closes on Thursday

• US weekly recap: Nasdaq (-0.08%), S&P 500 (-0.31%), Russell 2000 (-0.63%), Dow (-1.02%)

• Today’s big story – Pickup in tariff volatility, with Trump plans to hit Canada with a 35% tariff on 1-Aug, also EU and Mexico with 30% on 1-Aug if better terms are not negotiated

• Trump emboldened to ratchet up tariff threats as markets rally, partly driven by TACO narrative (WP)

• Investors worried about market complacency when it comes to threats to US exceptionalism trade from Trump's policies (FT)

• Earnings expected to slowest growth in two years in Q2, five key themes include low bar, tariffs, outsized AI spending, softer Europe and weak US dollar (BBG)

• Goldman Sachs upgrades Hong Kong and raises Asia stock price targets, citing favorable macro environment and lower tariff risk (BBG)

• Bitcoin hits new all-time high, driven by institutional demand and supportive US policies (RT)

• IEA forecasts slowest oil demand growth since 2009 outside of pandemic, doubts Russia can sustain oil capacity (BBG)

STOCKS

• Online spending jumped US$24.1bn, or 30.3% during the Amazon Prime Day stretch from July 8-11, nearly 300 bp better than expected (CNBC)

• Google to pay $2.4bn to license technology of AI coding startup Windsurf and will hire its CEO and some employees (CNBC)

• Apple lines up new products for 1H26, including budget iPhone, multiple iPads and upgraded MacBook Pros and Airs (BBG)

• Levi Strauss raised its revenue outlook, expecting sales growth to outweigh the effect of Trump tariffs (BBG)

• BP signals strong oil production, energy trading and higher profit margins (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Fed's Daly sees two rate cuts in 2025, says firms are negotiating to split up tariff costs (BBG)

• ECB's Schnabel says rates are "in a good place" and the bar for another rate cut is "very high" (BBG)

TARIFFS 

• Trump threatens to 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, to take effect on 1-Aug if better terms are not negotiated (BBG)

• Trump escalates Canada trade war with 35% tariff, also says he's eyeing blanket tariffs of 15-20% on most trading partners (BBG)

• US consumers seen feeling hit from 50% tariffs on Brazil, particularly on coffee, orange juice (AX)

• South Korea concludes latest round of talks with US, touting manufacturing partnership, aim of accelerating negotiations (BBG)

ECONOMY

• China's export growth likely rose to 5.0% in June as exporters rushed amid trade tensions (RT)

• UK GDP down 0.1% in May, after falling 0.3% in April as consumers and companies struggled to bounce back from US tariffs and raft of tax increases (BBG)

• PBOC adviser urges US$209bn of stimulus to strengthen consumption and counter tariff drag on growth (BBG)

• US core CPI forecast to accelerate on annual basis in June for first time since January as tariffs start to impact (BBG)

• Economists lower US recession odds to 33% from 45% in April, but still above January's 22% (WSJ)

ASX TODAY

Check out our Live Blog for the latest coverage and analysis for company announcements, market movements and economic updates.

• Abacus Storage King REIT presented with improved offer of $1.65 per share from Ki Group, Public Storage (AFR)

• AVJennings shareholders approve of AVID scheme of arrangement, shares to delist from ASX on 15-Aug (AVJ)

• Imugene to raise capital as early as this week, looking for approximately $35m (AFR)

• Spartan Resources holders approve acquisition by Ramelius Resources, 96.3% of votes cast were in favour, stock suspended from 22-Jul (SPR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Block, Fintechs: NYSE-listed Block shares tumbled 5.2% overnight after JPMorgan plans to start charging fees to fintech companies for access to customer data, according to Bloomberg. 

• Silver: Massive breakout for silver overnight, moving out of the recent ~US$36.5/oz trading range, up 3.79% to US$38.47 or the highest since October 2011. One of the market's only pure play silver producers, Adriatic Metals, is currently under offer. Meanwhile, there's a small list of explorers including ASL, ARD, IVR, MKR, MMA, POL, SVL, SS1 and USL.

• Palladium: Another niche metal making moves. Palladium prices rallied 5.7% overnight to US$1,201/t, the highest since October 2024. This could see some positive flows into names like Chalice Mining.

BROKER MOVES

• Brickworks downgraded to Neutral from Buy but target up to $34.25 from $29 (UBS)

• Computershare downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight; target cut to $33.70 from $34.60 (MS)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Mon 15 Jul: Metcash (MTS) – $0.095, Whitefield (WHI) – $0.006

• Tue 16 Jul: None

• Wed 17 Jul: WAM Global (WGB) – $0.04

• Thu 18 Jul: None

• Fri 19 Jul: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: The Reject Shop (TRS) 

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: Ballard Mining (BM1)

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 1:00 pm: China Balance of Trade (Jun)